How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Colorado Senate
John Hickenlooper vs Mark Baisley
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2599
Raised $9.3M against $138K for Mark Baisley.
- Cash weight 2099
$2.1M in the bank against $28K for Mark Baisley. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $510K helping John Hickenlooper and $0 helping Mark Baisley.
- Early vote weight 1562
Registered Democrats cast 32% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 3.7 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for John Hickenlooper.
- Activity weight 1025
$435K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 252
Raised $138K against $9.3M for John Hickenlooper.
- Cash weight 201
$28K in the bank against $2.1M for John Hickenlooper. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Mark Baisley and $510K helping John Hickenlooper.
- Early vote weight 1538
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 3.7 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Mark Baisley.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $28K against $2.1M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
John Hickenlooper leads by 20.0 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 565,525 votes; a one point swing is about 14,159 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.2 and D +28.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Denver, a projected net 217,399 votes; Boulder, a projected net 109,764 votes; Arapahoe, a projected net 98,395 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: El Paso, R +1.6, 11.9% of the vote; Douglas, R +1.2, 7.1% of the vote; Pueblo, D +7.5, 2.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, John Hickenlooper runs furthest behind in Weld, Larimer, Boulder. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 56 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.08 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 59 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.67 points; Incomes $50K to $124K, 54% of voters, 59 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.69 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for John Hickenlooper: Immigration voters 31 to 66, Small counties 47 to 50, Midsize counties 50 to 47. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.1M cash against $28K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 32% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 3.7 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points toward John Hickenlooper. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Mark Baisley's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party.
- Close the gap
Mark Baisley trails by 20.0 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 282,763 voters switching sides, or 565,525 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +28.3 and D +11.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Weld, a projected net 29,245 votes; Mesa, a projected net 14,189 votes; Elbert, a projected net 8,077 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: El Paso, R +1.6, 11.9% of the vote; Douglas, R +1.2, 7.1% of the vote; Pueblo, D +7.5, 2.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mark Baisley runs furthest behind in Adams, Arapahoe, Pueblo. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 42 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.08 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 39 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.67 points; Incomes $50K to $124K, 54% of voters, 38 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.69 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mark Baisley: Health care and Social Security voters 24 to 73, Corruption voters 25 to 73, Asian and other voters 26 to 71. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$28K cash against $2.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 3.7 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points away from Mark Baisley. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- John Hickenlooper's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $510K helping John Hickenlooper and $0 helping Mark Baisley.
The map for Hickenlooper
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | D +65.3 | 11.8% | +217,399 |
| Boulder | D +61.2 | 6.3% | +109,764 |
| Arapahoe | D +33.5 | 10.4% | +98,395 |
| Jefferson | D +28.2 | 11.5% | +91,591 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | R +1.6 | 11.9% | -5,320 |
| Douglas | R +1.2 | 7.1% | -2,457 |
| Pueblo | D +7.5 | 2.7% | +5,784 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weld | R +19.1 | 5.4% | -29,245 |
| Larimer | D +22.0 | 7% | +43,550 |
| Boulder | D +61.2 | 6.3% | +109,764 |
The coalition
Hickenlooper against Baisley among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202473% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Incomes $50K to $124K54% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- College graduates52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Midsize counties7% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +20.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +28.3 and D +11.2
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +12.8
- Early vote effect
- D +0.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Hickenlooper | Baisley | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $9.3M | $138K |
| Spent | $7.5M | $111K |
| Cash on hand | $2.1M | $28K |
| Outside money for | $510K | $0 |
| Google ads | $435K | $0 |
The early vote
Colorado, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,319,994
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +7.1
- Forecast expected
- D +3.3
- Against expectation
- 3.7 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.