How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida Senate
Angie Nixon vs Ashley Moody
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2538
Raised $8.2M against $13.3M for Ashley Moody.
- Cash weight 203
$265K in the bank against $8.5M for Ashley Moody. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1536
Outside groups spent $6.5M helping Angie Nixon and $11.7M helping Ashley Moody.
- Early vote weight 1540
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.89 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Angie Nixon.
- Activity weight 1050
14 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $83K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $265K against $8.5M.
- Money weight 2562
Raised $13.3M against $8.2M for Angie Nixon.
- Cash weight 2097
$8.5M in the bank against $265K for Angie Nixon. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1564
Outside groups spent $11.7M helping Ashley Moody and $6.5M helping Angie Nixon.
- Early vote weight 1560
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.89 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Ashley Moody.
- Activity weight 10100
5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $669K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Angie Nixon trails by 5.1 and wins 18% of simulations. Closing it takes about 229,523 voters switching sides, or 459,046 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.4 and D +2.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +5.7. Your best recent poll is St. Pete Polls at R +1.7; your worst is YouGov for N+ Univision at R +10.1. 23 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Broward, a projected net 205,877 votes; Orange, a projected net 113,226 votes; Palm Beach, a projected net 63,975 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Miami-Dade, D +2.3, 9.2% of the vote; Palm Beach, D +10.4, 6.9% of the vote; Hillsborough, D +4.6, 6.3% of the vote; Pinellas, D +3.2, 5.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Angie Nixon runs furthest behind in Sumter, Collier, Lake. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 79% of voters, 50 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.96 points; White voters, 69% of voters, 38 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.46 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 67% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.35 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Angie Nixon: Immigration voters 18 to 80, Midsize counties 38 to 60, White voters 38 to 59. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$265K cash against $8.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points away from Angie Nixon. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Ashley Moody's strongest asset
Activity: 5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Protect the lead
Ashley Moody leads by 5.1 in the forecast and wins 82% of simulations. The cushion is about 459,046 votes; a one point swing is about 44,654 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +2.1 and R +12.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +5.7. Your best recent poll is YouGov for N+ Univision at R +10.1; your worst is St. Pete Polls at R +1.7. 23 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lee, a projected net 73,962 votes; Collier, a projected net 54,165 votes; Marion, a projected net 47,663 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Miami-Dade, D +2.3, 9.2% of the vote; Palm Beach, D +10.4, 6.9% of the vote; Hillsborough, D +4.6, 6.3% of the vote; Pinellas, D +3.2, 5.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ashley Moody runs furthest behind in Miami-Dade, Broward, Duval. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 79% of voters, 48 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.96 points; White voters, 69% of voters, 59 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.46 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 67% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.35 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ashley Moody: Black voters 19 to 78, Independents 29 to 66, Corruption voters 35 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$8.5M cash against $265K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points toward Ashley Moody. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Angie Nixon's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Nixon
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broward | D +29.0 | 7.9% | +205,877 |
| Orange | D +22.5 | 5.6% | +113,226 |
| Palm Beach | D +10.4 | 6.9% | +63,975 |
| Leon | D +28.3 | 1.6% | +39,494 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | D +2.3 | 9.2% | +19,109 |
| Palm Beach | D +10.4 | 6.9% | +63,975 |
| Hillsborough | D +4.6 | 6.3% | +25,826 |
| Pinellas | D +3.2 | 5.1% | +14,540 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter | R +35.3 | 1% | -32,680 |
| Collier | R +30.1 | 2% | -54,165 |
| Lake | R +20.2 | 2% | -36,814 |
The coalition
Nixon against Moody among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties79% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.0
- White voters69% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202467% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters without a degree61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties18% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.9
- White voters69% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +5.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +2.1 and R +12.4
- Polling average
- R +5.7
- Partisan lean
- R +11.7
- Early vote effect
- R +2.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 378 LV | R +6.7 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +6.2 |
| YouGov for N+ Univision | 0 | 825 RV | R +10.1 |
| University of North Florida | 0 | 1,471 LV | R +3.6 |
| co/efficient (R) | 0 | 1,014 LV | R +4.2 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 4,823 LV | R +8.2 |
| New York Times/Siena | 0 | 813 LV | R +6.7 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 515 LV | R +8.3 |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 0 | 916 LV | R +6.1 |
| Workbench Strategy for the Nixon campaign (D) | 0 | 600 LV | R +3.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 0 | 1,200 LV | R +4.0 |
| Big Data Poll | 0 | 1,129 LV | R +9.0 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Nixon | Moody | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $8.2M | $13.3M |
| Spent | $710K | $2.8M |
| Cash on hand | $265K | $8.5M |
| Outside money for | $6.5M | $11.7M |
| Google ads | $83K | $669K |
- New Deal for All against Ashley Moody$3.1M
- AB PAC for Angie Nixon$2.5M
- Stronger Safer Nation against Angie Nixon$2.3M
- Black Voters Matter Action PAC for Angie Nixon$568K
- Senate Leadership Fund for Ashley Moody$280K
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$4.0M
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 4,717,903
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +2.5
- Forecast expected
- D +4.8
- Against expectation
- 7.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved the Florida Senate race for Ashley Moody's seat from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Source
- 2026-08-31Charlamagne tha God host, leans other
Gave Laura Loomer Donkey of the Day on The Breakfast Club over her attacks on Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon. Source
- 2026-08-20Laura Ingraham host, leans R
Called DSA member Angie Nixon's Democratic Senate primary win the best midterm news for the GOP since Platner. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-27Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announced in
Florida appearance announced; city not specified. Source
- 2026-10-25Angie Nixon rally in Eatonville
Sunday rally at Macedonia Missionary Baptist Church. Source
- 2026-10-24Ashley Moody event in Clearwater
Saturday campaign stop with Rep. Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee for governor. Source
- 2026-10-20Ro Khanna event in Orlando
Khanna was scheduled to campaign with Nixon in Orlando. Source
- 2026-10-20Angie Nixon town hall in Orlando
Young voters town hall at the University of Central Florida with Rep. Ro Khanna. Source
- 2026-10-19Ashley Moody tour stop in Plant City
Bus tour stop in her hometown to open early voting in Hillsborough County, with Rep. Byron Donalds and state Sen. Bryan Avila. Source
- 2026-10-19Ashley Moody rally in Indian Rocks Beach
Rally of about 100 people at The Original Crabby Bill's with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. Source
- 2026-10-18Bernie Sanders rally in Gainesville
Sanders was scheduled to hold a Gainesville event with Nixon. Source
- 2026-10-18Angie Nixon rally in Gainesville
Scheduled stop on the Fighting Oligarchy tour with Sen. Bernie Sanders, per the published tour schedule. Source
- 2026-10-18Angie Nixon rally in Tallahassee
Rally with Sen. Bernie Sanders, where Nixon addressed the crowd on the final day of his Florida swing. Source
- 2026-10-17Angie Nixon rally in Tampa
Rain soaked Fighting Oligarchy rally with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the courtyard of the Cuban Club in Ybor City. Source
- 2026-10-17Angie Nixon rally in Melbourne
Scheduled stop on the Fighting Oligarchy tour with Sen. Bernie Sanders, per the published tour schedule. Source