How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Colorado Governor
Phil Weiser vs Victor Marx
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2561
Raised $1.7M against $1.1M for Victor Marx.
- Cash weight 2082
$725K in the bank against $158K for Victor Marx.
- Early vote weight 1562
Registered Democrats cast 32% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 3.7 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.84 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Phil Weiser.
- Money weight 2539
Raised $1.1M against $1.7M for Phil Weiser.
- Cash weight 2018
$158K in the bank against $725K for Phil Weiser.
- Early vote weight 1538
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 3.7 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.84 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Victor Marx.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Phil Weiser leads by 21.6 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 611,468 votes; a one point swing is about 14,187 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +12.3 and D +30.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Denver, a projected net 232,145 votes; Boulder, a projected net 116,205 votes; Arapahoe, a projected net 100,502 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: El Paso, D +0.1, 11.8% of the vote; Douglas, D +2.0, 7.1% of the vote; Pueblo, D +2.5, 2.7% of the vote; Garfield, D +10.6, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Phil Weiser runs furthest behind in Weld, Pueblo, Boulder. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 56 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.09 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 59 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.67 points; Incomes $50K to $124K, 54% of voters, 60 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.69 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Phil Weiser: Immigration voters 31 to 66, Small counties 46 to 50, Midsize counties 49 to 47. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$725K cash against $158K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 32% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 3.7 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points toward Phil Weiser. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Victor Marx's strongest asset
Money: Raised $1.1M against $1.7M for Phil Weiser.
- Close the gap
Victor Marx trails by 21.6 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 305,734 voters switching sides, or 611,468 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +30.4 and D +12.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Weld, a projected net 26,712 votes; Mesa, a projected net 12,703 votes; Elbert, a projected net 7,867 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: El Paso, D +0.1, 11.8% of the vote; Douglas, D +2.0, 7.1% of the vote; Pueblo, D +2.5, 2.7% of the vote; Garfield, D +10.6, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Victor Marx runs furthest behind in Arapahoe, Adams. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 41 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.09 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 37 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.67 points; Incomes $50K to $124K, 54% of voters, 37 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.69 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Victor Marx: Health care and Social Security voters 24 to 73, Corruption voters 24 to 73, Asian and other voters 25 to 72. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$158K cash against $725K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,319,994 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 3.7 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points away from Victor Marx. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Phil Weiser's strongest asset
Cash: $725K in the bank against $158K for Victor Marx.
The map for Weiser
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | D +68.1 | 12% | +232,145 |
| Boulder | D +63.6 | 6.4% | +116,205 |
| Arapahoe | D +34.2 | 10.4% | +100,502 |
| Jefferson | D +30.2 | 11.4% | +98,107 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | D +0.1 | 11.8% | +153 |
| Douglas | D +2.0 | 7.1% | +3,933 |
| Pueblo | D +2.5 | 2.7% | +1,937 |
| Garfield | D +10.6 | 1% | +2,876 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weld | R +17.7 | 5.3% | -26,712 |
| Pueblo | D +2.5 | 2.7% | +1,937 |
| Boulder | D +63.6 | 6.4% | +116,205 |
The coalition
Weiser against Marx among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202473% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Incomes $50K to $124K54% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Voters without a degree48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Midsize counties7% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +21.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +30.4 and D +12.3
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +12.8
- Early vote effect
- D +0.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Weiser | Marx | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.7M | $1.1M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $725K | $158K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Colorado, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,319,994
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +7.1
- Forecast expected
- D +3.3
- Against expectation
- 3.7 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-08-05Piers Morgan host, leans other
Interviewed Republican governor nominee Victor Marx, an interview 9News' Kyle Clark said contained false claims. Source
- 2026-08-04Kyle Clark reporter
Blasted Piers Morgan's Victor Marx interview as a rehash with false and misleading claims. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.