How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Maine Governor
Hannah Pingree vs Bobby Charles
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2570
Raised $1.2M against $509K for Bobby Charles.
- Cash weight 2075
$1.2M in the bank against $395K for Bobby Charles.
- Early vote weight 1577
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 23% for the other party. That is 2.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.91 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Hannah Pingree.
- Activity weight 1050
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2530
Raised $509K against $1.2M for Hannah Pingree.
- Cash weight 2025
$395K in the bank against $1.2M for Hannah Pingree.
- Early vote weight 1523
Registered Republicans cast 23% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 2.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.91 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Bobby Charles.
- Activity weight 1050
5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Hannah Pingree leads by 13.4 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 99,640 votes; a one point swing is about 3,704 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.8 and D +20.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +12.0. Your best recent poll is Maine People's Resource Center (D) at D +14.3; your worst is Marist College at R +2.0. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Cumberland, a projected net 78,385 votes; York, a projected net 22,755 votes; Hancock, a projected net 6,549 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Penobscot, R +5.8, 10.4% of the vote; Kennebec, D +2.1, 8.9% of the vote; Androscoggin, R +1.7, 7.1% of the vote; Oxford, R +7.0, 4.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Hannah Pingree runs furthest behind in Aroostook, Piscataquis, Lincoln. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 95% of voters, 52 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.75 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 77% of voters, 54 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.84 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 56 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Hannah Pingree: Immigration voters 20 to 72, Incomes $125K and up 47 to 45, Midsize counties 48 to 44. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $395K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 23% for the other party. That is 2.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points away from Hannah Pingree. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Bobby Charles's strongest asset
Activity: 5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Bobby Charles trails by 13.4 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 49,820 voters switching sides, or 99,640 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +20.8 and D +5.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +12.0. Your best recent poll is Marist College at R +2.0; your worst is Maine People's Resource Center (D) at D +14.3. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Aroostook, a projected net 8,181 votes; Somerset, a projected net 5,450 votes; Penobscot, a projected net 4,422 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Penobscot, R +5.8, 10.4% of the vote; Kennebec, D +2.1, 8.9% of the vote; Androscoggin, R +1.7, 7.1% of the vote; Oxford, R +7.0, 4.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Bobby Charles runs furthest behind in York, Washington, Hancock. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 95% of voters, 40 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.75 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 77% of voters, 38 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.84 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 36 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Bobby Charles: Large counties 24 to 68, Health care and Social Security voters 24 to 68, Corruption voters 26 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$395K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 23% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 2.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points toward Bobby Charles. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Hannah Pingree's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Pingree
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland | D +44.1 | 24% | +78,385 |
| York | D +19.6 | 15.7% | +22,755 |
| Hancock | D +20.0 | 4.4% | +6,549 |
| Knox | D +25.5 | 3.2% | +6,054 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penobscot | R +5.8 | 10.4% | -4,422 |
| Kennebec | D +2.1 | 8.9% | +1,374 |
| Androscoggin | R +1.7 | 7.1% | -886 |
| Oxford | R +7.0 | 4.1% | -2,125 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroostook | R +25.7 | 4.3% | -8,181 |
| Piscataquis | R +27.0 | 1.2% | -2,452 |
| Lincoln | D +15.4 | 3% | +3,378 |
The coalition
Pingree against Charles among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters95% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.8
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202477% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Incomes $125K and up10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +13.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +20.8 and D +5.8
- Polling average
- D +12.0
- Partisan lean
- D +8.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.5
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,514 LV | D +9.7 |
| Marist College | 0 | 560 LV | R +2.0 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice (R) | 0 | 413 LV | D +12.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 0 | 783 LV | D +13.0 |
| Suffolk University | 4 | 500 LV | D +9.8 |
| The Washington Post-Schar School | 10 | 800 LV | D +12.0 |
| Marist College | 11 | 1,505 RV | D +9.7 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 14 | 1,144 LV | D +11.1 |
| co/efficient (R) | 15 | 1,240 LV | D +12.6 |
| Maine People's Resource Center (D) | 16 | 684 LV | D +14.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP | 23 | 982 LV | D +12.4 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 23 | 619 LV | D +12.4 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Pingree | Charles | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.2M | $509K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $395K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Maine, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 290,377
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +24.2
- Forecast expected
- D +26.2
- Against expectation
- 2.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-29Bobby Charles announced in Auburn
Open one on one conversations with voters, including critics, at Androscoggin County Republican headquarters in the Auburn Mall. Source
- 2026-10-17Elizabeth Warren rally in Portland
Warren rallied about 1,000 people at Deering Oaks Park on the No Kings day of action with Jackson and Pingree. Source
- 2026-10-17Hannah Pingree rally in Portland
Greeted diners at Becky's Diner and spoke at an Indivisible Greater Portland rally with Senate candidate Troy Jackson and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Source
- 2026-10-12Bobby Charles town hall in Wells
Held a town hall with former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and pledged day one executive action. Source
- 2026-10-08Hannah Pingree debate in Bangor
Second debate at the Gracie Theatre at Husson University, hosted by the Portland Press Herald, Maine Public and NEWSCENTER Maine. Source
- 2026-10-08Bobby Charles debate in Bangor
Second debate at the Gracie Theatre at Husson University, hosted by the Portland Press Herald, Maine Public and NEWSCENTER Maine. Source
- 2026-10-03Bobby Charles town hall in Penobscot
Spoke to about 30 people at the Penobscot Community School gym with local Republican candidates and State Rep. Russ White. Source
- 2026-10-01Hannah Pingree debate in Portland
First gubernatorial debate, hosted by News Center Maine and the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, with independent Rick Bennett. Source
- 2026-10-01Bobby Charles debate in Portland
First gubernatorial debate, hosted by News Center Maine and the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, with independent Rick Bennett. Source