How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Idaho Senate
Todd Achilles, independent vs Jim Risch
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2530
Raised $1.6M against $3.8M for Jim Risch.
- Cash weight 205
$194K in the bank against $3.5M for Jim Risch. As of 06/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Todd Achilles.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $194K against $3.5M.
- Money weight 2570
Raised $3.8M against $1.6M for Todd Achilles.
- Cash weight 2095
$3.5M in the bank against $194K for Todd Achilles. As of 06/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Jim Risch.
- Activity weight 1025
$156K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Todd Achilles trails by 18.9 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 68,436 voters switching sides, or 136,873 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +25.6 and R +11.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.2. Your best recent poll is Advanced Targeting Research at D +4.1; your worst is Peak Insights (R) at R +22.1. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Ada, a projected net 20,387 votes; Blaine, a projected net 5,184 votes; Latah, a projected net 2,597 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +9.4, 29.8% of the vote; Bannock, R +3.8, 4.4% of the vote; Valley, R +4.2, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Todd Achilles runs furthest behind in Idaho, Bonner, Jefferson. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 92% of voters, 36 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.59 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 37 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.23 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 35 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Todd Achilles: Immigration voters 14 to 79, Small counties 30 to 62, Incomes $125K and up 32 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$194K cash against $3.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Todd Achilles. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Jim Risch's strongest asset
Cash: $3.5M in the bank against $194K for Todd Achilles.
- Protect the lead
Jim Risch leads by 18.9 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 136,873 votes; a one point swing is about 3,629 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.8 and R +25.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.2. Your best recent poll is Peak Insights (R) at R +22.1; your worst is Advanced Targeting Research at D +4.1. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Kootenai, a projected net 28,711 votes; Canyon, a projected net 23,242 votes; Bonneville, a projected net 12,975 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +9.4, 29.8% of the vote; Bannock, R +3.8, 4.4% of the vote; Valley, R +4.2, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jim Risch runs furthest behind in Latah, Bannock, Nez Perce. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 92% of voters, 57 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.59 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 57 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.23 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 58 to 35, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jim Risch: Independents 22 to 64, Latino voters 36 to 56, Moderates 35 to 55. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.5M cash against $194K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Jim Risch. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Todd Achilles's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Achilles
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | I +9.4 | 29.8% | +20,387 |
| Blaine | I +46.6 | 1.5% | +5,184 |
| Latah | I +15.0 | 2.4% | +2,597 |
| Teton | I +18.9 | 0.7% | +1,010 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | I +9.4 | 29.8% | +20,387 |
| Bannock | R +3.8 | 4.4% | -1,202 |
| Valley | R +4.2 | 0.8% | -250 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | R +59.3 | 1.2% | -4,989 |
| Bonner | R +35.6 | 3.3% | -8,586 |
| Jefferson | R +59.8 | 1.6% | -7,080 |
The coalition
Achilles against Risch among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters92% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties34% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.7
- Incomes $125K and up12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +18.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +11.8 and R +25.6
- Polling average
- R +18.2
- Partisan lean
- R +36.0
- Early vote effect
- R +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights (R) | 0 | 500 LV | R +22.1 |
| VoteNexus (D) | 0 | 700 LV | R +7.4 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 15 | 500 LV | R +20.6 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 29 | 700 RV | I +4.1 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Achilles | Risch | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.6M | $3.8M |
| Spent | $506K | $2.2M |
| Cash on hand | $194K | $3.5M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $156K |
The early vote
Idaho, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 151,317
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +43.4
- Forecast expected
- R +40.7
- Against expectation
- 2.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.