How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Alabama Governor
Doug Jones vs Tommy Tuberville
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2527
Raised $5.9M against $15.7M for Tommy Tuberville.
- Cash weight 2025
$2.2M in the bank against $6.5M for Tommy Tuberville.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Doug Jones.
- Activity weight 1025
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2573
Raised $15.7M against $5.9M for Doug Jones.
- Cash weight 2075
$6.5M in the bank against $2.2M for Doug Jones.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Tommy Tuberville.
- Activity weight 1025
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Doug Jones trails by 12.2 and wins 3% of simulations. Closing it takes about 104,431 voters switching sides, or 208,861 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +19.8 and R +4.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +7.4. Your best recent poll is Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News at R +10.1; your worst is Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) at R +11.2. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Jefferson, a projected net 87,075 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 33,607 votes; Madison, a projected net 15,926 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Madison, D +11.0, 8.5% of the vote; Mobile, D +6.8, 7.7% of the vote; Tuscaloosa, D +3.7, 3.9% of the vote; Lee, R +9.6, 3.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Doug Jones runs furthest behind in Cullman, Marshall, DeKalb. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 41 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.38 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 63% of voters, 43 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.16 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 48 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Doug Jones: Immigration voters 16 to 83, White voters 33 to 65, Small counties 35 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.2M cash against $6.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Doug Jones. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Tommy Tuberville's strongest asset
Cash: $6.5M in the bank against $2.2M for Doug Jones.
- Protect the lead
Tommy Tuberville leads by 12.2 in the forecast and wins 97% of simulations. The cushion is about 208,861 votes; a one point swing is about 8,581 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.3 and R +19.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +7.4. Your best recent poll is Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) at R +11.2; your worst is Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News at R +10.1. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Baldwin, a projected net 40,226 votes; Cullman, a projected net 24,679 votes; Marshall, a projected net 19,703 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Madison, D +11.0, 8.5% of the vote; Mobile, D +6.8, 7.7% of the vote; Tuscaloosa, D +3.7, 3.9% of the vote; Lee, R +9.6, 3.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Tommy Tuberville runs furthest behind in Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, Mobile. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 57 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.38 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 63% of voters, 56 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.16 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 50 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Tommy Tuberville: Black voters 20 to 79, Independents 23 to 74, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 35 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.5M cash against $2.2M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Tommy Tuberville. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Doug Jones's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Jones
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | D +36.8 | 13.8% | +87,075 |
| Montgomery | D +45.7 | 4.3% | +33,607 |
| Madison | D +11.0 | 8.5% | +15,926 |
| Mobile | D +6.8 | 7.7% | +9,077 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madison | D +11.0 | 8.5% | +15,926 |
| Mobile | D +6.8 | 7.7% | +9,077 |
| Tuscaloosa | D +3.7 | 3.9% | +2,483 |
| Lee | R +9.6 | 3.1% | -5,137 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cullman | R +77.8 | 1.8% | -24,679 |
| Marshall | R +66.9 | 1.7% | -19,703 |
| DeKalb | R +68.6 | 1.2% | -14,651 |
The coalition
Jones against Tuberville among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters without a degree68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202463% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Women55% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- White voters76% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Small counties26% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +12.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +4.3 and R +19.8
- Polling average
- R +7.4
- Partisan lean
- R +29.4
- Early vote effect
- R +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News | 0 | 500 LV | R +10.1 |
| Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) | 20 | 800 RV | R +11.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Jones | Tuberville | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.9M | $15.7M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $2.2M | $6.5M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for Alabama yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-22Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Alabama governor race between Tommy Tuberville and Doug Jones from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.