2026 forecast
Louisiana Senate forecast
Jamie Davis vs Julia Letlow, an open seat. The model has Letlow ahead by 7.3 points, winning 88 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
64 parishesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +0.6 and R +15.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +5.2 | |
| Hart Research (D) | 500 LV | 20d | R +4.8 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 518 RV | 79d | R +4.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Davis | Letlow |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 42.3 | 57.7 |
| Women | 52% | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 46.6 | 53.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 45.8 | 54.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 45.0 | 55.0 |
| 65+ | 30% | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| RaceWhite | 63% | 28.9 | 71.1 |
| Black | 30% | 80.0 | 20.0 |
| Latino | 4% | 52.9 | 47.1 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 62.4 | 37.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 29% | 24.0 | 76.0 |
| White women | 33% | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| Black men | 14% | 75.4 | 24.6 |
| Black women | 15% | 84.3 | 15.7 |
| Latino men | 2% | 50.8 | 49.2 |
| Latino women | 2% | 55.0 | 45.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 62.4 | 37.6 |