How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Alabama Senate
Everett Wess vs Barry Moore
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 253
Raised $117K against $4.5M for Barry Moore.
- Cash weight 203
$18K in the bank against $627K for Barry Moore. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Everett Wess and $16.8M helping Barry Moore.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.94 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Everett Wess.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $18K against $627K.
- Money weight 2598
Raised $4.5M against $117K for Everett Wess.
- Cash weight 2097
$627K in the bank against $18K for Everett Wess. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $16.8M helping Barry Moore and $0 helping Everett Wess.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.94 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Barry Moore.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Everett Wess trails by 15.6 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 133,841 voters switching sides, or 267,681 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +23.8 and R +7.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +14.5. Your best recent poll is Chism Strategies (D) at R +9.4; your worst is The Alabama Poll at R +21.2. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Jefferson, a projected net 73,731 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 29,645 votes; Dallas, a projected net 6,158 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Madison, D +3.5, 8.5% of the vote; Mobile, R +0.9, 7.8% of the vote; Tuscaloosa, D +0.5, 3.9% of the vote; Talladega, R +11.8, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Everett Wess runs furthest behind in Coffee, Cullman, Baldwin. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 67% of voters, 41 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.37 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 63% of voters, 42 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.17 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 44 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.01 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Everett Wess: Immigration voters 14 to 85, White voters 31 to 68, Small counties 35 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$18K cash against $627K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Everett Wess. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Barry Moore's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $16.8M helping Barry Moore and $0 helping Everett Wess.
- Protect the lead
Barry Moore leads by 15.6 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 267,681 votes; a one point swing is about 8,580 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.5 and R +23.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +14.5. Your best recent poll is The Alabama Poll at R +21.2; your worst is Chism Strategies (D) at R +9.4. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Baldwin, a projected net 47,053 votes; Cullman, a projected net 24,523 votes; Shelby, a projected net 21,319 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Madison, D +3.5, 8.5% of the vote; Mobile, R +0.9, 7.8% of the vote; Tuscaloosa, D +0.5, 3.9% of the vote; Talladega, R +11.8, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Barry Moore runs furthest behind in Talladega, Jefferson, Tuscaloosa. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 67% of voters, 58 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.37 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 63% of voters, 57 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.17 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 56 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.01 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Barry Moore: Black voters 20 to 80, Independents 25 to 74, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 39 to 60. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$627K cash against $18K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Barry Moore. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Everett Wess's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Wess
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | D +31.5 | 13.7% | +73,731 |
| Montgomery | D +40.2 | 4.3% | +29,645 |
| Dallas | D +46.3 | 0.8% | +6,158 |
| Macon | D +73.3 | 0.4% | +5,075 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madison | D +3.5 | 8.5% | +5,075 |
| Mobile | R +0.9 | 7.8% | -1,168 |
| Tuscaloosa | D +0.5 | 3.9% | +338 |
| Talladega | R +11.8 | 1.5% | -3,050 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | R +57.2 | 1% | -9,911 |
| Cullman | R +78.7 | 1.8% | -24,523 |
| Baldwin | R +53.0 | 5.2% | -47,053 |
The coalition
Wess against Moore among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters without a degree67% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202463% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Women54% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- White voters76% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Small counties26% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +15.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +7.5 and R +23.8
- Polling average
- R +14.5
- Partisan lean
- R +29.4
- Early vote effect
- R +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Alabama Poll | 0 | 600 LV | R +21.2 |
| Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News | 0 | 500 LV | R +13.8 |
| Chism Strategies (D) | 0 | 695 LV | R +9.4 |
| Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) | 20 | 800 RV | R +19.3 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Wess | Moore | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $117K | $4.5M |
| Spent | $62K | $3.3M |
| Cash on hand | $18K | $627K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $16.8M |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for Alabama yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-02Donald Trump rally in Mobile
Rally at the Mitchell Center with the GOP Senate candidate. Source