2026 forecast
Idaho Senate forecast
Todd Achilles vs Jim Risch. The model has Risch ahead by 12.5 points, winning 98 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
44 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +5.2 and R +19.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +0.8 | |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 700 RV | 23d | D +4.9 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 57d | R +30.9 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 608 LV | 63d | R +2.0 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,213 LV | 71d | R +24.6 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 774 RV | 130d | R +6.5 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Achilles | Risch |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 37.2 | 58.2 |
| Women | 51% | 45.5 | 49.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 45.3 | 49.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 41.5 | 53.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 39.0 | 56.4 |
| 65+ | 29% | 42.1 | 53.4 |
| RaceWhite | 87% | 38.5 | 56.9 |
| Latino | 8% | 54.2 | 41.0 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 68.3 | 26.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 33.2 | 62.3 |
| White women | 45% | 43.4 | 52.0 |
| Latino men | 4% | 51.3 | 43.8 |
| Latino women | 4% | 57.5 | 37.8 |
| All other races | 5% | 68.3 | 26.4 |