2026 forecast
Alabama Senate forecast
Everett Wess vs Barry Moore, an open seat. The model has Moore ahead by 19.9 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
67 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +11.5 and R +27.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +21.8 | |
| Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) | 800 RV | 14d | R +19.0 |
| yes. every kid. | 601 LV | 90d | R +15.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Wess | Moore |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 35.3 | 62.5 |
| Women | 52% | 42.4 | 55.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 39.8 | 58.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 38.7 | 59.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 37.8 | 60.0 |
| 65+ | 31% | 40.1 | 57.8 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 23.7 | 74.0 |
| Black | 25% | 78.2 | 19.9 |
| Latino | 2% | 43.0 | 54.6 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 54.6 | 42.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 19.4 | 78.4 |
| White women | 37% | 27.6 | 70.2 |
| Black men | 12% | 74.2 | 23.8 |
| Black women | 13% | 81.9 | 16.2 |
| Latino men | 1% | 41.6 | 56.0 |
| Latino women | 1% | 44.4 | 53.4 |
| All other races | 3% | 54.6 | 42.7 |