How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Oregon Governor
Tina Kotek vs Christine Drazan
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2556
Raised $14.7M against $11.4M for Christine Drazan.
- Cash weight 2070
$4.5M in the bank against $1.9M for Christine Drazan.
- Early vote weight 1565
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 1,181,637 ballots in Oregon so far, against 31% for the other party. That is 2.3 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Tina Kotek.
- Activity weight 1025
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Money weight 2544
Raised $11.4M against $14.7M for Tina Kotek.
- Cash weight 2030
$1.9M in the bank against $4.5M for Tina Kotek.
- Early vote weight 1535
Registered Republicans cast 31% of the 1,181,637 ballots in Oregon so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 2.3 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Christine Drazan.
- Activity weight 1025
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Tina Kotek leads by 5.0 in the forecast and wins 80% of simulations. The cushion is about 102,866 votes; a one point swing is about 10,307 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +2.9 and D +12.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +0.7. Your best recent poll is DHM Research for The Oregonian at D +1.9; your worst is DHM Research/Oregon Public Broadcasting at R +1.7. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Multnomah, a projected net 236,143 votes; Washington, a projected net 62,087 votes; Lane, a projected net 31,184 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Clackamas, R +3.4, 10.8% of the vote; Deschutes, R +2.0, 5.5% of the vote; Lincoln, D +11.0, 1.3% of the vote; Clatsop, D +1.9, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Tina Kotek runs furthest behind in Klamath, Linn, Umatilla. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 49 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.30 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 53 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 64% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Tina Kotek: Immigration voters 23 to 74, Small counties 34 to 61, Midsize counties 38 to 59. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.5M cash against $1.9M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 1,181,637 ballots in Oregon so far, against 31% for the other party. That is 2.3 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points away from Tina Kotek. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Christine Drazan's strongest asset
Money: Raised $11.4M against $14.7M for Tina Kotek.
- Close the gap
Christine Drazan trails by 5.0 and wins 20% of simulations. Closing it takes about 51,433 voters switching sides, or 102,866 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +12.7 and R +2.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +0.7. Your best recent poll is DHM Research/Oregon Public Broadcasting at R +1.7; your worst is DHM Research for The Oregonian at D +1.9. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Douglas, a projected net 28,801 votes; Linn, a projected net 26,149 votes; Marion, a projected net 22,842 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Clackamas, R +3.4, 10.8% of the vote; Deschutes, R +2.0, 5.5% of the vote; Lincoln, D +11.0, 1.3% of the vote; Clatsop, D +1.9, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Christine Drazan runs furthest behind in Multnomah, Lane, Lincoln. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 48 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.30 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 44 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 64% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Christine Drazan: Corruption voters 30 to 67, Asian and other voters 30 to 67, Health care and Social Security voters 32 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.9M cash against $4.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 31% of the 1,181,637 ballots in Oregon so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 2.3 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points toward Christine Drazan. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Tina Kotek's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Kotek
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multnomah | D +60.1 | 19.1% | +236,143 |
| Washington | D +22.8 | 13.2% | +62,087 |
| Lane | D +16.1 | 9.4% | +31,184 |
| Benton | D +31.2 | 2.3% | +14,970 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | R +3.4 | 10.8% | -7,627 |
| Deschutes | R +2.0 | 5.5% | -2,266 |
| Lincoln | D +11.0 | 1.3% | +3,009 |
| Clatsop | D +1.9 | 1% | +399 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klamath | R +58.8 | 1.6% | -19,174 |
| Linn | R +40.7 | 3.1% | -26,149 |
| Umatilla | R +52.5 | 1.4% | -14,897 |
The coalition
Kotek against Drazan among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters86% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.3
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202475% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Large counties60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties30% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +5.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +12.7 and R +2.9
- Polling average
- R +0.7
- Partisan lean
- D +16.4
- Early vote effect
- R +0.6
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO (D) | 11 | 800 LV | D +1.8 |
| DHM Research for The Oregonian | 14 | 549 LV | D +1.9 |
| DHM Research/Oregon Public Broadcasting | 18 | 915 LV | R +1.7 |
| DHM Research | 36 | 600 LV | R +2.1 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Kotek | Drazan | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $14.7M | $11.4M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $4.5M | $1.9M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Oregon, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,181,637
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +10.5
- Forecast expected
- D +8.2
- Against expectation
- 2.3 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-06Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Oregon governor from Likely D to Lean D, citing Gov. Kotek's lethargic debate. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-13Tina Kotek debate in Bend
Final debate hosted by KTVZ and The Source, focused on development. Source
- 2026-10-13Christine Drazan debate in Bend
Final debate hosted by KTVZ and The Source, focused on development. Source
- 2026-10-07Tina Kotek debate in Medford
Live televised debate at KOBI TV NBC5 studios in partnership with Southern Oregon University. Source
- 2026-10-07Christine Drazan debate in Medford
Live televised debate at KOBI TV NBC5 studios in partnership with Southern Oregon University. Source
- 2026-10-01Tina Kotek debate in Eugene
First gubernatorial debate, held on the University of Oregon campus. Source
- 2026-10-01Christine Drazan debate in Eugene
First gubernatorial debate, held on the University of Oregon campus. Source