2026 forecast
Oregon Governor forecast
Tina Kotek vs Christine Drazan. The model has Kotek ahead by 9.9 points, winning 95 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
36 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.1 and D +2.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +0.7 | |
| DHM Research for The Oregonian | 549 LV | 8d | D +1.7 |
| DHM Research/Oregon Public Broadcasting | 915 LV | 12d | R +1.9 |
| DHM Research | 600 LV | 30d | R +2.3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 600 RV | 107d | R +0.6 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Kotek | Drazan |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 48.3 | 48.3 |
| Women | 54% | 57.5 | 39.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 54.9 | 41.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 53.7 | 43.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 51.1 | 45.6 |
| 65+ | 31% | 54.5 | 42.2 |
| RaceWhite | 82% | 48.9 | 47.7 |
| Black | 2% | 88.1 | 9.0 |
| Latino | 8% | 65.3 | 31.4 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 76.7 | 19.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 42.2 | 54.5 |
| White women | 45% | 54.3 | 42.3 |
| Latino men | 4% | 62.9 | 33.8 |
| Latino women | 4% | 67.8 | 28.9 |
| All other races | 9% | 76.7 | 19.6 |