How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2552
Raised $10.3M against $9.6M for Michele Tafoya.
- Cash weight 2044
$1.1M in the bank against $1.4M for Michele Tafoya. As of 07/22/2026.
- Air cover weight 1570
Outside groups spent $2.7M helping Peggy Flanagan and $1.1M helping Michele Tafoya.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.82 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Peggy Flanagan.
- Activity weight 10100
5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $447K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2548
Raised $9.6M against $10.3M for Peggy Flanagan.
- Cash weight 2056
$1.4M in the bank against $1.1M for Peggy Flanagan. As of 07/22/2026.
- Air cover weight 1530
Outside groups spent $1.1M helping Michele Tafoya and $2.7M helping Peggy Flanagan.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.82 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Michele Tafoya.
- Activity weight 1075
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 5 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $38K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Peggy Flanagan leads by 12.0 in the forecast and wins 98% of simulations. The cushion is about 336,808 votes; a one point swing is about 13,999 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.3 and D +18.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.8. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena at D +13.3; your worst is InsiderAdvantage at D +1.1. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Hennepin, a projected net 304,219 votes; Ramsey, a projected net 132,818 votes; Dakota, a projected net 33,048 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Anoka, D +3.4, 6.3% of the vote; Washington, D +9.5, 5.1% of the vote; Scott, R +6.7, 2.7% of the vote; Carver, R +9.7, 2.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Peggy Flanagan runs furthest behind in Carver, Washington, Wright. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 87% of voters, 52 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.36 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 55 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 59 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Peggy Flanagan: Immigration voters 21 to 77, Small counties 39 to 58, Midsize counties 48 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.1M cash against $1.4M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Peggy Flanagan. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Michele Tafoya's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Michele Tafoya trails by 12.0 and wins 2% of simulations. Closing it takes about 168,404 voters switching sides, or 336,808 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +18.8 and D +5.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.8. Your best recent poll is InsiderAdvantage at D +1.1; your worst is New York Times/Siena at D +13.3. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Wright, a projected net 20,248 votes; Sherburne, a projected net 13,803 votes; Stearns, a projected net 12,887 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Anoka, D +3.4, 6.3% of the vote; Washington, D +9.5, 5.1% of the vote; Scott, R +6.7, 2.7% of the vote; Carver, R +9.7, 2.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Michele Tafoya runs furthest behind in St. Louis, Olmsted, Blue Earth. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 87% of voters, 45 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.36 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 43 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 38 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Michele Tafoya: Black voters 17 to 80, Corruption voters 21 to 76, Asian and other voters 26 to 71. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.4M cash against $1.1M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Michele Tafoya. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Peggy Flanagan's strongest asset
Activity: 5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Flanagan
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin | D +47.0 | 23.1% | +304,219 |
| Ramsey | D +52.8 | 9% | +132,818 |
| Dakota | D +14.8 | 8% | +33,048 |
| St. Louis | D +30.5 | 3.7% | +31,501 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anoka | D +3.4 | 6.3% | +5,982 |
| Washington | D +9.5 | 5.1% | +13,668 |
| Scott | R +6.7 | 2.7% | -5,080 |
| Carver | R +9.7 | 2.1% | -5,610 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carver | R +9.7 | 2.1% | -5,610 |
| Washington | D +9.5 | 5.1% | +13,668 |
| Wright | R +28.2 | 2.6% | -20,248 |
The coalition
Flanagan against Tafoya among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters87% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202475% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties27% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
- Midsize counties27% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +12.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +18.8 and D +5.3
- Polling average
- D +8.8
- Partisan lean
- D +5.8
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 0 | 1,079 LV | D +4.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 0 | 1,182 LV | D +4.4 |
| New York Times/Siena | 0 | 752 LV | D +13.3 |
| Victory Insights for the Tafoya campaign (R) | 0 | 1,194 LV | D +5.3 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 0 | 714 LV | D +6.4 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 3 | 650 LV | D +2.4 |
| Mason-Dixon for the Star Tribune | 8 | 800 LV | D +4.8 |
| Morning Consult | 8 | 1,000 RV | D +3.5 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 8 | 856 LV | D +4.4 |
| GQR (D) | 11 | 800 LV | D +7.6 |
| Big Data Poll | 15 | 622 LV | D +1.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 16 | 1,200 LV | D +1.1 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/22/2026| Flanagan | Tafoya | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $10.3M | $9.6M |
| Spent | $5.5M | $4.0M |
| Cash on hand | $1.1M | $1.4M |
| Outside money for | $2.7M | $1.1M |
| Google ads | $447K | $38K |
- North Star Dawn PAC for Angie Craig$14.2M
- AB PAC for Peggy Flanagan$1.4M
- Minnesota Forward against Peggy Flanagan$1.1M
- Working America for Peggy Flanagan$162K
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$160K
The early vote
Minnesota, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 728,961
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +29.6
- Forecast expected
- D +30.7
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-26Guy Benson host, leans R
Interviewed Republican Michele Tafoya on The Guy Benson Show, asking if fraud and Somali gang violence resonate in a blue state; she said Peggy Flanagan is not an experiment worth retrying. Source
- 2026-10-22Cook Political Report analyst
Shifted the Minnesota Senate race between Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Source
- 2026-10-21Steve Kornacki analyst
On Today warned a tide seems to be working against Democrats in Minnesota's Flanagan vs Tafoya race. Source
- 2026-10-21Sandra Smith host
Pressed Michele Tafoya on whether a Trump campaign visit would help or hurt her. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Said he believes in Republican Michele Tafoya but would not predict a win. Source
- 2026-10-16Rich Baris analyst, leans R
Said Democrat Peggy Flanagan's lead had grown to four points. Source
- 2026-08-13Larry Kudlow host, leans R
Claimed Peggy Flanagan is pushing a Native American identity as cover for socialism, comparing her to Elizabeth Warren. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-01Pete Buttigieg announced in
Announced Sunday Minnesota stop; city not given, date inferred from weekday. Source
- 2026-10-16Peggy Flanagan debate in St. Paul
Only scheduled debate with Michele Tafoya, hosted by Minnesota Public Radio. Source
- 2026-10-16Peggy Flanagan tour stop in Moorhead
Got Your Back tour stop focused on affordability and farm policy. Source
- 2026-10-16Michele Tafoya debate in St. Paul
Only scheduled debate with Peggy Flanagan, hosted by Minnesota Public Radio. Source
- 2026-10-15Peggy Flanagan event in Apple Valley
Meet and greet with families alongside state Sen. Erin Maye Quade, per a campaign advisory. Source
- 2026-10-13Michele Tafoya event in St. Paul
News conference at the Capitol to unveil a five point public safety plan with leaders of the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association. Source
- 2026-10-10Peggy Flanagan event in Eden Prairie
Press conference on reproductive rights with Rep. Kelly Morrison and Planned Parenthood leaders Alexis McGill Johnson and Ruth Richardson. Source
- 2026-10-05Michele Tafoya event in Le Sueur
Farm roundtable and remarks with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, farmers and farm group leaders. Source
- 2026-10-04Peggy Flanagan event in Appleton
Stop outside a private prison being converted to a federal detention center, part of her Got Your Back tour of 30 stops in 30 days. Source