How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Montana Senate
Seth Bodnar, independent vs Kurt Alme
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2562
Raised $4.7M against $2.9M for Kurt Alme.
- Cash weight 2041
$999K in the bank against $1.5M for Kurt Alme. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1569
Outside groups spent $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar and $5.2M helping Kurt Alme.
- National tide weight 1584
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.19 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Seth Bodnar.
- Activity weight 1025
$23K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2538
Raised $2.9M against $4.7M for Seth Bodnar.
- Cash weight 2059
$1.5M in the bank against $999K for Seth Bodnar. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1531
Outside groups spent $5.2M helping Kurt Alme and $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar.
- National tide weight 1516
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.19 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Kurt Alme.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $104K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Seth Bodnar trails by 17.9 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 50,737 voters switching sides, or 101,475 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +24.2 and R +11.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.4. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) at D +12.3; your worst is American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local at D +0.7. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Missoula, a projected net 13,494 votes; Silver Bow, a projected net 2,763 votes; Glacier, a projected net 1,040 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Gallatin, D +1.6, 11.5% of the vote; Lewis and Clark, R +1.3, 7.0% of the vote; Park, R +6.4, 1.9% of the vote; Hill, R +9.8, 1.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Seth Bodnar runs furthest behind in Sanders, Madison, Gallatin. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 93% of voters, 29 to 20, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.64 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 29 to 20, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.56 points; Midsize counties, 61% of voters, 33 to 23, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Seth Bodnar: Immigration voters 12 to 9, Incomes $125K and up 25 to 17, Small counties 25 to 18. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$999K cash against $1.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.1 points away from Seth Bodnar. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Kurt Alme's strongest asset
Cash: $1.5M in the bank against $999K for Seth Bodnar.
- Protect the lead
Kurt Alme leads by 17.9 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 101,475 votes; a one point swing is about 2,827 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.5 and R +24.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.4. Your best recent poll is American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local at D +0.7; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) at D +12.3. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Flathead, a projected net 19,860 votes; Yellowstone, a projected net 16,663 votes; Ravalli, a projected net 11,045 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Gallatin, D +1.6, 11.5% of the vote; Lewis and Clark, R +1.3, 7.0% of the vote; Park, R +6.4, 1.9% of the vote; Hill, R +9.8, 1.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Kurt Alme runs furthest behind in Custer, Silver Bow, Hill. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 93% of voters, 20 to 29, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.64 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 20 to 29, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.56 points; Midsize counties, 61% of voters, 23 to 33, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Kurt Alme: Independents 30 to 43, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 29 to 42, Corruption voters 29 to 42. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.5M cash against $999K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.1 points toward Kurt Alme. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Seth Bodnar's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Bodnar
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missoula | I +20.1 | 11.9% | +13,494 |
| Silver Bow | I +15.8 | 3.1% | +2,763 |
| Glacier | I +21.8 | 0.8% | +1,040 |
| Gallatin | I +1.6 | 11.5% | +1,021 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallatin | I +1.6 | 11.5% | +1,021 |
| Lewis and Clark | R +1.3 | 7% | -505 |
| Park | R +6.4 | 1.9% | -674 |
| Hill | R +9.8 | 1.1% | -637 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders | R +61.0 | 1.3% | -4,640 |
| Madison | R +50.0 | 1% | -2,857 |
| Gallatin | I +1.6 | 11.5% | +1,021 |
The coalition
Bodnar against Alme among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters93% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202471% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Midsize counties61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Incomes $125K and up13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +17.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +11.5 and R +24.3
- Polling average
- I +4.4
- Partisan lean
- R +19.1
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 667 LV | I +7.2 |
| Aspect Strategic (I) | 0 | 500 LV | I +1.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education Reform (D) | 0 | 410 LV | I +8.2 |
| Montana State University Billings Mountain State Poll | 0 | 700 A | I +3.8 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 3 | 500 LV | I +2.6 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) | 7 | 405 LV | I +12.3 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | 21 | 600 RV | I +0.7 |
| Aspect Strategic (I) | 30 | 715 LV | I +2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 36 | 625 LV | I +4.7 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 38 | 845 RV | I +6.9 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Bodnar | Alme | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $4.7M | $2.9M |
| Spent | $2.3M | $534K |
| Cash on hand | $999K | $1.5M |
| Outside money for | $11.7M | $5.2M |
| Google ads | $23K | $104K |
- Independent PAC, IE supporting Bodnar, filed Oct 20 Source$766K
The early vote
Montana, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 288,458
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +13.7
- Forecast expected
- D +13.4
- Against expectation
- 0.3 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-14Donald Trump rally in Kalispell
Majestic Valley Arena rally, same day as the Arizona stop. Source