2026 forecast
Maryland Governor forecast
Wes Moore vs Dan Cox. The model has Moore ahead by 33.9 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
24 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +39.4 and D +28.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +35.5 | |
| UMBC Institute of Politics | 776 LV | 12d | D +26.6 |
| Zenith Research | 800 LV | 67d | D +27.2 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Moore | Cox |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 56.8 | 30.9 |
| Women | 53% | 64.4 | 23.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 61.3 | 25.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 59.0 | 28.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 60.9 | 27.0 |
| 65+ | 28% | 62.1 | 25.9 |
| RaceWhite | 56% | 46.7 | 40.7 |
| Black | 29% | 82.7 | 6.3 |
| Latino | 6% | 69.4 | 19.1 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 73.1 | 13.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 26% | 40.2 | 47.3 |
| White women | 30% | 52.3 | 35.0 |
| Black men | 13% | 81.6 | 7.2 |
| Black women | 16% | 83.6 | 5.6 |
| Latino men | 3% | 67.6 | 21.0 |
| Latino women | 3% | 71.4 | 17.2 |
| All other races | 9% | 73.1 | 13.2 |