How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
California Governor
Xavier Becerra vs Steve Hilton
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2558
Raised $29.7M against $21.4M for Steve Hilton.
- Cash weight 2075
$6.2M in the bank against $2.1M for Steve Hilton.
- National tide weight 1573
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.72 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Xavier Becerra.
- Money weight 2542
Raised $21.4M against $29.7M for Xavier Becerra.
- Cash weight 2025
$2.1M in the bank against $6.2M for Xavier Becerra.
- National tide weight 1527
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.72 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.1 points of that tide, a headwind for Steve Hilton.
- Activity weight 1025
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Xavier Becerra leads by 26.0 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,503,820 votes; a one point swing is about 67,485 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +19.4 and D +32.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +23.5. Your best recent poll is Emerson College at D +27.7; your worst is David Wolfson for Hilton (R) at D +9.1. 12 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Los Angeles, a projected net 1,296,529 votes; Alameda, a projected net 363,687 votes; Santa Clara, a projected net 297,266 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Orange, D +5.3, 8.7% of the vote; Riverside, D +10.1, 5.7% of the vote; San Bernardino, D +8.1, 4.6% of the vote; Fresno, R +1.4, 2.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Xavier Becerra runs furthest behind in Placer, Santa Barbara, Ventura. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 56% of voters, 55 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.81 points; Men, 48% of voters, 59 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.41 points; College graduates, 46% of voters, 62 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Xavier Becerra: Immigration voters 34 to 65, White voters 55 to 44, Incomes $125K and up 57 to 42. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.2M cash against $2.1M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Xavier Becerra. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Steve Hilton's strongest asset
Money: Raised $21.4M against $29.7M for Xavier Becerra.
- Close the gap
Steve Hilton trails by 26.0 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,751,910 voters switching sides, or 3,503,820 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +32.7 and D +19.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +23.5. Your best recent poll is David Wolfson for Hilton (R) at D +9.1; your worst is Emerson College at D +27.7. 12 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Kern, a projected net 37,228 votes; Shasta, a projected net 26,715 votes; Placer, a projected net 21,780 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Orange, D +5.3, 8.7% of the vote; Riverside, D +10.1, 5.7% of the vote; San Bernardino, D +8.1, 4.6% of the vote; Fresno, R +1.4, 2.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Steve Hilton runs furthest behind in Riverside, San Francisco, San Bernardino. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 56% of voters, 44 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.81 points; Men, 48% of voters, 40 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.41 points; College graduates, 46% of voters, 37 to 62, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Steve Hilton: Black voters 18 to 81, Corruption voters 24 to 75, Asian and other voters 28 to 71. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.1M cash against $6.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Steve Hilton. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Xavier Becerra's strongest asset
Cash: $6.2M in the bank against $2.1M for Steve Hilton.
The map for Becerra
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | D +41.1 | 23.4% | +1,296,529 |
| Alameda | D +61.2 | 4.4% | +363,687 |
| Santa Clara | D +45.5 | 4.8% | +297,266 |
| San Francisco | D +76.1 | 2.7% | +272,595 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange | D +5.3 | 8.7% | +61,619 |
| Riverside | D +10.1 | 5.7% | +77,671 |
| San Bernardino | D +8.1 | 4.6% | +50,160 |
| Fresno | R +1.4 | 2.1% | -3,974 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Placer | R +10.8 | 1.5% | -21,780 |
| Santa Barbara | D +25.1 | 1.2% | +39,977 |
| Ventura | D +15.2 | 2.4% | +49,723 |
The coalition
Becerra against Hilton among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- College graduates46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- White voters56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Incomes $125K and up11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +26.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +32.7 and D +19.4
- Polling average
- D +23.5
- Partisan lean
- D +22.3
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +25.6 |
| Emerson College | 0 | 1,000 LV | D +27.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | 0 | 800 LV | D +19.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 0 | 799 LV | D +21.5 |
| PPIC | 0 | 1,086 LV | D +23.0 |
| UC Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times | 0 | 4,000 LV | D +26.9 |
| UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico | 1 | 909 LV | D +19.9 |
| David Wolfson for Hilton (R) | 13 | 1,020 RV | D +9.1 |
| Manhattan Institute | 14 | 1,000 LV | D +18.9 |
| Independent Voter Project | 17 | 2,906 LV | D +11.8 |
| Berkeley IGS | 25 | 4,512 LV | D +23.4 |
| SurveyUSA | 25 | 742 LV | D +21.5 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Becerra | Hilton | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $29.7M | $21.4M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $6.2M | $2.1M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
California, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 5,063,243
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +29.6
- Forecast expected
- D +21.2
- Against expectation
- 8.4 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-23Bill Maher host, leans other
Hosted California Republican governor candidate Steve Hilton on Real Time and warned that many Democrats are getting a false positive from the midterms. Source
- 2026-09-09Brian Tyler Cohen podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Xavier Becerra, whom the episode called the future governor of California. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.