2026 forecast
Rhode Island Senate forecast
Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay. The model has Reed ahead by 29.3 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
5 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +36.5 and D +22.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +23.6 | |
| University of New Hampshire | 598 LV | 18d | D +20.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 750 LV | 46d | D +20.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 664 LV | 108d | D +17.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 556 LV | 172d | D +18.2 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Reed | McKay |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 56.8 | 36.9 |
| Women | 55% | 65.4 | 28.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 63.9 | 29.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 59.2 | 34.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 59.5 | 34.2 |
| 65+ | 30% | 64.1 | 29.9 |
| RaceWhite | 81% | 57.9 | 36.0 |
| Black | 5% | 86.1 | 7.1 |
| Latino | 9% | 70.4 | 22.6 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 78.2 | 14.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 51.9 | 42.1 |
| White women | 45% | 62.7 | 31.2 |
| Black men | 2% | 84.3 | 8.7 |
| Black women | 2% | 87.6 | 5.6 |
| Latino men | 5% | 68.2 | 24.7 |
| Latino women | 5% | 72.5 | 20.4 |
| All other races | 6% | 78.2 | 14.1 |