2,809,829 ballots cast in Texas
As of October 23, 2026, 2,809,829 ballots have been cast in Texas: 120,769 by mail and 2,689,060 in person. Texas does not publish the party of its early voters. See the Texas Senate forecast.
Slight signal for Democrats in the Texas Senate race
Where the party lead of the early vote has to be by now for each side to beat the On Point forecast by a lot or to prove the favorite wrong, and how far each side is from it.
| For this result | Early vote needs | It is | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats beat the forecast by 5race lands D +7.5 | D +4.3 | R +8.2 | 12.5 short |
| Republicans beat the forecast by 5race lands R +2.5 | R +21.3 | R +8.2 | 13.2 short |
| Republicans flip the racerace lands Even | R +15.0 | R +8.2 | 6.8 short |
| Matches the best Democratic poll, On Point Pollingrace lands D +5.8 | R +0.1 | R +8.2 | 8.1 short |
| Matches the best Republican poll, InsiderAdvantagerace lands R +0.9 | R +17.2 | R +8.2 | 9.1 short |
If the early vote ends where it is pointing, Paxton needs Election Day voters to break R +13.6 to win, 5.7 points redder than the R +7.9 the forecast expects of them. With the forecast holding, Election Day lands near R +8.2.
Benchmarks assume the rest of the early vote keeps the gap seen so far and Election Day votes as the forecast expects. Party is registration where Texas publishes it and the On Point party model where it does not. Crossover rates are On Point Polling likely voters nationwide; the forecast itself already carries an early vote correction of D +0.26, which is taken out of the baseline here so the same ballots are not counted twice. Polls of the last 30 days leave out Rasmussen, ActiVote and Wedgewood, as the site average does.
Texas does not report the party of its early voters, so the party model above comes from On Point Polling.
Every Texas county
0 counties| County | Ballots | In person | Democrats | Republicans | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading counties | ||||||
Early vote questions
How many people have voted early in Texas?
As of October 23, 2026, 2,809,829 ballots have been cast in Texas: 120,769 mail ballots returned and 2,689,060 cast in person.
Does Texas report early votes by party?
No. Texas does not publish the party registration of early voters, so On Point Polling estimates the party mix from county results and voter demographics on the map above.
When is Election Day in Texas?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days after the latest count. Check the Texas election office for early voting locations, hours and mail ballot deadlines.
Counts come from civicAPI, which collects them from state election offices. Each state reports on its own schedule and publishes different breakdowns, so a state with no party split simply does not publish one. Pace uses each state's published 2022 and 2024 early vote checkpoints.