2026 forecast
Minnesota Governor forecast
Amy Klobuchar vs Lisa Demuth, an open seat. The model has Klobuchar ahead by 12.6 points, winning 98 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
87 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +19.9 and D +5.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +8.2 | |
| co/efficient (R) | 833 LV | 24d | D +5.8 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 654 LV | 25d | D +6.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 1,201 LV | 37d | D +7.8 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 661 LV | 53d | D +14.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Klobuchar | Demuth |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 49.2 | 45.6 |
| Women | 54% | 57.5 | 37.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 57.7 | 37.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 53.8 | 41.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 51.1 | 43.8 |
| 65+ | 29% | 54.6 | 40.3 |
| RaceWhite | 85% | 49.4 | 45.5 |
| Black | 5% | 87.6 | 7.6 |
| Latino | 3% | 68.8 | 26.2 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 76.5 | 17.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 43.9 | 51.0 |
| White women | 47% | 54.0 | 40.9 |
| Black men | 2% | 86.7 | 8.5 |
| Black women | 3% | 88.4 | 6.9 |
| Latino men | 2% | 66.0 | 29.0 |
| Latino women | 2% | 71.6 | 23.5 |
| All other races | 7% | 76.5 | 17.5 |