2026 forecast
Montana Senate forecast
Seth Bodnar vs Kurt Alme, an open seat. The model has Alme ahead by 18.9 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
56 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +12.7 and R +24.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +1.9 | |
| American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | 600 RV | 15d | D +1.1 |
| Aspect Strategic (I) | 715 LV | 24d | D +2.1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 845 RV | 32d | D +7.3 |
| Peak Insights | 600 LV | 45d | D +0.3 |
| Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | 66d | R +0.8 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 517 LV | 74d | R +0.8 |
| GQR (D) | 500 LV | 75d | D +7.5 |
| Bullfinch Group (R) | 793 LV | 85d | D +8.5 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 500 RV | 107d | D +3.3 |
| Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | 107d | R +0.8 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 400 LV | 112d | D +0.1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 500 LV | 120d | D +3.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bodnar | Alme |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 27.2 | 53.8 |
| Women | 52% | 32.7 | 44.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 34.5 | 43.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 30.3 | 48.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 27.8 | 52.5 |
| 65+ | 32% | 30.2 | 48.5 |
| RaceWhite | 89% | 28.1 | 51.6 |
| Latino | 3% | 40.8 | 33.6 |
| Asian and other | 8% | 49.1 | 25.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 24.2 | 57.6 |
| White women | 48% | 31.5 | 46.3 |
| Latino men | 2% | 38.9 | 36.5 |
| Latino women | 1% | 43.0 | 30.4 |
| All other races | 8% | 49.1 | 25.6 |