2026 forecast
Vermont Governor forecast
Amanda Janoo vs Phil Scott. The model has Scott ahead by 9.7 points, winning 94 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
14 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +1.7 and R +17.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +4.6 | |
| State Navigate | 940 LV | 8d | R +3.3 |
| Braun Research | 817 LV | 18d | R +9.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 835 LV | 18d | D +6.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 954 LV | 81d | R +10.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | 887 LV | 108d | R +14.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Janoo | Scott |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 44% | 39.7 | 57.9 |
| Women | 56% | 47.3 | 50.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 44.1 | 53.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 41.2 | 56.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 41.9 | 55.8 |
| 65+ | 32% | 48.0 | 49.7 |
| RaceWhite | 93% | 42.0 | 55.7 |
| Latino | 2% | 64.3 | 33.6 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 71.8 | 25.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 37.2 | 60.5 |
| White women | 53% | 45.7 | 52.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 71.8 | 25.7 |