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South Dakota Governor
Dan Ahlers vs Larry Rhoden
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Early vote weight 1516
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 73,571 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 5.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.05 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Dan Ahlers.
- Early vote weight 1584
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 73,571 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 5.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.05 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Larry Rhoden.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Dan Ahlers trails by 14.8 and wins 4% of simulations. Closing it takes about 28,487 voters switching sides, or 56,973 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +23.9 and R +5.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.0. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +12.7; your worst is Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center at R +19.2. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Minnehaha, a projected net 4,032 votes; Oglala Lakota, a projected net 2,628 votes; Todd, a projected net 1,506 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +4.8, 21.7% of the vote; Brown, R +8.7, 4.0% of the vote; Brookings, R +5.2, 3.6% of the vote; Yankton, R +11.8, 2.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Dan Ahlers runs furthest behind in Hughes, Lawrence, Butte. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 91% of voters, 40 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.57 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 41 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.71 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 41 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Dan Ahlers: Immigration voters 15 to 83, Incomes $125K and up 35 to 64, Voters who can afford daily costs 37 to 61. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 73,571 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 5.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.3 points away from Dan Ahlers. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Larry Rhoden's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 73,571 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party.
- Protect the lead
Larry Rhoden leads by 14.8 in the forecast and wins 96% of simulations. The cushion is about 56,973 votes; a one point swing is about 1,922 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.2 and R +23.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.0. Your best recent poll is Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center at R +19.2; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +12.7. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Pennington, a projected net 7,110 votes; Lincoln, a projected net 4,905 votes; Meade, a projected net 4,801 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +4.8, 21.7% of the vote; Brown, R +8.7, 4.0% of the vote; Brookings, R +5.2, 3.6% of the vote; Yankton, R +11.8, 2.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Larry Rhoden runs furthest behind in Turner, Union, Beadle. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 91% of voters, 58 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.57 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 57 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.71 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 57 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Larry Rhoden: Independents 24 to 71, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 32 to 65, Asian and other voters 35 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 73,571 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 5.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.3 points toward Larry Rhoden. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Dan Ahlers's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Ahlers
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnehaha | D +4.8 | 21.7% | +4,032 |
| Oglala Lakota | D +80.7 | 0.8% | +2,628 |
| Todd | D +67.9 | 0.6% | +1,506 |
| Clay | D +25.1 | 1.5% | +1,415 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnehaha | D +4.8 | 21.7% | +4,032 |
| Brown | R +8.7 | 4% | -1,343 |
| Brookings | R +5.2 | 3.6% | -725 |
| Yankton | R +11.8 | 2.6% | -1,157 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hughes | R +26.2 | 2.1% | -2,076 |
| Lawrence | R +24.0 | 3.5% | -3,256 |
| Butte | R +50.0 | 1.2% | -2,273 |
The coalition
Ahlers against Rhoden among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters91% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202474% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Small counties57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Incomes $125K and up11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Voters who can afford daily costs43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +14.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +5.2 and R +23.9
- Polling average
- R +18.0
- Partisan lean
- R +28.4
- Early vote effect
- R +1.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 0 | 803 LV | R +17.2 |
| Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center | 1 | 500 LV | R +19.2 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | 7 | 400 LV | R +12.7 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Ahlers | Rhoden | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | $572K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | n/a | n/a |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
South Dakota, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 73,571
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +23.8
- Forecast expected
- R +18.5
- Against expectation
- 5.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.