2026 forecast · South Dakota Governor

Larry Rhoden is very likely to win South Dakota's governorship.

Dan Ahlers vs Larry Rhoden. The model has Rhoden ahead by 11.8 points, winning 93 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Likely RModel R +11.8Polls R +16.9Updated October 22, 2026

Dan Ahlers

Democrat

43.3%

166,445 projected votes

Larry Rhoden

Republican

55.1%

211,993 projected votes

93%Rhoden

7%Ahlers

Rhoden very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Rhoden wins about 93 of 100

RatingLikely R93% chance for Rhoden

Model marginR +11.8Polls R +16.9

80 percent rangeR +2.2 to R +20.92,000 simulations

Projected votes384,435Rhoden 55.1%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

South Dakota Governor by county

D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Ahlers +14,893 net votes from 8 countiesStatewide R +11.6, a 44,462 vote marginRhoden +59,355 net votes from 58 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

384,435 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Larry Rhoden R	211,993	55.1%
Dan Ahlers D	166,445	43.3%
Other O	5,997	1.6%
Total	384,435	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between R +2.2 and R +20.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The South Dakota governor polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)Oct 8 · 400 LV · NR70%Rhoden +10.0

Lake Research Partners (D)Aug 30 · 500 LV · NR23%Rhoden +7.0

Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman CenterOct 14 · 500 LV · D-7.7%Rhoden +20.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	Weighted average		R +16.9
Emerson College	803 LV	0d	R +18.038 to 56
Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center	500 LV	1d	R +20.036 to 56
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)	400 LV	7d	R +10.038 to 48
Lake Research Partners (D)	500 LV	46d	R +7.044 to 51

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin

Rhoden +11.8

Chance of winning

Dan Ahlers7%

Larry Rhoden93%

Simulated vote

Dan Ahlers43.3%

Larry Rhoden55.1%

Other1.6%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanR +29.9

FundamentalsR +3.1

With pollsR +11.3

Early vote turnoutR +0.6

With early voteR +11.8

Read from 31,562 ballots cast so far in South Dakota, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

22 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Dan Ahlers2

Joe BidenFormer Presidentsource
Rick KnobeFormer Sioux Falls mayorsource

Larry Rhoden20

Taylor RehfeldtSouth Dakota state representative, former assistant majority leadersource
Brian MuellerPennington County sheriffsource
Steve SwensonLincoln County sheriffsource
Alan DaleCorson County sheriffsource
Jonathan WaldnerEdmunds County sheriffsource
Kelly SerrPerkins County sheriffsource
Curt HamburgerPotter County sheriffsource
Josh BollWalworth County sheriffsource

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Ahlers	Rhoden
GenderMen	48%	40.9	57.5
Women	52%	49.1	49.3
Age18 to 29	12%	51.3	47.1
30 to 44	21%	45.9	52.5
45 to 64	33%	42.6	55.8
65+	34%	45.1	53.4
RaceWhite	89%	41.6	56.8
Black	2%	87.9	10.6
Latino	2%	61.5	36.9
Asian and other	8%	72.8	25.3
Race and genderWhite men	42%	36.3	62.2
White women	47%	46.4	52.0
Latino men	1%	59.5	38.8
Latino women	1%	63.6	34.9
All other races	8%	72.8	25.3

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

66 counties

County	Ahlers	Rhoden	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	166,984	211,446	6,005	384,435	R +11.6
Minnehaha County	45,230	36,802	1,249	83,281	D +9.6
Pennington County	22,044	27,304	956	50,304	R +10.8
Lincoln County	14,103	16,950	378	31,431	R +9.5
Brown County	7,201	8,052	201	15,454	R +5.7
Brookings County	6,569	7,172	209	13,950	R +4.6
Lawrence County	5,224	8,054	271	13,549	R +21.2
Meade County	3,957	8,922	303	13,182	R +37.9
Codington County	4,414	7,462	181	12,057	R +25.6
Yankton County	4,451	5,218	177	9,846	R +8.1
Davison County	3,036	4,945	105	8,086	R +24.0
Hughes County	3,044	4,745	118	7,907	R +22.1
Union County	3,072	4,376	106	7,554	R +17.6
Beadle County	2,546	3,818	116	6,480	R +19.9
Clay County	3,550	1,998	90	5,638	D +27.3
Lake County	2,216	3,035	69	5,320	R +15.8
Custer County	1,902	3,321	91	5,314	R +26.7
Butte County	1,166	3,289	95	4,550	R +46.7
Turner County	1,365	2,625	69	4,059	R +31.0
Fall River County	1,352	2,406	81	3,839	R +27.4
Roberts County	1,860	1,899	46	3,805	R +0.8
Hutchinson County	831	2,498	37	3,366	R +49.5
Charles Mix County	1,192	2,121	37	3,350	R +27.9
Grant County	1,185	2,104	40	3,329	R +27.6
Oglala Lakota County	2,899	290	68	3,257	D +79.6
Hamlin County	762	2,046	40	2,848	R +45.4
Spink County	1,053	1,745	40	2,838	R +24.3
Moody County	1,220	1,564	42	2,826	R +12.7
Bon Homme County	928	1,822	36	2,786	R +31.8
McCook County	897	1,734	40	2,671	R +31.4
Day County	1,118	1,473	32	2,623	R +13.4
Kingsbury County	915	1,629	36	2,580	R +28.0
Tripp County	537	1,875	25	2,437	R +54.7
Walworth County	625	1,592	29	2,246	R +42.8
Brule County	814	1,381	32	2,227	R +25.5
Todd County	1,853	320	47	2,220	D +68.9
Gregory County	525	1,531	25	2,081	R +48.1
Deuel County	666	1,370	33	2,069	R +34.3
Marshall County	890	1,030	18	1,938	R +6.7
Edmunds County	514	1,287	20	1,821	R +42.2
Hanson County	497	1,186	18	1,701	R +40.6
Dewey County	1,054	602	26	1,682	D +26.3
Clark County	467	1,180	22	1,669	R +42.7
Hand County	407	1,136	19	1,562	R +46.4
Stanley County	506	1,013	21	1,540	R +33.2
Douglas County	244	1,256	12	1,512	R +66.4
Perkins County	273	1,143	31	1,447	R +59.1
Lyman County	519	831	21	1,371	R +22.3
Aurora County	383	832	23	1,238	R +35.8
Potter County	260	903	12	1,175	R +54.2
McPherson County	241	910	13	1,164	R +57.2
Corson County	543	496	19	1,058	D +4.5
Sanborn County	326	719	13	1,058	R +36.4
Miner County	363	665	14	1,042	R +29.2
Bennett County	472	547	20	1,039	R +6.8
Haakon County	127	880	9	1,016	R +73.5
Faulk County	234	767	11	1,012	R +52.3
Jackson County	371	605	16	992	R +23.7
Jerauld County	304	571	12	887	R +29.9
Sully County	220	575	12	807	R +43.7
Ziebach County	405	321	17	743	D +11.0
Campbell County	146	577	8	731	R +57.5
Mellette County	290	374	16	680	R +12.9
Harding County	62	601	10	673	R +80.0
Hyde County	150	449	5	604	R +48.1
Jones County	88	384	7	479	R +61.0
Buffalo County	306	118	10	434	D +42.5

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.