How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
South Carolina Governor
Jermaine Johnson vs Alan Wilson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2526
Raised $867K against $2.5M for Alan Wilson.
- Cash weight 207
$136K in the bank against $1.7M for Alan Wilson.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jermaine Johnson.
- Activity weight 1025
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $136K against $1.7M.
- Money weight 2574
Raised $2.5M against $867K for Jermaine Johnson.
- Cash weight 2093
$1.7M in the bank against $136K for Jermaine Johnson.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Alan Wilson.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jermaine Johnson trails by 8.9 and wins 10% of simulations. Closing it takes about 91,156 voters switching sides, or 182,311 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +17.4 and R +0.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.7. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena at R +7.7; your worst is Trafalgar Group (R) at R +14.9. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Richland, a projected net 63,633 votes; Charleston, a projected net 27,052 votes; Orangeburg, a projected net 10,996 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: York, R +9.2, 5.7% of the vote; Berkeley, R +5.7, 4.3% of the vote; Beaufort, R +9.1, 4.1% of the vote; Dorchester, R +2.3, 3.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jermaine Johnson runs furthest behind in Greenville, Oconee, Lancaster. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 44 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 46 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 47 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jermaine Johnson: Immigration voters 14 to 83, White voters 35 to 62, Other issue voters 40 to 57. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$136K cash against $1.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Jermaine Johnson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Alan Wilson's strongest asset
Cash: $1.7M in the bank against $136K for Jermaine Johnson.
- Protect the lead
Alan Wilson leads by 8.9 in the forecast and wins 90% of simulations. The cushion is about 182,311 votes; a one point swing is about 10,196 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +0.1 and R +17.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.7. Your best recent poll is Trafalgar Group (R) at R +14.9; your worst is New York Times/Siena at R +7.7. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Horry, a projected net 44,751 votes; Greenville, a projected net 41,719 votes; Spartanburg, a projected net 33,545 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: York, R +9.2, 5.7% of the vote; Berkeley, R +5.7, 4.3% of the vote; Beaufort, R +9.1, 4.1% of the vote; Dorchester, R +2.3, 3.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Alan Wilson runs furthest behind in Sumter, Georgetown, Dorchester. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 52 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 51 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 50 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Alan Wilson: Black voters 20 to 78, Independents 27 to 67, Corruption voters 37 to 60. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $136K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Alan Wilson. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jermaine Johnson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Johnson
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richland | D +40.2 | 7.8% | +63,633 |
| Charleston | D +15.1 | 8.8% | +27,052 |
| Orangeburg | D +35.4 | 1.5% | +10,996 |
| Sumter | D +17.9 | 1.8% | +6,640 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | R +9.2 | 5.7% | -10,602 |
| Berkeley | R +5.7 | 4.3% | -5,023 |
| Beaufort | R +9.1 | 4.1% | -7,669 |
| Dorchester | R +2.3 | 3% | -1,395 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville | R +19.6 | 10.4% | -41,719 |
| Oconee | R +46.6 | 1.6% | -15,566 |
| Lancaster | R +19.4 | 2% | -8,074 |
The coalition
Johnson against Wilson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters without a degree62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Women52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- White voters75% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Other issue voters33% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +8.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +0.1 and R +17.4
- Polling average
- R +10.7
- Partisan lean
- R +16.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 294 LV | R +8.2 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 0 | 1,095 LV | R +14.9 |
| National Public Affairs | 0 | 604 LV | R +9.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 0 | 707 LV | R +7.7 |
| Targoz Market Research for the South Carolina Policy Council | 0 | 895 LV | R +7.7 |
| The Citadel Poll | 0 | 890 LV | R +11.0 |
| FITSNews/Rick Quinn | 12 | 638 RV | R +10.3 |
| Resonance Media | 12 | 638 RV | R +10.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Johnson | Wilson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $867K | $2.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $136K | $1.7M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
South Carolina, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 876,288
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +21.4
- Forecast expected
- R +20.8
- Against expectation
- 0.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-19Jermaine Johnson event in Columbia
Cast his ballot in Columbia on the first day of early voting before heading to the Grand Strand. Source
- 2026-10-10JB Pritzker tour stop in Charleston, Manning, Columbia
Statewide swing that ended with a keynote at the state NAACP convention. Source
- 2026-10-06Jermaine Johnson debate in Columbia
Televised governor debate with Alan Wilson scheduled at the WIS studios. Source
- 2026-10-06Alan Wilson debate in Columbia
Televised governor debate with Jermaine Johnson scheduled at the WIS studios. Source