How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Nebraska Governor
Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2523
Raised $3.8M against $12.7M for Jim Pillen.
- Cash weight 2010
$860K in the bank against $7.5M for Jim Pillen.
- Early vote weight 1548
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 215,424 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 44% for the other party. That is 4.2 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1584
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.17 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.4 points of that tide, a tailwind for Lynne Walz.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $860K against $7.5M.
- Money weight 2577
Raised $12.7M against $3.8M for Lynne Walz.
- Cash weight 2090
$7.5M in the bank against $860K for Lynne Walz.
- Early vote weight 1552
Registered Republicans cast 44% of the 215,424 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.2 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1516
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.17 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.4 points of that tide, a headwind for Jim Pillen.
- Activity weight 1050
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Lynne Walz trails by 4.7 and wins 18% of simulations. Closing it takes about 18,371 voters switching sides, or 36,742 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.3 and D +1.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +5.0. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) at D +0.3; your worst is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at R +7.3. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Douglas, a projected net 60,357 votes; Lancaster, a projected net 29,978 votes; Sarpy, a projected net 5,161 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sarpy, D +6.7, 10.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Lynne Walz runs furthest behind in Platte, Madison, Washington. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 42 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.49 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 44 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.48 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 41 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Lynne Walz: Immigration voters 16 to 79, Small counties 27 to 66, Incomes $125K and up 39 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$860K cash against $7.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 215,424 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 44% for the other party. That is 4.2 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Lynne Walz. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jim Pillen's strongest asset
Cash: $7.5M in the bank against $860K for Lynne Walz.
- Protect the lead
Jim Pillen leads by 4.7 in the forecast and wins 82% of simulations. The cushion is about 36,742 votes; a one point swing is about 3,876 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +1.9 and R +11.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +5.0. Your best recent poll is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at R +7.3; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) at D +0.3. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Platte, a projected net 7,187 votes; Madison, a projected net 6,353 votes; Buffalo, a projected net 4,951 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sarpy, D +6.7, 10.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jim Pillen runs furthest behind in Lincoln, Buffalo, Cass. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 52 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.49 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 50 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.48 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 53 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jim Pillen: Independents 21 to 67, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 29 to 63, Corruption voters 31 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$7.5M cash against $860K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 44% of the 215,424 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.2 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Jim Pillen. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Lynne Walz's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Walz
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas | D +26.9 | 28.9% | +60,357 |
| Lancaster | D +22.7 | 17% | +29,978 |
| Sarpy | D +6.7 | 10% | +5,161 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpy | D +6.7 | 10% | +5,161 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platte | R +55.9 | 1.7% | -7,187 |
| Madison | R +48.2 | 1.7% | -6,353 |
| Washington | R +29.2 | 1.3% | -2,910 |
The coalition
Walz against Pillen among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters90% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.5
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202470% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties44% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.2
- Incomes $125K and up11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +4.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +1.9 and R +11.3
- Polling average
- R +5.0
- Partisan lean
- R +19.3
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | 0 | 598 LV | R +5.1 |
| Global Strategy Group for Walz (D) | 0 | 800 LV | R +3.4 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) | 0 | 500 LV | D +0.3 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 407 LV | R +7.3 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 1,555 LV | R +2.8 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 1 | 571 RV | R +2.2 |
| National Public Affairs | 10 | 800 LV | R +3.1 |
| YouGov | 12 | 1,809 LV | R +1.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 15 | 1,113 LV | R +1.5 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 31 | 600 RV | R +2.8 |
| SurveyUSA | 32 | 503 LV | R +8.5 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 43 | 559 RV | R +1.9 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Walz | Pillen | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.8M | $12.7M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $860K | $7.5M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Nebraska, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 215,424
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +5.4
- Forecast expected
- R +9.6
- Against expectation
- 4.2 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Jim Pillen's Nebraska governor race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22JD Vance rally in North Platte
Fix: the announced rally took place at the D&N Center, about 1,200 people. Vance urged support for Ricketts and Pillen and attacked Dan Osborn. Date and city unchanged. Source
- 2026-10-05Donald Trump rally in Grand Island
Rally at Pinnacle Bank Expo Center as the Ricketts race tightened against Dan Osborn. Source
- 2026-10-05Jim Pillen rally in Grand Island
Joined President Trump on stage at his midterm rally at the Pinnacle Bank Expo Center on the Nebraska State Fairgrounds. Source