Byron Donalds

Subject: Byron Donalds, Republican nominee for Governor of Florida, 2026 Compiled: October 23, 2026 for the On Point Politics watchdog database, onpointpolitics.us Data cutoff: October 22, 2026. Next scheduled data drop: Florida Division of Elections filings due October 30, 2026 Status conventions: Every figure carries a date or as-of period. Rows marked provisional or contested are not yet confirmed by primary filings. The Yass to Kohelet link is contested and must not be stated as fact; see Part 1 section on Kohelet and Part 2 section on Claws Foundation.

How this file is organized

• Part 1: first hop. Who funds Donalds, his committees, his own disclosures, Erika Donalds' Optima entities, and the Yass and Kohelet question.
• Part 2: second hop. What each funding bloc wants, what the governor controls, the decision calendar through 2028, and what changes for Floridians.
• Part 3: merged Ledger import table, 423 rows, both hops, with a Hop column.
• Part 4: raw research notes behind both reports, with inline source URLs, for verification and for extending the database.

Entity index for the database

Core subject: Byron Donalds. Spouse: Erika Donalds. Committees: Friends of Byron Donalds PAC, FL DOE 89043; Byron Donalds for Governor; Byron Donalds for Congress, FEC C00733329; Proven Conservatives PAC, FEC C00755728 and C00894147; Byron Donalds Victory Fund, FEC C00760108. Treasurer for all: Bradley T. Crate, Red Curve Solutions, Beverly MA. Chair: Ryan Smith. Campaign manager: Chris Hudson.

Interest blocs used as tags: Billionaire megadonor; School choice and family; Gambling; Detention vendors; Utilities and energy; Utilities and data centers; Developers and construction; Insurance and tort; Crypto and finance; AI industry; Sugar and agriculture; Pro-Israel; Trump world; Enforcement and disclosure; Legislative leadership; Opponent context; Rival context.

Shared-lever office: Attorney General James Uthmeier, who shares donors with Donalds across gambling, detention and prediction markets.

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Byron Donalds has raised nearly $149 million for governor as of October 20, 2026, and roughly nine tenths of it runs through one unlimited state committee, Friends of Byron Donalds PAC, whose largest checks come from Ken Griffin at $10 million, Jeff Yass at about $11 million counting his pass-through to Club for Growth Action Florida, the Seminole Tribe at $5.5 million, the GEO Group at $2.5 million to $3.5 million, and Richard Uihlein at $2 million, per the [Tampa Bay Times](kdhnews.com) and [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com). Seventeen billionaires gave him $23.3 million, about two thirds of his money came from corporations, political committees and donors giving $10,000 or more, and 30 percent came from outside Florida. The donors cluster into eleven identifiable blocs, and in nearly every one the record contains a policy ask Donalds has already answered: he opposes a utility return cap after NextEra and Duke gave $1.5 million, he pledges to keep the 2023 tort reforms that insurers and Americans for Prosperity want, he sponsored the detention bills GEO lobbied for before GEO wrote seven-figure checks, and he and his wife Erika run a household whose reported wealth is almost entirely her for-profit charter management firms, which would sit under the Department of Education he would oversee. The one claim the user should not make is that Jeff Yass funded Israel's Kohelet Policy Forum: Haaretz reported it in 2021, but the New York Times, the Washington Post and Calcalist all reported that Yass never donated and that Arthur Dantchik was the dominant funder who withdrew in August 2023. The personal finance file is a pattern of under-disclosure corrected only after press reports: a Campaign Legal Center complaint over 108 unreported trades, four years of omitted liabilities amended in June 2026, a Federal Election Commission deadlock on a 2020 soft money chain, a rebuffed FEC demand to refund roughly $400,000, and a bitcoin purchase on the same day he signed a letter asking the IRS to loosen crypto tax rules. The next data drop is the October 30, 2026 Florida disclosure deadline, which will settle the late September and October gifts that are currently reported only by secondary outlets.

Two state vehicles and a treasurer who also serves Trump

Donalds runs a capped candidate account, Byron Donalds for Governor, and the unlimited affiliated committee Friends of Byron Donalds PAC, Florida Division of Elections account 89043, chaired by campaign chief strategist Ryan Smith with treasurer Bradley T. Crate of Red Curve Solutions in Beverly, Massachusetts, per the [Division of Elections](dos.elections.myflorida.com). Crate is also treasurer of every federal Donalds committee: Byron Donalds for Congress, FEC ID C00733329; the leadership PAC Proven Conservatives PAC, C00755728; a second leadership PAC, Proven Conservatives PAC Federal, registered December 19, 2024; and the Byron Donalds Victory Fund joint fundraising committee whose participants include the NRCC and the Republican Party of Florida, per [FEC committee records](fec.gov). Red Curve is the compliance shop used by Trump's campaign and MAGA Inc., so the treasurer is the clearest documented vendor link to Trump world.

The scale of the state committee dwarfs anything in his federal history. His House committee raised $3.25 million in 2020, $5.66 million in 2022 and $6.60 million in 2024, per [FEC candidate pages](fec.gov). The state PAC alone had taken in nearly $130.4 million through the October 3 to 9, 2026 reporting week, per the [Bradenton Journal](thebradentonjournal.substack.com), and combined totals reached $134.4 million raised and $91.7 million spent by September 25, per [CBS Miami](cbsnews.com). Through May 31, 2026 the split was $71.8 million to the PAC against $9.2 million to the candidate account across 35,292 donors, per [Floridian Press](floridianpress.com). Because Florida allows unlimited gifts to a candidate's affiliated committee, most of what would be outside super PAC money in a federal race flows directly into Friends of Byron Donalds, which means federal-style independent expenditure reporting badly understates the picture. David Jolly, by comparison, had raised under $22 million by October 20, with Donald Sussman at $600,000 and Charles Wall at $525,000 as his largest donors, per [WUSF](wusf.org).

The rest of this report is organized as a money map: one section per interest bloc, each naming the donors, the amounts and dates the notes could document, what that bloc wants from Tallahassee, and what Donalds has done or pledged that aligns. Within each section, documented facts are separated from inference.

Billionaire megadonors: Griffin, Yass, Uihlein, Peterffy, Wynn, DeVos

Documented. Ken Griffin of Citadel gave $10 million to the Donalds committee, reported July 24, 2026 and the largest single contribution in the race; Griffin also gave $2.5 million to Senator Ashley Moody, per the [Tampa Bay Times](tampabay.com). Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International Group gave $5 million by March 31, 2025, per [News4Jax](news4jax.com), reaching $7.5 million by mid 2026, per [Miami New Times](miaminewtimes.com), plus $3.5 million to Club for Growth Action Florida, which in turn gave Friends of Byron Donalds $3.75 million, for a total WUSF puts at $11 million, per [WUSF](wusf.org). Richard Uihlein of Uline gave $1 million by March 31, 2025 and a second $1 million on June 6, 2025, per [Florida Politics](floridapolitics.com). Thomas Peterffy of Interactive Brokers gave $1.2 million, Steve Wynn gave $1 million in the first quarter of 2026, and the DeVos family gave about $1 million combined, per [Miami New Times](miaminewtimes.com), the [Highlands News-Sun](midfloridanewspapers.com) and the [Tampa Bay Times](kdhnews.com). Eric Schmidt, the former Google chief executive, gave $500,000 in the October 3 to 9 week, per the [Bradenton Journal](thebradentonjournal.substack.com). Early 2025 donors also included Clive Fields at $500,000 and Deborah Magowan at $150,000, per [NBC News](nbcnews.com).

Yass's relationship with Donalds predates the governor race but ran through intermediaries. Club for Growth Action, funded in the 2020 cycle by Uihlein at $26.5 million and Yass at $1.7 million, per [FactCheck.org](factcheck.org), spent about $2.5 million in the 2020 FL-19 primary that Donalds won by 777 votes, per [Club for Growth](clubforgrowth.org) and [ProPublica](projects.propublica.org). Protect Freedom PAC, roughly 80 to 95 percent funded by Yass per the [Kentucky Lantern](kentuckylantern.com), was the only outside group active for Donalds in all three House cycles, at about $80,000 in 2020, $30,000 in 2022 and $10,000 in 2024, per ProPublica independent expenditure pages. No direct Yass check to any federal Donalds committee was found in any source, and the federal limit would cap it at $3,300 per election. Club for Growth PAC endorsed Donalds for governor on March 11, 2025, citing his 100 percent lifetime rating, per [Club for Growth](clubforgrowth.org). Yass gave $16 million to MAGA Inc. in the first half of 2025 and is reported at $110 million for the 2026 GOP cycle, per [Spectrum News](spectrumlocalnews.com).

What this bloc wants. Yass has said school choice is his main political motivation and a Susquehanna spokesperson called Donalds "a school choice warrior," per [Miami New Times](miaminewtimes.com). Club for Growth's agenda is tax cuts, "education freedom" and limited government. Griffin's firm helped push an expansion of the charter co-location program Donalds co-sponsored, per [Florida Trib](flaglerlive.com). Uihlein, Yass and Griffin were all DeSantis donors who migrated to Donalds before DeSantis endorsed him on September 1, 2026, per [News4Jax](gmg-wjxt-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com) and the [Tampa Bay Times](aol.com).

What Donalds has done. He supports Amendment 3 and full elimination of homestead property taxes through the 2027 Tax and Budget Reform Commission, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). His education plan expands vouchers with a heavy private sector role. A counterexample matters here: Donalds voted Yea on the March 13, 2024 TikTok divestiture bill, Roll Call 86, against the interest of Yass's ByteDance stake, per the [House Clerk](clerk.house.gov), and Yass's first $5 million arrived after that vote. Any claim that Yass money bought a TikTok position is contradicted by the record.

Inference. The split of Yass's $7.5 million is most likely $5 million in March 2025 and $2.5 million in the first quarter of 2026, and Florida Trib reports the latest $2.5 million came three days after a March 2026 Doral education event where Erika Donalds spoke, per [Florida Trib](floridatrib.org). The exact dates are not confirmed from primary records.

The Kohelet question: what can be said accurately

The user should treat this point as a landmine and state it precisely. Kohelet Policy Forum, founded in January 2012 by Moshe Koppel, produced the policy papers behind Israel's 2023 judicial overhaul and reportedly wrote the legislation submitted by Yariv Levin and Simcha Rothman, per [PBS and AP](pbs.org) and [Wikipedia](en.wikipedia.org). In March 2021 Haaretz reported that both Jeff Yass and his Susquehanna co-founder Arthur Dantchik were behind a large portion of Kohelet's donations through opaque American vehicles, and The Intercept repeated that framing in February 2023 without amounts, per [The Intercept](theintercept.com). That is the alleged version.

The better-sourced version is different. Calcalist reported on August 4, 2023, citing sources close to Dantchik, that Yass "never donated" to Kohelet, and JTA wrote that this "confirms New York Times and Washington Post reporting and contradicts the 2021 Haaretz investigation," per [Calcalist](calcalistech.com) and [JTA](jta.org). The Washington Post's March 2023 source said Dantchik was not the sole funder but that Yass never gave, per [InfluenceWatch](influencewatch.org). Dantchik's giving is confirmed by his own statement that day: "I stopped donating to think tanks in Israel, including the Kohelet Policy Forum." A Shomrim investigation traced about $12 million in 2021 from Dantchik's Claws Foundation through Silver Valley Research Foundation to the Central Fund of Israel, which was Kohelet's sole listed donor that year, per [Shomrim](shomrim.news). Calcalist's reporting put Dantchik at roughly 93 percent of Kohelet's budget, per [Wikipedia](en.wikipedia.org). After the withdrawal, Kohelet cut about half its staff in April 2024 and its donations fell from 30 million shekels in 2022 to 13.6 million in 2024, per [Israel Hayom](israelhayom.com) and [Shomrim](shomrim.news).

The defensible public formulation is: Donalds' largest donor, Jeff Yass, was named by Haaretz in 2021 as a Kohelet funder alongside his business partner Arthur Dantchik; later reporting by the New York Times, Washington Post and Calcalist found Yass never donated, while Dantchik, who was the dominant funder, publicly stopped giving in August 2023. No filing shows a Yass or Susquehanna Foundation grant to American Friends of Kohelet, the Central Fund of Israel or Silver Valley. Yass does have documented indirect ties to pro-Israel giving: the Guardian found the Claws Foundation, where he served as a director, gave $16 million to pro-Israel and anti-Muslim groups, per the [Daily Beast summary](blogs.thedailybeast.com). That is a different claim from funding Kohelet and should not be blended with it.

School choice and the Donalds family businesses

Documented. The school choice bloc is the one where donor interest, candidate policy and household income converge. Yass's $7.5 million and Griffin's $10 million both come from avowed school choice backers, Erika Donalds met the Yasses after OptimaEd was a 2023 Yass Prize semifinalist, and Donalds co-sponsored the 2017 Schools of Hope law and the charter co-location law and chaired the Florida House PreK-12 Quality Subcommittee, per [Miami New Times](miaminewtimes.com) and the [Miami Herald](aol.com). AFP Action, which endorsed him March 4, 2026, credits him with the legislation that created Florida's Hope Scholarship, per [AFP Action](afpaction.com). Turning Point Action endorsed him January 13, 2026 citing school choice and parental rights. Charles "Chip" Cordes, co-founder of Summit Construction, the firm that built the Optima schools, gave $8,400 to Donalds' House campaign in 2020, matched by his wife, plus $2,000 in 2021, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org).

What this bloc wants. Florida's universal voucher program costs about $4.5 billion a year for more than 500,000 students at roughly $8,000 each, and the Florida Education Association sued over it in May 2026, per [Florida Trib](floridatrib.org). The ask is to protect and expand that program and to open it further to private operators and ed-tech vendors.

What Donalds has pledged. His plan puts parents "at the head of the table," replaces A to F school grades and annual testing with individualized learning plans, and treats parents as consumers and schools as competitors with a heavy AI and ed-tech role. Erika Donalds said in October 2026 that vouchers should be funded from the same pot as public and charter schools, per [WUSF](wusf.org), and said in March 2026 that "profit is not going to be a bad word when it comes to the education industry." Donalds' response is that "no donor has asked me to pursue school choice as governor because they don't have to." The Optima money flows that make this a conflict question are laid out in their own section below.

Inference. This is the bloc where the governor's office has the most direct levers: the Department of Education, the State Board of Education and the voucher administration all sit under the executive. No source documents a specific Donalds vote that benefited Optima, and Florida Bulldog says the same, but the structural overlap between the household's income and the office's authority is unlike any other bloc here.

Gambling and prediction markets: more than $6 million ahead of a compact fight

Documented. The Seminole Tribe of Florida gave $1 million in August 2025, $1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, $3 million cumulative by July 2026, another $1 million in August 2026, and $5.5 million through September 18, 2026, per [Florida Politics](floridapolitics.com), [News4Jax](news4jax.com) and [Bonus.com](bonus.com). FanDuel gave most of $581,000, DK Crown Holdings of DraftKings most of $525,000, the Sports Betting Alliance $250,000, Caesars $245,000, Robinhood $200,000, PrizePicks $100,000, the Poarch Band of Creek Indians $100,000 and Kalshi $75,000 through July 2026, per [Gambling Insider](gamblinginsider.com) and [CardPlayer](cardplayer.com). Steve Wynn gave $1 million. Gambling Insider totals the bloc at more than $6 million, and the Tampa Bay Times puts gaming at roughly 10 percent of his large-dollar money. Yass himself is described as a Kalshi investor.

What this bloc wants. The 2021 compact's exclusivity delivers about $1 billion a year to the state. Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions operate under CFTC oversight outside the compact, DeSantis said in February 2026 that a prediction market could conflict with the compact, and the Tribe wants online casino gaming, per [WOKV](wokv.com). The Tribe and the sportsbooks are on opposite sides of that fight and both are funding him.

What Donalds has done. He has taken no public position on prediction markets or the compact. Kalshi, a donor, ran a market showing him above 95 percent to win the primary, which he promoted on social media, per [Miami New Times](miaminewtimes.com).

Inference. Both sides buying access before a 2027 compact fight is the most plausible reading. The Tribe's August 2025 $1 million was described by Florida Politics as possibly hedging against a Casey DeSantis or Collins run, which suggests the Tribe is paying for a seat regardless of nominee rather than for a specific promise.

Detention and immigration vendors owed $417 million

Documented. The GEO Group, the Boca Raton detention contractor, gave $500,000 by January 2026, $1.5 million across two gifts by July 2026, $2.5 million by September 30, 2026, and a further $1 million in the October 3 to 9 week, per [News4Jax](news4jax.com), [WUSF](wusf.org) and the [Bradenton Journal](thebradentonjournal.substack.com). GEO's PAC was already a $5,000 House donor in 2020 and gave $2,500 twice to the Victory Fund, per [ProPublica](projects.propublica.org). CDR entities and Carlos Duart gave more than $620,000, Access Restoration Services, parent of IRG, more than $100,000, Lemoine $59,000 and Critical Response Strategies $10,000, per [WUSF](wusf.org). None gave to Jolly.

What this bloc wants. The Florida Division of Emergency Management owed more than $417 million on 592 unpaid Operation Vigil Sentry invoices: GEO's joint venture nearly $40 million, IRG more than $68 million, CDR more than $40 million, Lemoine $27.3 million and Critical Response more than $35 million, per WUSF. Separately, GEO spent $340,000 and $350,000 in the second half of 2024 lobbying for two Donalds bills, the Secure the Border Act he co-sponsored and the Reshape Alternatives to Detention Act he sponsored, and nearly $2 million lobbying overall that year.

What Donalds has pledged. He calls Alligator Alcatraz "mission accomplished," will pursue full federal reimbursement, and will remove local officials who create sanctuaries, suspend state attorneys, require E-Verify for all businesses and withhold grants under a "Zero Tolerance, Zero Dollars" plan, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com) and [WFLX](wflx.com).

Inference. WUSF is explicit that its reporting "does not establish whether donations were linked to contract decisions or payments." The sequence that stands out is GEO lobbying on his own bills in 2024, then giving seven figures in 2025 and 2026 while owed money by the state he seeks to run. That is the clearest "act, then money" sequence in the file. The next governor signs off on paying those invoices.

Utilities, energy and data centers: $1.79 million career and a rejected rate cap

Documented. NextEra Energy, parent of FPL, gave $500,000 by January 2026 and $1 million by July 2026; Duke Energy $500,000; a TECO-associated company $125,000 in August 2026, per [News4Jax](news4jax.com), [VoteWater](votewater.org) and the [Miami Times](miamitimesonline.com). The CLEO Institute counts $1.79 million from Florida's major utilities across his career, second only to Wilton Simpson, per [Florida Phoenix](newsfromthestates.com). NextEra's PAC has given to his House committee every cycle, including $12,000 in 2026, per [FundVoter](fundvoter.org). Data center backers gave Ferreira Construction $500,000, Phillips Infrastructure and Palm Beach Aggregates $350,000, Timberline Real Estate Partners at least $34,000 and Fort Meade LLC $10,000, per the [Tampa Bay Times](kdhnews.com). Seeking Rents counts more than $6 million from data center boosters in direct gifts and ad support, and more than $3.5 million from AIF and Chamber committees that themselves took more than $6 million from data center interests, per [Seeking Rents](jasongarcia.substack.com). His 2025 disclosure shows up to $390,000 in data-center-linked stocks in Microsoft, Amazon and Monolithic Power Systems, per [Mother Jones](motherjones.com).

What this bloc wants. The Public Service Commission approved a $6.9 billion FPL rate increase on November 20, 2025 with a 10.95 percent return on equity against a national average near 9.7 percent. NextEra's chief executive says a major Florida data center project will be announced by year end, and AI and data center regulation is expected to top the 2027 session. A July 2026 UNF poll found 68 percent of Floridians oppose data centers in their area.

What Donalds has done. At the June 23, 2026 Chamber endorsement event he rejected a cap on utility return on equity: "a cap might sound good politically, but it's a terrible solution," comparing it to rent control, and he favors small modular nuclear, hydrogen and another gas pipeline, per [Florida Phoenix](newsfromthestates.com). On data centers he opposes a moratorium as "a signal to the business community that this is not a place to invest capital," wants setback rules and says rates cannot rise because of a hyperscale center, per the [Orlando Sentinel](govtech.com). Jolly would cap ROE at the national average and impose a one-year moratorium.

Inference. This is the bloc where the policy divergence from his opponent is sharpest and the money is most lopsided, and it is also where he holds personal stock positions. His defense that "I don't tell him what to trade" refers to his Moran Wealth adviser; the Campaign Legal Center's Kedric Payne says that "does not in any way remove the conflict of interest."

Developers, builders and construction: a $1 million day on September 15

Documented. Mori Hosseini's MHK of Volusia County gave $500,000 on September 15, 2026; the Hutson Companies $250,000 the same day plus $100,000 earlier; the Davis family's DDI Inc. and PARC Group $100,000 each that day plus Big Creek Timber $100,000 earlier; Dream Finders Homes $50,000 that day, per [Seeking Rents](jasongarcia.substack.com). Pat Neal and his companies have given more than $640,000 including $100,000 personally and $10,000 from Neal Land and Neighborhoods on October 8, 2026; Carlos Beruff of Medallion Home gave his first $100,000 on October 8; Sonya Montgomery $80,000 in August, per the [Bradenton Journal](thebradentonjournal.substack.com) and [Miami Times](miamitimesonline.com). Airbnb gave $1.5 million on May 19, 2026 to The People Versus The Powerful, a committee chaired by its own Southeast policy lead, which transferred $1 million to the Donalds PAC the same day, per [WGCU](wgcu.org). VoteWater counted nearly $3 million from real estate, construction and housing finance as of March 2026, and the Tampa Bay Times ranks the category second among his large-dollar sources. Florida Realtors PAC endorsed him August 21, 2026 and put $10 million into Yes On 3, per [Florida Trend](floridatrend.com). Associated Builders and Contractors of Florida endorsed in April 2026. The American Council of Engineering Companies PAC is his top 2026 House PAC donor at $15,000.

What this bloc wants. Property rights, fewer local growth restrictions, state preemption of vacation rental rules, and Amendment 3's cut in the non-homestead assessment cap from 10 to 5 percent along with higher transaction volume from property tax relief. Hosseini had attended a June 2025 DeSantis dinner about finding a Donalds challenger before giving $500,000 in September, per [NBC News](nbcnews.com).

What Donalds has done. As a state representative in 2020 he called vacation rentals "a boon to Southwest Florida" and backed a bill blocking local regulation. He supports Amendment 3, permitting reform, review of building material mandates and reciprocal contractor licensing, and Erika Donalds expects Tallahassee to revisit the Live Local Act.

Inference. The September 15 cluster looks like a coordinated post-primary consolidation of the development industry around the nominee, with Hosseini's move marking the moment the DeSantis donor network conceded. None of these builders gave to Jolly.

Insurance and tort: a plan that keeps everything carriers won

Documented. Heritage P&C Insurance gave $50,000 in August 2026, per [Miami Times](miamitimesonline.com). State Farm Federal PAC gave $14,000 across eight contributions to his House account in the 2026 cycle, per [FundVoter](fundvoter.org), and in 2023 sixteen insurance PACs gave $94,000, per the [Paradise Progressive](theparadiseprogressive.com). Gary Kompothecras of 1-800-ASK-GARY gave $79,000. He chaired the Florida House Insurance and Banking Subcommittee before Congress. No source itemized property insurer or reinsurer gifts to the governor PAC, which is a gap.

What this bloc wants. Preservation of the 2022 and 2023 lawsuit-limiting reforms and continued shrinking of Citizens. AFP Action's endorsement said explicitly: "We are glad that Congressman Donalds wants to protect Florida's 2023 tort reform laws," per [AFP Action](afpaction.com).

What Donalds has pledged. His "Bring Down the Bill" plan of September 2026 cuts the Cat Fund surcharge when reserves are strong, lets insurers pool reinsurance, keeps the tort reforms, keeps shrinking Citizens from 1.4 million policies to about 274,000, adds an insurer scorecard, and targets a 20 to 25 percent cost reduction, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). His ads call Jolly's state wind insurer plan a "$1,000 hurricane tax," which PolitiFact found relies on a study of a different proposal, per [PolitiFact](politifact.com).

Inference. Every element of the plan preserves the structure insurers obtained in 2022 and 2023; the scorecard is the only piece that imposes anything on carriers. The insurance money visible in the file is small relative to the stakes, which suggests either that insurers give through trade committees the notes could not trace or that the policy alignment did not need to be purchased.

Crypto and finance: Winklevoss, Robinhood, a16z and a same-day bitcoin buy

Documented. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss of Gemini gave $500,000 each by August 2025, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). Robinhood gave $200,000 and Kalshi $75,000 to the state PAC. On the federal side the a16z founders are the one consistent crypto and AI bloc: Christopher Dixon $13,200, Ben Horowitz $13,200, Marc Andreessen $6,600 and Laura Andreessen $6,600 in the 2024 cycle, and Dixon $12,000 and Horowitz $8,500 plus Google NETPAC $5,000 in 2026, per [Follow the Crypto](influence.citationneeded.news). Robinhood Markets PAC gave $1,000 to Proven Conservatives PAC in 2023 and UBS Americas PAC $5,000 in December 2024. The Tampa Bay Times' billionaire list is dominated by trading and market makers: Yass, Griffin, Peterffy. FundVoter puts finance and banking at $112,000, the largest industry in his 2026 House receipts. No Fairshake or Defend American Jobs spending on any Donalds race was found; the crypto super PAC network spent on Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis in 2025 instead, per [Axios](axios.com).

What Donalds has done. He voted for FIT21 on May 22, 2024, the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act, per the [House Clerk](clerk.house.gov) and his [office release](donalds.house.gov), introduced a bill in May 2025 to codify the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and sits on the Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and AI. On December 18, 2025 he and 18 colleagues wrote the IRS asking it to stop treating staking rewards as income on receipt; the same day his disclosure records a $50,001 to $100,000 bitcoin purchase, which his office attributed to Erika, per [NOTUS](notus.org). A further $1,001 to $15,000 bitcoin purchase on January 8, 2026 appears in a periodic transaction report, per the [House Clerk](disclosures-clerk.house.gov).

Inference. The federal crypto votes are the baseline for the industry's affection, but the state money from Yass, Robinhood and Kalshi is more plausibly about Florida prediction market policy than federal bills. The bitcoin episode is the only item in the entire file where an official act and a personal financial transaction fall on the same day.

AI industry: Leading the Future's $3 million through a Staples mailbox

Documented. Leading the Future, the federal super PAC funded by Andreessen Horowitz at $25 million, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz at $12.5 million each and Greg and Anna Brockman at $25 million, pledged $5 million for Donalds and gave $3 million on March 4, 2026 to American Mission Florida, a state committee registered in February 2026 at a Tallahassee Staples store address and chaired by Sarasota Property Appraiser Bill Furst, which put about $2 million into pro-Donalds primary ads, per [WGCU](wgcu.org) and [NBC News](nbcnews.com). The Campaign Legal Center filed an FEC complaint in May 2026 alleging shell vendors Summit Ridge Media Group and Lantern Production Consultants hid the spending, per [Hoodline](hoodline.com). Eric Schmidt's $500,000 in October and Microsoft's $3,000 to his leadership PAC round out the bloc. Google, Meta and Amazon each gave more than $400,000 to Florida candidates and committees this cycle.

What this bloc wants. Permissive state AI regulation, data center siting and power, and no moratorium. What Donalds has pledged aligns: conditional support for data centers, opposition to a moratorium, and an education plan built on AI and ed-tech. Jolly's line on the first day of early voting was that Donalds is "funded with over $10 million of data center money," per the [Orlando Sentinel](thederrick.com).

Inference. The same a16z network that wrote small federal checks since 2024 scaled to seven figures once a governorship with siting and regulatory authority was in reach. UCF's Aubrey Jewett called the PAC-to-PAC routing "a form of political money laundering."

Sugar and agriculture: no direct checks, but conduits carry the money

Documented. VoteWater found that as of March 2026 Big Sugar gave nothing directly but Associated Industries of Florida PAC gave $525,000 and The Florida PC more than $237,000, both sugar-funded conduits, per [VoteWater](votewater.org). AIF's committees were funded 2019 to 2022 by Florida Crystals at $6.7 million, U.S. Sugar at $4.5 million, HCA at $4.9 million, FPL at $2.3 million and Disney at $2 million, per [Seeking Rents](jasongarcia.substack.com). Florida Crystals gave $500,000 on June 15, 2026 to "The Committee," which gave $360,000 in three contributions to Friends of Byron Donalds, per [VoteWater](votewater.org). Mosaic Global Sales, the phosphate miner, gave $200,000. Robert and Maryann Spencer of West Coast Tomato gave $109,000. On the federal side American Crystal Sugar PAC and U.S. Sugar ESOP PAC gave $5,000 each in 2020, seven sugar PACs gave $11,000 in the 2024 cycle, and his staff took trips sponsored by the South Florida Agricultural Foundation and the Louisiana Sugar Cane Foundation, per the [Howard Center](cnsmaryland.org). A Jason Garcia post reporting a direct $205,000 from Florida Crystals could not be fetched and is provisional. Florida Farm Bureau FarmPAC and AIF endorsed him.

What this bloc wants. Protection of the federal sugar program, which the One Big Beautiful Bill he voted for on July 3, 2025 strengthened by raising the loan rate from 19.75 to 24 cents per pound, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com), and a governor who does not press the EAA reservoir fight.

What Donalds has done. The Everglades Trust endorsed him October 6, 2026 for the Lake Okeechobee regulation schedule, and he committed to "finishing Everglades restoration," while sugar and the EAA reservoir went unmentioned, per [The Floridian](floridianpress.com). VoteWater argues his voting record does not match the rhetoric.

Inference. Sugar's choice to give through AIF, The Florida PC and The Committee rather than directly is a deliberate pattern, and it means the headline donor lists understate the industry's stake in him.

Pro-Israel groups: a coalition signal, not a money story

Documented. AIPAC PAC gave a net $18,415 to his House committee across 2022 and 2024, per [ProPublica](projects.propublica.org); the Republican Jewish Coalition PAC $488 in 2024. Aggregators disagree on totals because they count earmarked individual gifts differently: WhoFundsMyRep puts all pro-Israel PAC money at $74,692, per [WhoFundsMyRep](whofundsmyrep.com), and VoteLog at $104,719, of which $45,119 was bundled through 41 conduit donors, per [VoteLog](votelog.org). No United Democracy Project independent expenditure and no AIPAC-funded Israel trip appears in any database. Forty Florida rabbis endorsed him October 16, 2026.

What Donalds has done. Yea on the Iron Dome supplemental, the April 2024 Israel supplemental, anti-BDS labeling and the ICC sanctions bill; Nay on the Antisemitism Awareness Act on stated constitutional grounds. He opposes divesting Florida from Israel bonds and in May 2026 said "Israel is our ally. That is not going to change," which became a primary wedge against James Fishback, per [The Floridian](floridianpress.com).

Inference. The dollar amounts are trivial against a $149 million operation. Israel functions as a coalition marker in this race. No source ties Donalds to any Israeli entity, and the Kohelet question above is about his donor, not about him.

Donalds' own finances and disclosure problems

Donalds entered Congress reporting assets of $69,044 to $984,998 and a Moran Wealth Management partnership stake of $100,001 to $250,000, with 2019 to 2020 earned income from Moran of $172,000 and from Wells Fargo Advisors of $66,825, per his [2020 amended filing](disclosures-clerk.house.gov). His most recent annual report, filed August 13, 2026, shows $1.6 million to $7 million in assets, almost entirely Erika's holding company Onesto LLC and its Optima subsidiaries, plus a spouse bitcoin IRA, offset by a Cross Country Mortgage of $500,001 to $1 million from July 2024 and a federal student loan of $250,001 to $500,000 from September 2021, per the [2025 annual report](disclosures-clerk.house.gov). Third-party midpoint estimates run from $630,000 to $2.6 million by the Naples Daily News to $4.63 million by Quiver Quantitative, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com). The large liabilities mean the headline asset range overstates net worth considerably.

The STOCK Act record. On September 5, 2024 the Campaign Legal Center filed an Office of Congressional Ethics complaint alleging Donalds and his wife made 108 trades worth up to $1.6 million in 2022 and 2023 without filing a single periodic transaction report, per [Campaign Legal Center](campaignlegal.org). CLC focused on 12 trades in six companies under House Financial Services jurisdiction: Elevance, Humana, JPMorgan, MSCI, RLI and WaFd; Elevance gave $2,500 and JPMorgan's PAC $3,000 to his campaign in 2023, and CLC said he was the only member it found who "completely failed to report any PTRs for two years," per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). In March 2022 he had said on television that STOCK Act violators should face sanctions. LegiStorm's index confirms no PTRs for 2022 or 2023 and regular filings since, per [LegiStorm](legistorm.com). No OCE or Ethics Committee action has been made public.

The amended disclosures. His original 2023 report valued OptimaEd at "over $1,000,000" and omitted Erika's stake in Optima Management Services entirely; the amendment adding it came two weeks after a June 2025 Florida Bulldog story, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). On October 5, 2026 Florida Bulldog reported that his reports for 2021 through 2024 omitted the student loans and the mortgage, amended June 4, 2026, and that an August 13, 2026 amendment added an omitted Nuveen fund in Erika's retirement account; spokesman Gates McGavick said he is "committed to disclosure" and declined to explain the omissions, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). Erika's $183,326 salary from Optima Foundation in 2021 was not reported on his 2021 or 2022 disclosures either. The pattern across filings is under-disclosure corrected after press reports rather than adjudicated violations.

MUR 7783. CLC's August 2020 FEC complaint alleged a soft money chain: the original state committee Friends of Byron Donalds raised $98,707, gave $87,000 to Conservatives for Effective Government on January 3, 2020, the day Donalds resigned as chair and three days before he filed for Congress; CFEG sent $107,038.66 back labeled a refund; the state committee told Florida it had ceased operations on June 4, 2020 and then gave $107,456 on June 22, 2020 to Trusted Conservatives, a federal super PAC that spent $82,025 on mail for him, per the [First General Counsel's Report](fec.gov). The Office of General Counsel recommended reason-to-believe findings against Donalds personally; the Commission split 3 to 3 twice, then voted 6 to 0 to close the file with no penalty on April 26, 2022, per the [FEC](fec.gov).

The 2025 refund dispute. Within two days of his February 25, 2025 governor announcement, the House committee transferred $1.2 million to the new state PAC, per [Florida Trident](floridatrident.org). On August 5, 2025 an FEC Reports Analysis Division letter said contributions received after the announcement "must be refunded, except to the extent there were net debts outstanding," covering roughly $400,000; the next day treasurer Crate filed a Form 99 asserting Donalds "has not ended his Congressional re-election campaign" so nothing had to be refunded, per the [Form 99](docquery.fec.gov). The House account went on raising about $125,000 more through June 2026 and only told the FEC on August 6, 2026 that he was no longer a candidate, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). Experts told Florida Bulldog the dual candidacy may violate the spirit but not the letter of Florida's one-office rule. Whether any of the $400,000 was ever refunded is unverified. Separately, the House committee paid aide Larry Wilcoxson $133,450 across more than 160 disbursements from 2020 to March 2025, per a [Blaze opinion column](theblaze.com) using FEC data.

The bitcoin timing. The December 18, 2025 IRS letter and the same-day $50,001 to $100,000 purchase are described above. His office said Erika bought it and that the letter "had no bearing whatsoever on the spot price of Bitcoin." Former Representative Reid Ribble's reaction was "the timing of it really, really looks bad," per [NOTUS](notus.org). On April 10, 2025, a week after the tariff announcement, the couple traded $8,008 to $120,000 in Visa, Nu Holdings, Amphenol and Regeneron. Donalds says he supports Representative Luna's bill to bar members and family from trading individual stocks, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com). No Florida Form 6 for him as a gubernatorial candidate was located, though one should exist.

Erika Donalds' Optima entities and the conflict a governor cannot recuse from

The structure. Erika Donalds co-formed the nonprofit Optima Foundation in late 2017, renamed Education Freedom Foundation in March 2025, and then shifted the management business into two for-profit firms she owns through Onesto LLC, an anonymous Delaware entity formed in 2018 of which she is sole member: OptimaEd, formed 2020, 81 percent hers and converted to a C corporation in November 2025, and Optima Management Services, formed 2022 with her as founder and sole manager, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). A new entity, Dewalt Impact Group LLC of Lewes, Delaware, appears for the first time in the 2025 disclosure with business income of $100,001 to $1 million, while the Optima Management Services valuation fell from $1 million to $5 million down to $250,001 to $500,000, per the [2025 annual report](disclosures-clerk.house.gov). No reporting on Dewalt was found. She leads education policy at the America First Policy Institute, sits on a DeSantis-appointed FGCU trustee seat, and was a Heritage Foundation visiting fellow.

The dollar flows. Auditor filings show the Foundation received management fees of $4,303,822 from Treasure Coast Classical, $8,424,572 from Naples Classical and $2,398,221 from Jacksonville Classical, roughly $15.1 million; Optima-run schools paid Educator Solutions, a payroll firm founded by state Representative John Snyder that paid Erika more than $500,000 in salary, $6,930,584 in 2020 to 2022; the two for-profits took in $5,843,969 in 2023 alone; Naples Classical's 12 percent fee rose from $1.24 million to the Foundation in 2021 to 2022 to $1.56 million to Optima Management Services in 2023 to 2024; and the virtual Optima Classical Academy paid OptimaEd $1,085,266 in 2023 and $2.1 million in 2024, nearly 89 percent of the $3,588,660 in government funds it received, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). CBS News found that between 2020 and 2023 the schools spent roughly 30 percent of their government funding, about $35 million, on outside firms tied to Erika, and a University of Miami charter expert found students at the four opened schools performed below average in math and reading, per [CBS via Ravitch](dianeravitch.net). Summit Construction Management won $14.4 million, $20 million, $1 million and $11 million in building contracts for the schools, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). The flows overlap and are not additive, but they are consistent with the CBS figure.

The breakups and lawsuits. Treasure Coast Classical terminated its Foundation contract December 31, 2023 and both Jacksonville academies ended ties in 2023 citing auditor deficiencies in debts, textbooks, revenues and vendor invoices. All four opened schools have cut ties. Treasure Coast Classical sued in late 2024, alleging Optima subcontracted all its employees to OptimaEd over a board veto, steered no-bid contracts to Summit, paid a $127,487.98 Summit invoice without authorization and failed to disclose that Summit-related entities had invested in Optima-related entities; a Martin County judge dismissed on venue grounds in May 2025 and the school appealed, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). The Fort Myers campus that broke ground in 2023 never opened and was transferred to another operator in October 2025, which James Fishback used as a primary press event, per [Fox 4](fox4now.com). Paul Renner proposed a ban on first-time government contracts to officials and spouses and three-day trade disclosure in direct response, and Jay Collins' April 2026 opposition document led with the $35 million figure.

The conflict question. Erika says she does no business with the state of Florida and that there is "no conflict," and the campaign calls her work a longstanding career, per [Florida Trib](floridatrib.org). The accurate framing is narrower than "state contracts" and more structural: her firms are paid by charter schools and a virtual academy whose revenue is state per-pupil funding and taxpayer scholarships, her Education Freedom Foundation sells consulting to charter founders in ESA states, and she publicly advocates funding vouchers from the same pot as public schools. A governor appoints the Commissioner of Education through the State Board he appoints, signs the education budget, and oversees the scholarship funding organizations. Unlike a legislator, he cannot recuse from the Department of Education. No source quantified ESA dollars flowing to OptimaEd beyond the virtual charter's $3.59 million, and no ethics complaint or investigation specifically about her contracts was found, so the defensible claim is a structural conflict and a documented history of under-disclosure, not a documented quid pro quo.

Conclusion: which interests a Governor Donalds would plausibly serve

The money map points to four interests with both the dollars and a live decision in front of the next governor: the gambling industry on both sides of a prediction market and compact fight he has not taken a position on; the detention vendors owed $417 million whose invoices he would approve; utilities and data center builders who need the PSC and siting law he has already promised not to tighten; and the school choice ecosystem that pays his household. Insurers and developers already have most of what they want and are paying to keep it. The billionaires at the top, Griffin, Yass, Uihlein and Peterffy, are buying a low-tax, school choice governor in the largest state they can, and his property tax elimination pledge is the clearest delivery on that. What the record does not show is a vote-for-check exchange on any single item, and Donalds' TikTok votes against Yass's core financial interest are the strongest evidence that he is not simply transactional.

The two vulnerabilities an opponent or a reporter can press without overstating are the disclosure pattern and the household conflict. Four years of inaccurate forms, a two-year PTR blackout, a 3 to 3 FEC deadlock and a rebuffed refund demand are documented and sourced. The Optima flows are documented to the dollar. The Kohelet claim is not, and using it would hand the campaign an easy rebuttal. The October 30 filing will tell whether the DeVos, Florida Crystals and Disney gifts reported secondhand are real and whether GEO's October $1 million lands as reported.

What we could not verify

The researchers flagged the following gaps. The Florida Division of Elections database, Transparency USA, OpenSecrets, the FEC API and several Florida Politics and Tampa Bay Times pages were unreachable, so no state contribution figure here was pulled from raw filings; exact dates of the Griffin, Yass, Seminole and Club for Growth tranches are unconfirmed, and the $5 million plus $2.5 million split of Yass's $7.5 million is inferred. No OpenSecrets industry breakdown or itemized individual donor list for the 2020, 2022 or 2024 House cycles was obtained. No source tied Paul Singer, the Marcus family, Robert Bigelow, Tim Dunn, Farris Wilks, Isaac Perlmutter, Miriam Adelson, Dan Loeb, Rebekah Mercer, Kelcy Warren, Harlan Crow, Charles Schwab or Steve Witkoff to any Donalds committee; that is not found rather than ruled out. Direct gifts from U.S. Sugar, Florida Crystals, Disney, Publix, Citizens or the Florida Chamber PAC are unquantified, and the Jason Garcia post reporting $205,000 from Florida Crystals and $78,000 in-kind from Disney is provisional. Itemized payees of Friends of Byron Donalds, including media buyers and consultants, were not retrievable. Whether any of the roughly $400,000 the FEC said must be refunded was ever refunded is unknown. No public OCE or House Ethics outcome on the 2024 CLC complaint was found. No Florida Form 6 for Donalds as a candidate was located. Dewalt Impact Group LLC has no reporting. Club for Growth Action Florida's registration date, total receipts and other donors are unknown. The original Haaretz 2021, New York Times March 2023 and Washington Post March 2023 Kohelet articles were paywalled and are relayed through JTA, InfluenceWatch, PBS and AP. Florida parties and committees have not disclosed donors since August 14; the full general election reports are due October 30, 2026, which is the next data drop and should be loaded before any late-October number is treated as final.

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Byron Donalds' $149 million campaign is best understood not as a donor list but as a queue of decisions that will land on the governor's desk between January 2027 and the end of 2028, and the money sorts cleanly by which decision each donor needs. The four blocs with both large money and a live decision are the gambling industry, which is paying from both sides of a Seminole exclusivity fight that moved from theory to a Broward courtroom on October 8, 2026 when the Tribe sued DraftKings; the immigration detention vendors, who are owed more than $417 million by a state agency the governor controls and whose joint venture holds a $101 million Deportation Depot contract with about $69 million of headroom left; the utilities and data center builders, who need a Public Service Commission that keeps approving cost recovery as FPL plans 8 gigawatts of new data center load and Duke's rate settlement expires after 2027; and the school choice economy, a $4 billion to $4.5 billion a year program with a November 2025 audit the House declined to act on and a first family whose wealth sits inside it. Behind those four stand the billionaires who fund the whole structure, Griffin and Yass above all, who want a low-tax, pro-business, school choice state and whose Florida asks are mostly preservation rather than change. The first report, [Byron Donalds money and donor network](/home/claude/reports/Byron%20Donalds%20money%20and%20donor%20network.md), mapped who gave and how much; this report follows the money one hop upstream and one hop downstream, into what each funder wants, what the governor can actually do about it, the dollar stakes, and the dates. The single clearest finding is structural: Florida lets unlimited money into a candidate's affiliated committee, the governor appoints every member of the PSC and the Gaming Control Commission, runs the Division of Emergency Management that pays detention vendors under a no-bid emergency, chairs the board that controls $250 million in immigration grants, appoints the boards that permit development and allocate housing money, and picks 11 of 25 members of the 2027 Taxation and Budget Reform Commission. Donalds has stated positions that satisfy the utilities, insurers, developers, AI investors and voucher operators, and has stayed silent on the one fight where his donors oppose each other, the Seminole compact versus prediction markets. What ordinary Floridians would experience is higher electric bills with no return cap, continued voucher expansion without audit controls, a detention program that keeps drawing general revenue, a property tax shift that costs local governments an estimated $12 billion a year with service cuts or fees to fill it, and a continued exodus from Citizens into pricier private policies. David Jolly's stated program reverses most of that: a return on equity cap at the national average, a data center moratorium, means-tested vouchers, an end to the 287g county mandate, Medicaid expansion and a state catastrophe wind fund.

The deal: ranked interests with money in and a decision pending

The ranking below weighs two things, the size of the money already in and the concreteness of a decision the governor personally controls. Interests that gave heavily but mostly want continuity rank below those with a dated choice in front of the next governor.

Gambling and prediction markets: the Tribe has already fired, and the governor must pick a side

Documented. The 2021 compact runs through July 31, 2051 and grants the Seminole Tribe exclusivity over slots, craps, roulette, banked card games, fantasy contests and statewide mobile sports betting through a hub-and-spoke server model, with the state guaranteed at least $2.5 billion over the first five years, per the [Florida Senate summary](flsenate.gov). The state's revenue estimators recorded $817.3 million in revenue share in FY 2024 to 2025, forecast $903.3 million for FY 2025 to 2026, and project more than $1 billion a year from FY 2028 to 2029, roughly $6.1 billion over the forecast period, per the [EDR Indian Gaming conference of Aug 4, 2025](edr.state.fl.us). The compact's only built-in reopener was a 36-month good-faith negotiation window on online casino gaming, which closed in late 2024 without an amendment, per the same Senate summary. The governor executes compacts and must cooperate in seeking Interior approval, and compacts take effect only after legislative ratification, per [Fla. Stat. 285.710](codes.findlaw.com). The governor also appoints all five members of the Florida Gaming Control Commission, subject to Senate confirmation, for four-year terms, and is barred from soliciting recommendations from anyone tied to a tribe's gaming operation, per [Fla. Stat. 16.71](flsenate.gov).

On October 8, 2026 the Tribe filed a 72-page complaint in Broward Circuit Court against DraftKings, CEO Jason Robins and GUS III LLC, the operator of DraftKings Predictions, seeking an injunction and disgorgement of all Florida revenue and a civil racketeering finding against Robins personally; the complaint alleges that on August 28, 2026 DraftKings replaced American odds with cent prices for Florida users and that "DraftKings changed the label on the price. It did not change the price, the product, or the transaction," per [Legal Sports Report](legalsportsreport.com). The same complaint alleges DraftKings secretly financed the West Flagler challenge and funded Protect the Constitution LLC, whose Amendment 3 suit Judge Jonathan Sjostrom dismissed for lack of standing on November 6, 2025 and which DraftKings joined as sole member on September 17, 2026; Attorney General James Uthmeier's office had urged dismissal in June 2025, per [CasinoBeats](casinobeats.com) and Legal Sports Report. Kalshi remains legal and available in Florida as of October 2026 with no state action against it, and HB 189, which would have made non-compact online wagering a third-degree felony, did not pass, per [Covers](covers.com). Florida is one of six states that did not sign the attorneys general letter asserting state control over gambling, and Uthmeier "has taken a passive approach on prediction markets but has defended the tribe's compact," per [The Lines](thelines.com). DeSantis raised the question publicly in February 2026, asking on CNBC whether "something like Kalshi" clashes with Florida law, per [Sportsbook Review](sportsbookreview.com). The national map tightened in the fall: the Sixth Circuit held on September 25, 2026 that Kalshi had not shown its sports contracts are swaps under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, the Ninth Circuit found two California tribes likely to succeed on IGRA claims, and 39 state attorneys general plus 130 tribes urged the Supreme Court to hear New Jersey's petition, per [Pillsbury](pillsburylaw.com) and [CDC Gaming](cdcgaming.com).

The Tribe's giving tracks every office that touches the compact: $5.5 million to Friends of Byron Donalds, $1 million to Wilton Simpson, $750,000 to Senator Jim Boyd, $750,000 to the Republican Party of Florida, $200,000 to the Florida Democratic Party, $50,000 to Uthmeier and $50,000 to Charlie Crist's St. Petersburg mayoral run, with nothing to Jolly, per [CardPlayer](cardplayer.com), The Lines and [WLRN](wlrn.org). Kalshi has given more than $400,000 in Florida, mostly to Republicans, including $50,000 to Uthmeier's committee and $150,000 to legislative leadership funds, per a [Gary Fineout post](x.com) whose body could not be read. The Poarch Band, which owns the Gretna track, a Pensacola card room and the Magic City Casino permit, gave $555,000 statewide, per [Gambling Insider](gamblinginsider.com). Hard Rock CEO Jim Allen has said since 2024 that the Tribe would need to reopen talks on online casino gaming and that Hard Rock has "never" ruled out working with Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel, per [Legal Sports Report](legalsportsreport.com). Donalds has said nothing on the compact, iGaming, prediction markets or the DraftKings suit in any source found; his adviser Danielle Alvarez says he "answers to no one but the people of Florida," per CardPlayer.

Inference. The money from both sides is a purchase of a seat at a renegotiation only the governor can convene. The most concrete Seminole ask is a compact amendment adding online casino gaming, which would need legislative ratification and would draw an Amendment 3 challenge; the most concrete prediction market ask is that Florida keep doing nothing. Because the Tribe has now sued privately, a Governor Donalds can preserve the status quo for a while by letting the Broward court and the Supreme Court decide, but the FGCC appointments and the AG's amicus choices are decisions he cannot defer forever. The 2010 compact precedent shows the cost of guessing wrong: when the state let pari-mutuels run designated player games, the Tribe stopped sharing banked game revenue and parked $19.5 million a month in a reserve the state could not touch, which Florida TaxWatch estimated at nearly $250 million lost, per [Florida TaxWatch](floridataxwatch.org). A governor who sides with prediction markets risks a similar withholding against a payment stream now near $900 million a year.

What changes for Floridians. If the compact is reopened for online casino gaming, Floridians get legal iGaming on their phones, the state gets a larger revenue share, and the pari-mutuels and commercial books get skins if the Tribe agrees. If the state does nothing, prediction markets keep operating at 18 plus with no Florida consumer protections, and the Tribe litigates alone. Either way, the $900 million payment that funds general revenue is the thing at risk, and that money is spread across every state program.

What Jolly would do instead. No Jolly gambling policy was found beyond attacking the donations; the Tribe gave him nothing, which suggests it does not expect him to reopen the compact on its terms.

Detention vendors: a $417 million backlog and a $101 million contract the next governor inherits

Documented. Alligator Alcatraz opened July 3, 2025 and DeSantis closed it June 25, 2026 with zero detainees after CBS reported operating costs heading toward $1 billion; the site was dismantled by mid July, per [E&E News](eenews.net) and [WLOS](wlos.com). Deportation Depot at the former Baker Correctional Institution holds about 1,000 detainees under a GEO and CDR Baker contract capped at $101 million with about $32 million paid as of September 22, 2026, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). As of June 30, 2026 FDEM had more than $417 million unpaid across 592 immigration invoices, and FDEM director Jared Perdue said the federal government still owes Florida more than $523 million, per [WUSF](wusf.org). On September 11, 2026 the Joint Legislative Budget Commission approved $250 million in spending authority on party line votes, about $187 million of it for immigration invoices, after FDEM delivered its required report two months late and about an hour before the meeting, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com). FDEM spent about $989 million in FY 2025 to 2026, nearly $568 million of it on immigration, and projects $500 million more in FY 2026 to 2027 with a worst case $1.5 billion deficit in the emergency fund, per [WUSF](wusf.org). Of the $608 million FEMA grant effective September 30, 2025, Florida had received $84.5 million by mid September 2026, and federal rules bar using it for construction, per WUSF and [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com).

The vendors owed the most are the vendors that gave: IRG Global owed more than $68 million, CDR more than $40 million, GEO and CDR Baker nearly $40 million, Critical Response Strategies more than $35 million, Lemoine CDR Logistics about $27.3 million, against GEO's $2.5 million, CDR's $620,000 plus, ARS's $100,000 plus, Lemoine's $59,000 and CRS's $10,000 to Friends of Byron Donalds, and no vendor with outstanding invoices gave to Jolly, per [WUSF](wusf.org). GEO added another $1 million in the October 3 to 9 week, per [Jason Garcia](x.com). The same firms have covered every plausible DeSantis successor: CDR Enterprises gave Uthmeier $25,000 on March 11, 2025 and $250,000 on September 17, 2025, about two weeks after the Deportation Depot staffing contract, and $500,000 to a DeSantis committee, per [Florida Trib](floridatrib.org). ARS, the Canadian-owned parent of IRG that faced more than $30 million in Hurricane Ian condo liens and fraud countersuits, gave $99,980 to Friends of Ron DeSantis in November 2022, $99,980 to RPOF three months later, $75,000 to Ashley Moody and $100,000 to RPOF in October 2025, per [Florida Trident via WGCU](wgcu.org) and the [Miami Herald via Daily Gazette](dailygazette.com). Florida Bulldog found 719 emergency procurement contracts without competitive bidding, including 45 to CDR Maguire, and DeSantis has extended the January 2023 immigration emergency more than 20 times, per [Unicorn Riot](unicornriot.ninja) and Florida Phoenix.

GEO's federal position makes Florida a side business that still matters. Q2 2026 revenue was $732.1 million, FY 2026 guidance is $2.95 billion to $3.05 billion, ICE is 48 percent of revenue, and the Graceville and Bay prisons, about $100 million a year combined, "are now expected to transition to GEO July 1, 2027," per [GEO's Aug 6, 2026 8-K](sec.gov). GEO Reentry Services gave $1 million to MAGA Inc. on July 16, 2026, three days after the Hudson, Colorado award, and $413,000 on July 31, two days after the Winton, North Carolina deal, per [Prison Legal News](prisonlegalnews.org). GEO gave more than $740,000 to the Republican Governors Association in 2022, including $150,000 less than two weeks before DeSantis renewed its South Bay contract, on which it has collected more than $320 million since 2009, per [Seeking Rents](jasongarcia.substack.com). It spent $690,000 in the second half of 2024 lobbying on Donalds' bills, including H.R. 8430, the Reshape Alternatives to Detention Act he sponsored, per WUSF and [Congress.gov](congress.gov).

The governor's authority here is unusually direct. SB 2-C, approved February 13, 2025, made the governor and Cabinet the State Board of Immigration Enforcement acting by unanimous vote, created a $250 million local grant program, required a council of sheriffs and chiefs to recommend "detention bed strategies" to increase ICE beds, and exposed noncompliant officials to suspension, per the [Florida Senate summary](flsenate.gov). Donalds has promised to remove local officials and state attorneys who adopt sanctuary policies and said in Jacksonville on October 13, 2026 that "States don't set immigration policy. The federal government does," rejecting a homebuilder's complaint about worksite raids, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com).

Inference. The next governor takes office with roughly $230 million of the June 30 backlog still unfunded, a $500 million immigration line already projected, about $69 million of headroom in the Baker contract, and the FY 2027 to 2028 budget to write. The vendors' ask is not a new facility; it is to be paid first and kept on contract, which is a question of who runs FDEM and whether the emergency declaration continues. GEO's July 2027 Graceville and Bay transition is a Department of Corrections decision that the governor's appointees make. Donalds' statements do not mention a new site, E-Verify or paying the backlog; any claim that he would build another facility is inference.

What changes for Floridians. General revenue keeps backfilling an emergency fund that FEMA will not fully reimburse, which competes with hurricane reserves in the same fund. Sheriffs stay in the 287g program by mandate, cities face suspension threats, and employers in construction and agriculture keep absorbing raids. Detainees stay in a state-run facility that mistakenly released two people in October.

What Jolly would do instead. Jolly has said he would end the state mandate requiring counties to join 287g agreements, per Florida Phoenix; no Jolly position on Deportation Depot or the backlog was found.

Utilities and the PSC: all five seats are the governor's, and Duke's next rate case lands on his desk

Documented. The PSC unanimously approved FPL's settlement on November 20, 2025, described as a roughly $7 billion rate increase and the largest in state history, and the fight moved to the Florida Supreme Court over 2026 to 2027 rates, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com), [E&E News](eenews.net) and [CBS Miami](cbsnews.com). DeSantis reappointed commissioners Gary Clark and Gabriella Passidomo-Smith in 2026, per the [governor's office](flgov.com); the governor picks from a list screened by the PSC Nominating Council, a joint legislative committee, per the [Florida Legislature](leg.state.fl.us). The 2026 Senate reform vehicle, SB 126, would add "affordability" to rate criteria rather than cap returns, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com) and the [bill analysis](flsenate.gov). NextEra raised FPL's data center load forecast to 8 gigawatts by 2032 and its CEO said the first large load deals were "very likely" in 2026, per [Data Center Dynamics](datacenterdynamics.com) and [T&D World](tdworld.com). Duke's multiyear settlement approved in August 2024 runs through 2027, per [WUSF](wusf.org), and the PSC approved $1.55 billion in TECO and Duke storm cost recovery, per [Fox 13](fox13news.com). SB 484, signed May 7, 2026, directs the PSC to "reasonably ensure" data centers pay their own costs, excludes co-ops and municipals, orders an OPPAGA study due July 1, 2027, and preserves local land use authority, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com); PolitiFact rated Donalds' claim that it "ensures" rates will not rise as Half True, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). Donalds rejected a return on equity cap in June 2026 as "a terrible solution" comparable to rent control, as documented in the first report; a Florida Politics poll found voters' blame "shifts hard" once they learn the governor picks the PSC, per [Florida Politics](floridapolitics.com).

Inference. The utility and data center donors want the same thing from the PSC: approval of new gas and nuclear capacity with full cost recovery and a large load tariff hyperscalers will sign, and the only question is whether residential customers are walled off from the cost. Donalds' opposition to an ROE cap means the sole constraint on a repeat of 2025 is the Legislature's "affordability" language if it ever becomes law. Duke's expiring settlement means the next governor's PSC decides the next Duke base rates during his first term, and TECO's cycle follows. Which PSC seats expire in 2027 to 2030 was not retrievable, so the count of seats Donalds would fill is unknown.

What changes for Floridians. Electric bills keep rising on the 2025 trajectory, with FPL's 2026 to 2027 rates set unless the Supreme Court intervenes, and the cost of 8 gigawatts of data center generation is allocated by commissioners the governor appoints under a statute that says "reasonably ensure" rather than "shall not."

What Jolly would do instead. Jolly would cap regulated utility profits at the national average and impose an immediate data center moratorium, per the [ClickOrlando voters guide](clickorlando.com).

Data centers and AI preemption: Leading the Future bought the governor who would succeed DeSantis

Documented. Leading the Future formed August 15, 2025 with a16z at $50 million, the Brockmans at $25 million, Lonsdale and Conway, and supports candidates "committed to a national regulatory framework for AI," which NOTUS calls an industry euphemism for blocking state laws, per [NOTUS via Washington Sun](washingtonsun.com). Florida was its first state-level race: a $5 million pledge in February 2026 and $3 million to American Mission Florida on March 4, 2026, a committee chaired by Sarasota Property Appraiser Bill Furst at a Tallahassee Staples address, which bought about 1,700 spots in Tampa and Tallahassee that promoted Trump's endorsement and never mentioned AI, per [Axios](axios.com), [WUSF](wusf.org) and [Hoodline](hoodline.com). The money arrived while the House sat on DeSantis' AI Bill of Rights: SB 482 passed the Senate 35 to 2 on March 6, 2026, the House gave its companion no hearing, Speaker Perez said "We do believe that the federal government should take care of AI," and after David Sacks and Taylor Budowich contacted Florida officials the House refused to take up DeSantis' April special session, per [WLRN](wlrn.org), [NBC News](nbcnews.com) and [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com). Project Tango, a roughly 37 million square foot campus in Loxahatchee, was rejected by Palm Beach County commissioners on July 16, 2026 as "not compatible," though data center development stayed approved under prior entitlements and the county passed a moratorium, per [WLRN](wlrn.org) and [WFLX](wflx.com). Seeking Rents counts data center interests at $30 million in Florida campaigns, per [Seeking Rents](jasongarcia.substack.com). Donalds voted in May 2025 for the House bill with a 10-year state AI moratorium, now says he "wasn't probably the biggest fan of" it, opposes a statewide moratorium, says "If local governments don't want them, they won't build them," and introduced a federal Protecting Ratepayers Act in July 2026, per [Florida Phoenix via Orlando Weekly](orlandoweekly.com) and [WUSF](wusf.org). The Anthropic-linked Public First spent more than $1 million praising Donalds for opposing federal preemption, and Alliance for Secure AI's Brendan Steinhauser said "Six months ago, he was sounding more like the industry, and now I think he sounds more like us," per [Politico via NewsBreak](newsbreak.com). A UNF poll found 68 percent of Floridians oppose a local data center and 19 local governments have paused or banned them, per Orlando Weekly. Ken Griffin, separately, called on October 21, 2026 for the country to invest in "AI, data centers, nuclear energy, batteries and robotics," per [Fortune](fortune.com), and his $2 billion CMU Miami campus focuses on AI, national security and energy, per [Fox Business](foxbusiness.com).

Inference. The state hooks for a project a county rejects are the PSC's approval of generation and transmission, DEP and water management district permits, the 100 megawatt plus sales tax exemption, and any statewide preemption of local moratoria. A governor who opposes a moratorium and appoints DEP, the district boards and the PSC can clear every state gate even when a county says no, which is why Palm Beach Aggregates and Phillips money is a bet on the governor rather than the county. Donalds has become a contested figure between AI factions rather than a captured one; his record is mixed, and the most likely 2027 outcome is no state AI statute and a data center framework that stays at "reasonably ensure." The remaining $2 million of the $5 million LTF pledge was not traced.

What changes for Floridians. Siting stays local until the Legislature preempts it, water and power allocation stay with state appointees, and whether a hyperscaler's gas plant shows up on a residential bill depends on PSC enforcement of SB 484. No AI consumer protections of the kind in the dead Senate bill, such as interaction notices or a ban on AI therapy, arrive.

What Jolly would do instead. An immediate one-year moratorium with a complete ban "on the table," per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com).

Developers, Amendment 3 and the homestead push: an $18 million bet by Realtors on a $12 billion shift

Documented. Florida Realtors committed $10 million to Yes On 3 on September 9, 2026 and by WPTV's October accounting had put in $18 million, with supporters outspending opponents 26 to 1, per [WLRN](wlrn.org) and [WPTV](wptv.com). The amendment raises the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and Florida Policy Institute puts the cost at a $12 billion hole in local budgets, per [Central Florida Public Media](cfpublic.org). Polk Sheriff Grady Judd called it "a train wreck" on August 4, 2026, Sarasota's administrator warned of cuts to the sheriff's office, Sierra Club Florida opposed it, Sanford ambulance fees jumped to $1,000 as counties braced, and the Miami-Dade sheriff backs it, per [ClickOrlando](clickorlando.com), [WGCU](wgcu.org), [Hoodline](hoodline.com) and [NBC Miami](nbcmiami.com). Donalds backs Amendment 3, promises "full and complete reform of property taxes and fees" in 2027, earlier floated a $300,000 to $400,000 homestead exemption, narrowed his fallback plan over a "math" problem, and says fiscally constrained counties should not "sing for supper," per the [ClickOrlando voters guide](clickorlando.com) and [Florida Politics](floridapolitics.com). The Taxation and Budget Reform Commission convenes every 20 years and next sits in 2027, per [Wikipedia](en.wikipedia.org). House Speaker Daniel Perez, whose House authored the property tax package, led 63 members in endorsing Donalds and his committees gave $1 million, per [Florida Politics](floridapolitics.com). On growth, a 2025 bill to undo county rural boundaries cleared committee and Seminole County sued, a 2026 law "makes it easier to pave over Florida farmland," and by October 13, 2026 a major developer was eyeing rural Florida with officials saying there was little they could do, per [Spectrum News 13](mynews13.com), [Florida Trident](floridatrib.org) and [WGCU](wgcu.org). Mori Hosseini remains UF trustees chair after DeSantis reappointed him June 9, 2025 amid the presidential search fight, per [WCJB](wcjb.com). Pat Neal and Carlos Beruff, both October donors, are suing Manatee County over impact fees, per the [Bradenton Journal](thebradentonjournal.substack.com). Airbnb's long-running ask is statewide preemption of local short-term rental rules through vehicles like SB 280, per [CBS Miami](cbsnews.com); whether DeSantis vetoed the 2024 version could not be confirmed.

Inference. The Realtors' return is transactional: a bigger exemption raises what buyers can pay, which raises prices and commissions, and the benefit concentrates in higher value homesteads while renters, commercial owners and non-homestead owners face the backfill. The developers' asks are executive as much as legislative: DEP and the five water management district boards issue wetlands and water permits, the governor appoints the Commerce secretary who reviews plan amendments and the Florida Housing board that allocates Live Local money, and he signs impact fee and sprawl bills. Perez's $1 million is leadership buying a governor who signs the House agenda DeSantis slow-walked, and the 63 House endorsements set up a 2027 session where the House and governor are aligned against the Senate. Donalds' "sing for supper" line implies state backfill for rural counties, which is a statement of intent, not a costed plan.

What changes for Floridians. Homestead owners see a lower bill in 2027 and a lower one in 2028; everyone else sees higher millage on non-homestead property, new fees, or thinner fire, EMS, library and park budgets, with the sheriffs split by whether their county has commercial tax base to absorb the shift. Rural boundaries and farmland get easier to convert, and local short-term rental rules may be preempted.

What Jolly would do instead. Jolly opposes Amendment 3 and would "restore home rule over property taxes" and fully fund Sadowski housing money, per the ClickOrlando guide.

Insurance and tort: a plan that changes nothing carriers won

Documented. Citizens has shrunk to about 270,000 policies through depopulation and a non-renewal push while S&P projects its largest full year underwriting loss, per [Insurance Business](insurancebusinessmag.com) and [S&P Global](spglobal.com). Donalds' plan keeps the 2022 and 2023 tort reforms, cuts the Cat Fund surcharge when reserves are strong, lets insurers pool reinsurance, keeps Citizens shrinking, adds an insurer scorecard and targets a 20 to 25 percent reduction; at the Sunshine Economy Summit on September 23, 2026 he asked "Why would we expand the rainy day fund?" and wants to eliminate the Cat Fund surcharge, per [CBS Miami](cbsnews.com). His "$1,000 hurricane tax" label for Jolly's plan relies on an FSU study that did not examine Jolly's proposal and would apply only after a catastrophic storm, per [WUFT](wuft.org) and [PolitiFact](politifact.com). The James Madison Institute argues for restoring Citizens to insurer of last resort, per [JMI](jamesmadison.org). The direct insurance money in the file is small, Heritage P&C's $50,000 and Kompothecras' $79,000, as the first report documented.

Inference. The industry's 2027 ask is defensive: keep tort reform, keep Citizens' eligibility tightening, and secure state reinsurance support. The gainers are carriers and reinsurers; the losers are policyholders pushed off Citizens into higher takeout offers. The small visible insurance money suggests either giving through trade committees the notes could not trace or that the alignment did not need to be bought.

What changes for Floridians. Homeowners keep leaving Citizens for private carriers at higher premiums, the one-way attorney fee and assignment of benefits limits stay, and the Cat Fund surcharge on every policy falls if reserves hold, which is relief that evaporates after the next big storm.

What Jolly would do instead. A state catastrophe wind fund removing hurricane coverage from the private market, whose 60 to 70 percent savings claim fact checkers judged unlikely, per WUFT.

School choice, the voucher economy and the Donalds household: $4.5 billion a year with no audit fix

Documented. Florida's taxpayer-funded choice programs cost about $4.5 billion a year, serve more than 500,000 students at about $8,000 each, and 82 percent of voucher students attend religious schools, per [WLRN](wlrn.org) and [Sarasota Magazine](sarasotamagazine.com). The Auditor General's November 2025 report found overspending, double funding, "a myriad of accountability challenges," and no controls to verify where students were educated; Step Up for Students froze about 28,000 accounts in August 2025; between $1 million and $2 million went to fictitious students; and SB 318, which passed the Senate unanimously with the audit's fixes, died in the House, with Senator Don Gaetz planning to refile in 2027, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). Donalds' education plan has funding follow every student, replaces A to F grades with individualized plans, leans on ACT and SAT and AI and ed tech, expands private sector participation, and contains no voucher accountability measure; he would also tie university funding to whether graduates enter careers tied to their degrees, per WLRN, the [ClickOrlando guide](clickorlando.com) and [The FAMUAN](thefamuanonline.com). Jeff Yass gave $7.5 million including a $2.5 million check in March 2026, proposes giving parents 100 percent of per pupil funding in a savings account, and his spokesperson called Donalds "a school choice warrior," per [Miami New Times](miaminewtimes.com). Erika Donalds said at the Doral event that "Profit is not going to be a bad word when it comes to the education industry," per WLRN. She renamed Optima Foundation the Education Freedom Foundation in March 2025, still controls OptimaEd and Optima Management Services through Onesto LLC, and her foundation and affiliated charters paid more than $10 million to two for-profit companies tied to her, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). Rep. John Snyder's Educator Solutions was paid $6.93 million by Optima-run charters in 2020 to 2022 and paid Erika more than $500,000, per [Florida Bulldog](floridabulldog.org). She chairs AFPI's education center, advises Moms for Liberty and the Classical Learning Test, launched a "Florida Promise Tour" on September 21, 2026, warns that regulating AI could be "overstepping parental rights," and told Axios "I would be doing that whether I'm first lady or not," per [Axios Miami](axios.com). Uihlein gave $2 million to School Freedom Fund in 2023 and $1 million to AFC Victory Fund in 2024; Yass has given more than $209 million to school choice causes in a decade, per [Farley's Substack citing OpenSecrets](steveedwardfarley.substack.com), which is opinion and should be checked against the state database.

Inference. "Funding follows the student" plus individualized plans plus private participation is operationally an ESA expansion toward the Yass model, which routes more money through Step Up and vendor marketplaces of the kind OptimaEd and classical networks sell into. With the House having killed SB 318 and Donalds' plan silent on controls, a Donalds administration is unlikely to push the Auditor General's fixes without outside pressure. No source reports a formal role for Erika Donalds; her influence would be outside the org chart, through AFPI, Heritage and the tour. The conflict is structural because the Department of Education that regulates her clients would report to her husband.

What changes for Floridians. More public money per student moves into private and home education accounts, district budgets like Sarasota's $2.5 million shortfall widen, the A to F grading system parents use to compare schools goes away, and university funding tilts toward engineering, finance, law and medicine over other degrees.

What Jolly would do instead. Means-tested vouchers, semiannual reporting and state standards for schools taking choice money, and teacher raises of "not 3% but 30%" over ten years funded partly from tourism taxes, per [WUSF](wusf.org).

Billionaires' broader agendas: Griffin wants stability, Yass wants school choice and Kalshi, and the Kohelet claim stays off the table

Documented. Griffin's $10 million, reported July 24, 2026, came after DeSantis pitched him at a June 2025 Miami dinner on funding a challenger and at a Fishers Island fundraiser on backing Jay Collins; Griffin did not back DeSantis' 2024 run partly because of its culture war focus, called the Disney feud "pointless," and his 2024 Florida giving of more than $28 million included $12 million against the marijuana initiative, $7 million to RPOF, $4 million each to House and Senate leadership, $1 million to Mayor Suarez and $500,000 to Mayor Levine Cava, after which Citadel's lobbyists won a carveout in the Chinese property law, per [NBC News](nbcnews.com), [Fortune](fortune.com) and [Seeking Rents](jasongarcia.substack.com). His 2026 giving includes $2.5 million to the Moody super PAC, $10 million to Senate Leadership Fund and $5 million to Congressional Leadership Fund, per [Hedgeweek](hedgeweek.com) and [Fortune](fortune.com). His Miami build-out now includes a $2 billion CMU campus, a 54-story Citadel tower, and $75 million to Baptist Health, per [Fox Business](foxbusiness.com) and [Billionaires.Africa](billionaires.africa). Yass is the main funder of Club for Growth Action, $10 million in November 2025 and $15 million in the cycle, which spent about $705,000 against Casey Askar in FL-22 and $456,000 against Kathy Castor in FL-14, and whose Win It Back PAC spent $1.1 million against Chris Collins in Donalds' open FL-19 seat, per [Legis1](legis1.com) and [Axios](axios.com). Club for Growth PAC's Florida endorsements are Donalds, Uthmeier, Luna and Beltran, per [Club for Growth](clubforgrowth.org). Yass' Trump relationship flipped from refusal to $16 million to MAGA Inc. in early 2025 and $5 million to the White House ballroom, and the January 2026 TikTok joint venture gave a Susquehanna affiliate a board seat, per [Sludge](readsludge.com), the [Philadelphia Inquirer](inquirer.com) and [Technical.ly](technical.ly). Uihlein's $2 million direct is dwarfed by Restoration of America's $17.5 million to Club for Growth Action, per Legis1. Peterffy's Interactive Brokers runs ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, per [Business Wire](businesswire.com).

The Kohelet and Israel giving question, stated as precisely as the sources allow. The Claws Foundation, EIN 20-1658710, is Arthur Dantchik's vehicle: Shomrim attributes its funding "exclusively to Dantchik over the past decade," about $220 million from 2013 to 2020, and ProPublica lists Yass as a director only from 2015 to 2022, per [Shomrim](shomrim.news) and [ProPublica](projects.propublica.org). Claws' largest Israel grantee by far is the pluralist Shalom Hartman Institute, more than $25 million from 2010 to 2020 and $31 million per a spokesperson, followed by Jerusalem Online University at $7.9 million, with smaller grants to the Taub Center and American Friends of Hebrew University, per Shomrim, [Responsible Statecraft](responsiblestatecraft.org) and [Wikipedia](en.wikipedia.org). The Kohelet money ran through conduits: Claws moved about $12 million in 2021 to Silver Valley Research Foundation, most of which went to the Central Fund of Israel, and Kohelet received about 25 million shekels from CFI in 2021 and 29 million in 2022 with CFI as its sole listed donor; "no direct Claws transfers to Kohelet have been identified," per Shomrim. Dantchik announced in August 2023 that he would stop funding Israeli think tanks including Kohelet, and Calcalist, the New York Times and the Washington Post reported that Yass never donated to Kohelet, contradicting Haaretz's 2021 report, per the [Jerusalem Post](jpost.com) and the [Inquirer](inquirer.com). The Guardian and Responsible Statecraft "$16 million" figure attributed to Yass is mostly Claws money and therefore mostly Dantchik's by the same logic; the piece "doesn't separate the two individually," per Responsible Statecraft. Yass' own Israel-adjacent giving that can be documented is $3 million to Hadassah in 2023 through the Susquehanna Foundation, per [InfluenceWatch](influencewatch.org), and QXZ Inc.'s $1.5 million to Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran, $250,000 to the Emergency Committee for Israel and $1.05 million to the Republican Jewish Coalition, which his spokesperson denies he directed. No source links either man to Tikvah, Shalem, Im Tirtzu or Regavim. The defensible sentence is: Yass sat on the board of the foundation that funded the conduit to Kohelet; Dantchik paid for it and withdrew.

Inference. Griffin is buying a stable, low-drama, pro-business state to anchor Citadel and a university cluster, and his $4 million each to legislative leaders in 2024 shows he works the Legislature directly; a Donalds governorship aligned with Perez's House fits. Yass' Florida asks by his representative's own framing are school choice first and, through Kalshi, non-enforcement against prediction markets. Donalds' TikTok votes against Yass' core financial interest remain the best evidence that he is not purely transactional, and the January 2026 federal deal resolved that question outside Florida anyway.

What changes for Floridians. Little directly from Griffin beyond continuity and a Miami tech and university buildout; from Yass, a larger ESA regime and a state that keeps its hands off prediction markets.

What Jolly would do instead. Jolly's only billionaire was J.B. Pritzker at $50,000, per [Bonus.com](bonus.com); his program on vouchers, utilities and data centers runs against every item on this list.

Sugar, Everglades and Mosaic: continuity is the ask, and HB 167 is the live bill

Documented. DeSantis announced April 13, 2026 that the state would lead EAA Reservoir construction under an agreement with the Army Corps, with completion expected in 2029, and Florida Crystals publicly commended the deal, citing about $350 million paid by EAA farmers through the Agricultural Privilege Tax and more than 100,000 acres given up, per [WCTV](wctv.tv) and the [Florida Crystals release](streetinsider.com). In 2019 the Cabinet paid Florida Crystals' New Hope Sugar $2.4 million to end a 1,234-acre lease early, per [CBS12](cbs12.com). Everglades Trust endorsed Donalds the week of October 6, 2026 as "the only candidate who can maintain the momentum of Governor DeSantis," without mentioning sugar or the reservoir, per [The Floridian](floridianpress.com). Mosaic's HB 167, written by Mosaic, would replace strict liability with a negligence standard for radiation claims on former phosphate land; House Judiciary passed it in under 10 minutes in November 2025; Mosaic gave more than $500,000 to state candidates and committees in the first nine months of 2025 including more than $100,000 to a Senate GOP leadership committee, and about 50,000 Floridians live on former mine land, per [Florida Phoenix](floridaphoenix.com). The Miccosukee Tribe, which sued over Alligator Alcatraz, gave $10,000 to Donalds and $239,000 statewide and wants leaders "committed to restoring the Everglades," per [WLRN](wlrn.org).

Inference. Sugar's practical asks are continuity: no new land acquisition south of the lake, the 2019 lease deal as the last EAA taking, BMP-based regulation under the Everglades Forever Act, and a Lake Okeechobee schedule that stores rather than discharges. The Everglades Trust's "continuity" rationale aligns the environmental endorsement with the industry's own framing of the reservoir as finished business. HB 167's 2026 fate was not confirmed; if it failed it returns in 2027 to a governor whose committee took $200,000 from Mosaic.

What changes for Floridians. Estuary communities keep the discharge reductions already won; residents on former mine land would lose strict liability for radiation claims if HB 167 passes and is signed.

What Jolly would do instead. No Jolly position on sugar or the reservoir was found.

Crypto: a bitcoin reserve bill and a prediction market overlap, with Fairshake sitting out

Documented. The Winklevosses' $1 million to Donalds is a fragment of more than $32 million in 2025 Republican giving, including $21 million in bitcoin to their own Digital Freedom Fund and $10 million to MAGA Inc. on June 19, 2026, less than a month after the administration moved to vacate a Gemini enforcement action, per [Axios](axios.com) and [The Lever](levernews.com). Fairshake's affiliates spent about $2.2 million in Florida, mainly $2.06 million in a failed effort against Oliver Gilbert in FL-24, plus support for Patronis, Fine, Gruters, Frankel and Haridopolos, and nothing in the governor's race, per [Tech Influence Watch](influence.citationneeded.news). HB 1039 and SB 1038, the Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve bills by Snyder and Gruters, cleared the House Insurance and Banking Subcommittee 18 to 0 on February 11, 2026, with the reserve assigned to the State Board of Administration and eligible assets limited to those averaging $100 billion in market cap; no final passage was found, per the [House analysis](flsenate.gov) and [CoinDesk](coindesk.com). Robinhood's $200,000 came just over a month after Donalds and his wife sold Robinhood stock in March 2025, and co-founder Baiju Bhatt gave $50,000, per [Politico via NewsBreak](newsbreak.com).

Inference. Fairshake's absence from the governor's race suggests the industry views Donalds as safe and spends where outcomes are uncertain. The structural crypto ask of a Florida governor overlaps with the prediction market ask: non-enforcement. A bitcoin reserve signing is plausible if the bill reaches him, since he introduced a federal reserve bill, but no Donalds Florida crypto proposal was found.

What changes for Floridians. Possibly a slice of state funds in bitcoin, ether or Tether managed by the SBA, which also manages the pension; otherwise little that is visible.

What Jolly would do instead. No Jolly crypto position was found.

Trump world, operatives and DeSantis: a Koch-trained staff, a Trump treasurer, and an endorsement that ended a lobbyist freeze

Documented. Campaign manager Chris Hudson spent more than a decade at Americans for Prosperity and previously worked at the Foundation for Government Accountability, per [Florida Politics](floridapolitics.com); treasurer Bradley Crate of Red Curve, the compliance shop used by Trump's campaign and MAGA Inc., told the FEC in August 2025 that Donalds was "still an active candidate" for the House while running for governor, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). DeSantis endorsed the slate of Donalds, Uthmeier, Ingoglia and Simpson on September 2, 2026 after a year of trying to recruit a challenger, lobbying Griffin, and a Florida Fighters dark money group spending about $1.1 million on Collins ads, per [WLRN](wlrn.org) and [NBC News](nbcnews.com). A leaked Hope Florida grand jury report found taxpayer money was misused for political purposes in routing Medicaid settlement money to defeat the 2024 marijuana amendment, with testimony that Uthmeier directed it; Donalds called the findings "very concerning" and promised law changes but said it is not his focus, while Uthmeier called it a hoax, per [WLRN](wlrn.org). Uthmeier, who sells Alligator Alcatraz merchandise through his campaign store and received $500,000 from RPOF, $275,000 from CDR, $50,000 from GEO, $50,000 from the Seminole Tribe and $50,000 from Kalshi, is riding Donalds' bus tour alongside Moody, Judd, Simpson and Ingoglia, per [Florida Trib](floridatrib.org) and [WLRN](wlrn.org). No transition team, chief of staff or agency head has been reported in any source.

Inference. Hudson's AFP and FGA pedigree, the AFP Action endorsement and Erika's AFPI chair suggest a policy shop drawn from the Koch and Naples limited-government networks rather than the DeSantis executive office. The AG matters as much as the governor on three of the top four blocs: Uthmeier decides whether Florida joins suits against Kalshi, defends or abandons the compact in Protect the Constitution, and enforces any state AI law, and the Club for Growth's backing of both men aligns the executive and the AG on a deregulatory line. The DeSantis lobbyist freeze ended de facto on September 2, but no source names which donors moved.

What changes for Floridians. An executive aligned with the White House on AI preemption and immigration, an AG who shares donors with the governor across gambling, detention and prediction markets, and no reopening of Hope Florida unless the Legislature acts on its own.

What Jolly would do instead. Jolly wants the Legislature to adopt the grand jury recommendations immediately and would investigate as governor, per WLRN.

The governor's levers

Calendar of decisions, November 2026 through 2028

Conclusion

The second hop changes the picture in one important way: the blocs are not independent. The attorney general, who shares the Seminole Tribe, GEO, CDR and Kalshi as donors with the governor, decides whether Florida sues prediction markets, defends the compact and enforces any AI statute; the PSC that sets utility returns also decides who pays for the data centers the AI investors want built; the emergency fund that pays detention vendors is the same fund that pays for hurricanes; and the House Speaker whose committees gave $1 million wrote the property tax amendment the Realtors are spending $18 million to pass. A Donalds administration would therefore be less a series of favors to donors than a single governing coalition, Perez's House plus Uthmeier's office plus a Koch-trained executive staff, that has already set its 2027 agenda: Amendment 3 implementation and a follow-on cut, no ROE cap, no data center moratorium, no voucher controls, continued detention funding, and silence on the compact until a court forces the question.

The decision that will reveal the most is the one he has refused to discuss. Every other bloc got a stated position before Election Day. On gambling he took $5.5 million from the Tribe and more than $1 million from the prediction markets and sportsbooks suing or being sued by it, and said nothing. Whether his first FGCC appointment, his first amicus decision after the Supreme Court acts, and his response to the Broward case favor the Tribe or the exchanges will show whether the money bought access or bought an outcome, and it is a decision with a nine-figure annual revenue line attached to it.

What we could not verify

Researchers on all five second-hop tracks hit WebFetch quotas or proxy blocks, so several article bodies were never read and the facts drawn from them come from headlines, captions or secondary summaries. The exact current FGCC roster and seat expirations, and which PSC seats expire in 2027 to 2030, were not retrieved, so the count of seats Donalds would fill in a first term is unknown. The compact's text on reduction of revenue share if the state authorizes competing games was not retrieved; the 2010 precedent is the best available illustration. No Donalds statement on the compact, iGaming, prediction markets or the DraftKings suit was found, and no Jolly gambling policy was found. Whether Florida's AG signed the April 2026 Massachusetts amicus or the October 7, 2026 39-state brief could not be confirmed. The Deportation Depot contract's end date and renewal terms, the status of the environmental case after the April 30, 2026 remand, whether "Panhandle Pokey" advanced past concept, per vendor paid versus owed figures for Gothams, Longview, SLSCO, Garner and GardaWorld, and GEO's 2025 to 2026 Tallahassee lobbying spend were not found. The FPL settlement's ROE midpoint and intervenor signatories, SB 126's final fate, and SB 484's bill number as signed were not confirmed from primary documents. HB 167's 2026 outcome, the bitcoin reserve bills' final status, SB 280's 2024 veto and refiling, and the 2026 farmland and impact fee bill numbers were not confirmed. The Club for Growth Florida committee's registered name and receipts, Yass giving to individual Florida legislators, and School Freedom Fund spending in Florida legislative races were not retrieved. Claws Foundation grant schedules beyond those reported by Shomrim, Inside Philanthropy, JPost and Responsible Statecraft were not extracted, and the Haaretz 2021 evidence on Yass could not be reviewed. The DeVos, Fields, Wynn and Magowan contributions from the first report could not be re-sourced in this run, and the Peterffy $1.2 million versus $1 million reconciliation was not found. The remaining $2 million of Leading the Future's $5 million pledge was not traced. No transition team, chief of staff or agency head names have been reported. U.S. Sugar's 2026 giving and positions, Jolly's Everglades and sugar positions, and Jolly's alternative property tax plan were not retrieved.

Article bodies that were not read and that the user should open himself:

• Tampa Bay Times, Oct 2, 2026, gaming money analysis: summarized via Bonus.com; exact URL not captured, search tampabay.com for Oct 2, 2026
• Tampa Bay Times, Aug 11, 2026: tampabay.com
• Tampa Bay Times, June 15, 2026, Kalshi: tampabay.com
• Tampa Bay Times, July 24, 2026, Griffin: tampabay.com
• Gary Fineout on Kalshi's Florida giving: x.com
• The Real Deal, Oct 8, 2026, real estate donors: therealdeal.com
• Haaretz, March 24, 2024, Yass: haaretz.com
• NBC, Republicans block DeSantis AI push: nbcnews.com
• NBC, DeSantis team urged lobbyists not to back Donalds: nbcnews.com
• CNBC, Sept 25, 2025, Griffin on tariffs: cnbc.com
• WFLX, July 15, 2026, Alligator Alcatraz dismantled: wflx.com
• Action News Jax, Deportation Depot lowest price point: actionnewsjax.com
• Florida Phoenix, May 15 and May 29, 2026, first $58M reimbursement: floridaphoenix.com and floridaphoenix.com
• Florida Phoenix, $34M on tech at the Everglades lockup: floridaphoenix.com
• Miami New Times, FIU board chair's company: miaminewtimes.com
• Florida Trib and Prison Legal News on Critical Response Strategies: floridatrib.org and prisonlegalnews.org
• Seeking Rents, FPL settlement account: jasongarcia.substack.com
• Seeking Rents, data center donors: jasongarcia.substack.com
• PSC settlement filings: floridapsc.com and floridapsc.com
• WLRN, Oct 1, 2026, Project Tango land history: wlrn.org
• Florida Phoenix, June 23, 2026, Donalds and Jolly on utility profitability: floridaphoenix.com
• WPTV, Amendment 3 spending: wptv.com
• Florida Politics, Donalds "math" and fiscally constrained counties: floridapolitics.com and floridapolitics.com
• Florida Politics, Everglades Trust endorsement: floridapolitics.com
• Florida Politics, Perez $1M and 63 endorsements: floridapolitics.com and floridapolitics.com
• Florida Politics, Uihlein second $1M: floridapolitics.com
• PolitiFact, Sept 21, 2026, hurricane tax: politifact.com
• WLRN, Feb 19, 2026, private schools sue Step Up: wlrn.org
• Florida Phoenix, Aug 12, 2026, phosphogypsum road ruling: floridaphoenix.com
• NPR, June 22, 2026, AI PAC totals: not captured; search for OpenAI and Anthropic-linked PAC totals
• Floridian Press, "PAC funded by AI investor" and "Donalds Reaffirms Commitment to Repeal Homestead Property Taxes": URLs not captured
• Bradenton Times, out-of-state billionaire cash: thebradentontimes.com
• Transparency USA, Friends of Byron Donalds contributors page and Seminole Tribe donor page: not fetchable
• Yahoo and USA Today Network, "The complicated environmental legacy Florida's next governor stands to inherit": URL not captured
• Tampa Bay Times recommendation editorial, Oct 16, 2026: paywalled; which candidate it endorsed is not recorded here

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Columns: Donor or Entity, Type, Amount, Date or As Of, Recipient Vehicle, Interest Bloc, Source, Hop. Amounts are as reported; cumulative rows are labeled cumulative and should not be summed with their component rows.

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