2026 forecast
Michigan Senate forecast
Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers, an open seat. The model has El-Sayed ahead by 5.2 points, winning 84 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
83 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +11.9 and R +1.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +3.7 | |
| Quantus Insights | 762 LV | 3d | D +2.8 |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 600 LV | 4d | D +4.2 |
| YouGov | 3,949 LV | 5d | D +0.1 |
| Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit | 682 LV | 8d | D +3.9 |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D) | 483 RV | 8d | D +6.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,085 LV | 9d | D +3.2 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,028 LV | 11d | D +0.4 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,200 RV | 12d | D +4.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 678 LV | 15d | D +4.2 |
| co/efficient (R) | 843 LV | 16d | D +3.9 |
| GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 17d | D +2.5 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 613 LV | 17d | D +4.7 |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) | 600 LV | 18d | D +6.1 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 19d | D +5.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 22d | D +1.9 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 25d | D +3.3 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 803 LV | 25d | D +2.4 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,079 LV | 30d | D +2.4 |
| SSRS | 843 LV | 33d | D +2.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 36d | R +1.1 |
| Abacus Data | 332 LV | 42d | D +2.5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 42d | D +4.6 |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | 779 LV | 50d | D +4.1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | 800 LV | 53d | D +7.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | 877 LV | 59d | D +2.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | El-Sayed | Rogers |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 46.9 | 50.1 |
| Women | 54% | 54.7 | 42.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 54.5 | 42.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 50.7 | 46.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 48.5 | 48.6 |
| 65+ | 31% | 52.7 | 44.4 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 43.7 | 53.4 |
| Black | 12% | 86.5 | 10.7 |
| Latino | 3% | 64.8 | 32.3 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 72.9 | 23.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 38.0 | 59.1 |
| White women | 44% | 48.3 | 48.7 |
| Black men | 6% | 85.1 | 12.0 |
| Black women | 6% | 87.7 | 9.5 |
| Latino men | 2% | 61.8 | 35.3 |
| Latino women | 2% | 67.7 | 29.4 |
| All other races | 5% | 72.9 | 23.6 |