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SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 Republican primary

Texas Senate Republican primary average

Cornyn won the March 3, 2026 primary with 41.9 percent. The final OnPoint average of 40 public polls had Paxton ahead at 37.0 percent.

40 pollsLast poll Mar 2, 2026Primary Mar 3, 2026Result in

Average over time

Each dot is one poll
Paxton37.0Cornyn32.7Hunt17.6

The average against the result

Winner missed
CandidateAverageResultErrorAverage and result
Cornyn32.7%41.88%−9.2
Paxton37.0%40.69%−3.7
Hunt17.6%13.51%+4.1
WinnerCornyn
Mean absolute error5.7 pts
Result marginCornyn +1.20
Average marginPaxton +4.3

Bars show the result; the white tick marks the final average. More than 95% reporting. Results from official Texas election returns.

All polls

40 polls
PollsterEnd dateSamplePaxtonCornynHuntSpread
OnPoint averageMar 2, 202640 polls37.0%32.7%17.6%Paxton +4.3
Result More than 95% reportingMar 3, 20262,142,151 votes40.69%41.88%13.51%Cornyn +1.20
YouGovMar 2, 20262,000LV36%32%17%Paxton +4.0
EmersonFeb 27, 2026547LV40%36%17%Paxton +4.0
Quantus InsightsFeb 26, 2026939LV43%38%16%Paxton +5.0
Chism/BlueprintFeb 24, 2026472LV42%30%14%Paxton +12.0
Peak InsightsFeb 23, 2026800LV36%36%14%Paxton +0.0
University of TexasFeb 16, 2026350LV36%34%26%Paxton +2.0
Pulse Decision ScienceFeb 11, 2026800LV36%27%15%Paxton +9.0
Peak InsightsFeb 8, 20261,000LV31%29%25%Paxton +2.0
Pulse Decision ScienceFeb 3, 2026801LV34%26%18%Paxton +8.0
J.L. PartnersFeb 3, 2026600LV27%26%26%Paxton +1.0
Ragnar Research PartnersFeb 1, 2026n/aLV29%31%24%Cornyn +2.0
University of HoustonJan 31, 2026550LV38%31%17%Paxton +7.0
University of Houston/YouGovJan 31, 2026550LV38%31%17%Paxton +7.0
EmersonJan 12, 2026550LV27%26%16%Paxton +1.0
Deep Root AnalyticsJan 11, 2026n/aLV26%29%19%Cornyn +3.0