How the numbers are weighted
TPSI fields dual panel surveys and weights them with the DSMeridian likely voter model. OnPoint Politics averages add a Gold Standard upweight for a curated set of pollsters that meet criteria for consistency, transparency and real world accuracy.
How TPSI polls
DSMeridianEach sample is weighted to the registered population on the state voter file: age and gender always, race and education where the sample supports it, region where every mode carries geography.
DSMeridian scores every respondent on two parts, survey engagement and validated vote history, and turns the combined score into a probability of voting.
Respondents are segmented into Meridian coalitions by their voting behavior, the lens used to read primaries and crossover voters.
Expected turnout follows from the fitted likely voter curve, bounded by the voter file, past turnout in the same kind of election and early ballots cast.
Accuracy
ACC- Repeatable performance across electoral environments
- Stable, trackable readings suitable for time series modeling
- No extreme methodological drift without disclosure
Transparency
TRN- Field dates and sample size published
- Defined universe (A/RV/LV) and mode when available
- Sponsor disclosure or full release notes when applicable
Standards
STD- Clear toplines and consistent formatting across releases
- Question wording consistency preferred for trackers
- Auditable, public facing or verifiable releases