SearchThe Weighting Room
25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 Democratic primary

Texas Senate Democratic primary average

Talarico won the March 3, 2026 primary with 52.5 percent. The final OnPoint average of 13 public polls had Talarico ahead at 46.9 percent.

13 pollsLast poll Mar 2, 2026Primary Mar 3, 2026Result in

Average over time

Each dot is one poll
Talarico46.9Crockett44.5Hassan0.3

The average against the result

Winner called
CandidateAverageResultErrorAverage and result
Talarico46.9%52.45%−5.6
Crockett44.5%46.22%−1.7
Hassan0.3%1.34%−1.0
WinnerTalarico
Mean absolute error2.8 pts
Result marginTalarico +6.20
Average marginTalarico +2.4

Bars show the result; the white tick marks the final average. More than 95% reporting. Results from official Texas election returns.

All polls

13 polls
PollsterEnd dateSampleTalaricoCrockettHassanSpread
OnPoint averageMar 2, 202613 polls46.9%44.5%0.3%Talarico +2.4
Result More than 95% reportingMar 3, 20262,309,696 votes52.45%46.22%1.34%Talarico +6.20
YouGovMar 2, 20262,400LV53%40%Talarico +13.0
EmersonFeb 27, 2026850LV52%47%1%Talarico +5.0
Public Policy PollingFeb 25, 2026599LV48%42%Talarico +6.0
Chism/BlueprintFeb 24, 2026472LV52%40%Talarico +12.0
University of Texas / Texas Politics ProjectFeb 16, 2026369RV44%56%Crockett +12.0
Impact ResearchFeb 12, 2026800LV47%43%Talarico +4.0
University of HoustonJan 31, 2026550LV39%47%2%Crockett +8.0
TPORJan 21, 20261,290LV37%38%Crockett +1.0
HIT StrategiesJan 15, 20261,005LV33%46%Crockett +13.0
EmersonJan 12, 2026413LV47%38%1%Talarico +9.0
TSUDec 11, 20251,600LV43%51%Crockett +8.0
U. of Houston/TSUOct 1, 2025478RV34%52%Crockett +18.0
TPORAug 29, 2025267RV27%26%Talarico +1.0