2026 forecast · Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8
Brett Busby is favored to win Texas's justice, supreme court, place 8 race.
Gisela Triana vs Brett Busby, with Brett Busby running again. The model has Busby ahead by 4.5 points, with a 80 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +4.5Polls R +15.6Updated October 22, 2026
Gisela Triana
Democrat
46.2%
4,624,107 projected votes
Brett Busby
Republican
50.8%
5,077,407 projected votes
80%Busby
20%Triana
Busby favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Busby wins about 80 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Triana +1,233,242 net votes from 22 countiesStatewide R +4.5, a 453,293 vote marginBusby +1,686,535 net votes from 232 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Busby R | 5,077,407 | 50.8% |
| Gisela Triana D | 4,624,107 | 46.2% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Triana | Busby | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,624,112 | 5,077,405 | 297,399 | 9,998,916 | R +4.5 |
| Harris County | 796,189 | 546,989 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +18.0 |
| Dallas County | 520,973 | 234,028 | 23,145 | 778,146 | D +36.9 |
| Tarrant County | 359,118 | 339,827 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +2.7 |
| Bexar County | 411,049 | 253,575 | 20,375 | 684,999 | D +23.0 |
| Travis County | 416,227 | 118,340 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +54.1 |
| Collin County | 206,229 | 218,935 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +2.9 |
| Denton County | 169,802 | 199,623 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +7.8 |
| Fort Bend County | 164,768 | 133,118 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +10.3 |
| Williamson County | 137,213 | 121,147 | 7,921 | 266,281 | D +6.0 |
| Montgomery County | 66,252 | 179,164 | 7,522 | 252,938 | R +44.6 |
| El Paso County | 152,659 | 72,656 | 6,907 | 232,222 | D +34.5 |
| Hidalgo County | 114,325 | 75,580 | 5,821 | 195,726 | D +19.8 |
| Brazoria County | 52,634 | 79,045 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +19.5 |
| Galveston County | 49,680 | 81,197 | 4,013 | 134,890 | R +23.4 |
| Bell County | 49,368 | 61,911 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +10.9 |
| Nueces County | 53,010 | 56,217 | 3,348 | 112,575 | R +2.9 |
| Hays County | 61,400 | 45,011 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +14.9 |
| Lubbock County | 33,465 | 72,001 | 3,232 | 108,698 | R +35.5 |
| Cameron County | 58,363 | 44,515 | 3,153 | 106,031 | D +13.1 |
| Smith County | 23,497 | 63,881 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +44.8 |
| McLennan County | 30,990 | 55,102 | 2,638 | 88,730 | R +27.2 |
| Comal County | 22,832 | 61,005 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +44.2 |
| Ellis County | 24,921 | 53,800 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +35.6 |
| Brazos County | 32,721 | 45,679 | 2,402 | 80,802 | R +16.0 |
| Jefferson County | 36,039 | 38,648 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +3.4 |
| Parker County | 11,412 | 60,277 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +66.1 |
| Guadalupe County | 24,571 | 43,599 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +27.1 |
| Johnson County | 15,470 | 50,619 | 2,027 | 68,116 | R +51.6 |
| Webb County | 36,981 | 21,399 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +25.9 |
| Randall County | 10,873 | 44,777 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +59.1 |
| Kaufman County | 17,576 | 36,263 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +33.7 |
| Grayson County | 11,507 | 41,259 | 1,618 | 54,384 | R +54.7 |
| Rockwall County | 14,133 | 35,469 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +41.7 |
| Midland County | 9,612 | 39,757 | 1,514 | 50,883 | R +59.2 |
| Taylor County | 11,887 | 35,665 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +48.5 |
| Gregg County | 11,249 | 28,230 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +41.7 |
| Wichita County | 11,796 | 27,252 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +38.4 |
| Tom Green County | 10,374 | 28,365 | 1,188 | 39,927 | R +45.1 |
| Hunt County | 7,596 | 29,692 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +57.5 |
| Ector County | 8,524 | 26,429 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +49.7 |
| Bastrop County | 14,848 | 19,333 | 1,047 | 35,228 | R +12.7 |
| Henderson County | 5,498 | 26,911 | 993 | 33,402 | R +64.1 |
| Bowie County | 8,380 | 22,949 | 961 | 32,290 | R +45.1 |
| Hood County | 5,193 | 24,989 | 925 | 31,107 | R +63.6 |
| Victoria County | 8,544 | 21,391 | 918 | 30,853 | R +41.6 |
| Orange County | 4,684 | 25,109 | 913 | 30,706 | R +66.5 |
| Wise County | 4,012 | 25,732 | 912 | 30,656 | R +70.8 |
| Angelina County | 7,005 | 21,875 | 886 | 29,766 | R +50.0 |
| Potter County | 8,489 | 20,161 | 878 | 29,528 | R +39.5 |
| Liberty County | 4,507 | 21,045 | 783 | 26,335 | R +62.8 |
| Harrison County | 5,943 | 18,930 | 763 | 25,636 | R +50.7 |
| Kerr County | 5,383 | 18,969 | 747 | 25,099 | R +54.1 |
| Kendall County | 4,928 | 19,145 | 738 | 24,811 | R +57.3 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,758 | 20,795 | 722 | 24,275 | R +74.3 |
| Walker County | 7,216 | 16,251 | 719 | 24,186 | R +37.4 |
| Burnet County | 5,075 | 18,124 | 711 | 23,910 | R +54.6 |
| Hardin County | 2,586 | 20,196 | 698 | 23,480 | R +75.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 6,831 | 15,248 | 676 | 22,755 | R +37.0 |
| Coryell County | 6,758 | 15,260 | 676 | 22,694 | R +37.5 |
| Wilson County | 5,087 | 16,800 | 671 | 22,558 | R +51.9 |
| San Patricio County | 7,385 | 14,260 | 664 | 22,309 | R +30.8 |
| Waller County | 7,423 | 13,512 | 641 | 21,576 | R +28.2 |
| Wood County | 2,777 | 17,679 | 627 | 21,083 | R +70.7 |
| Medina County | 5,636 | 14,560 | 619 | 20,815 | R +42.9 |
| Polk County | 3,996 | 15,789 | 607 | 20,392 | R +57.8 |
| Chambers County | 3,016 | 15,810 | 578 | 19,404 | R +65.9 |
| Rusk County | 3,525 | 14,777 | 561 | 18,863 | R +59.6 |
| Lamar County | 3,419 | 14,614 | 553 | 18,586 | R +60.2 |
| Anderson County | 3,322 | 14,345 | 541 | 18,208 | R +60.5 |
| Cherokee County | 3,015 | 14,143 | 526 | 17,684 | R +62.9 |
| Cooke County | 2,516 | 14,447 | 519 | 17,482 | R +68.2 |
| Navarro County | 3,926 | 12,778 | 512 | 17,216 | R +51.4 |
| Upshur County | 2,273 | 14,043 | 500 | 16,816 | R +70.0 |
| Erath County | 2,485 | 13,121 | 478 | 16,084 | R +66.1 |
| Washington County | 3,222 | 12,216 | 473 | 15,911 | R +56.5 |
| Atascosa County | 4,625 | 10,728 | 471 | 15,824 | R +38.6 |
| Brown County | 1,733 | 12,619 | 440 | 14,792 | R +73.6 |
| Caldwell County | 6,557 | 7,533 | 432 | 14,522 | R +6.7 |
| Gillespie County | 2,621 | 11,427 | 431 | 14,479 | R +60.8 |
| Wharton County | 3,406 | 10,605 | 429 | 14,440 | R +49.9 |
| Starr County | 8,297 | 5,629 | 428 | 14,354 | D +18.6 |
| Hopkins County | 2,569 | 11,284 | 425 | 14,278 | R +61.0 |
| Fannin County | 2,030 | 11,566 | 416 | 14,012 | R +68.0 |
| Hill County | 2,309 | 11,271 | 416 | 13,996 | R +64.0 |
| Jasper County | 2,004 | 10,934 | 396 | 13,334 | R +67.0 |
| Maverick County | 7,197 | 5,597 | 392 | 13,186 | D +12.1 |
| Austin County | 2,168 | 10,384 | 385 | 12,937 | R +63.5 |
| Val Verde County | 5,418 | 6,997 | 381 | 12,796 | R +12.3 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,571 | 6,149 | 360 | 12,080 | R +4.8 |
| Llano County | 2,204 | 9,497 | 359 | 12,060 | R +60.5 |
| Cass County | 1,883 | 9,662 | 355 | 11,900 | R +65.4 |
| Matagorda County | 2,845 | 8,584 | 349 | 11,778 | R +48.7 |
| Grimes County | 2,026 | 9,312 | 348 | 11,686 | R +62.4 |
| Fayette County | 2,032 | 9,276 | 346 | 11,654 | R +62.2 |
| Bandera County | 1,983 | 9,255 | 344 | 11,582 | R +62.8 |
| Aransas County | 2,288 | 8,736 | 337 | 11,361 | R +56.8 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,596 | 9,373 | 336 | 11,305 | R +68.8 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,889 | 8,890 | 331 | 11,110 | R +63.0 |
| Milam County | 2,059 | 7,394 | 289 | 9,742 | R +54.8 |
| Lampasas County | 1,779 | 7,551 | 286 | 9,616 | R +60.0 |
| Panola County | 1,469 | 7,858 | 286 | 9,613 | R +66.5 |
| Kleberg County | 4,476 | 4,800 | 284 | 9,560 | R +3.4 |
| Montague County | 879 | 8,056 | 274 | 9,209 | R +77.9 |
| Lavaca County | 986 | 7,863 | 271 | 9,120 | R +75.4 |
| Titus County | 1,877 | 6,802 | 267 | 8,946 | R +55.0 |
| Uvalde County | 3,260 | 5,322 | 262 | 8,844 | R +23.3 |
| Howard County | 1,676 | 6,759 | 259 | 8,694 | R +58.5 |
| Bee County | 2,749 | 5,627 | 257 | 8,633 | R +33.3 |
| Colorado County | 1,699 | 6,654 | 256 | 8,609 | R +57.6 |
| Hale County | 1,665 | 6,544 | 252 | 8,461 | R +57.7 |
| Shelby County | 1,386 | 6,813 | 251 | 8,450 | R +64.2 |
| Houston County | 1,710 | 6,422 | 250 | 8,382 | R +56.2 |
| Tyler County | 1,013 | 7,117 | 249 | 8,379 | R +72.8 |
| Bosque County | 1,302 | 6,767 | 247 | 8,316 | R +65.7 |
| Limestone County | 1,702 | 6,092 | 239 | 8,033 | R +54.7 |
| Burleson County | 1,250 | 6,355 | 233 | 7,838 | R +65.1 |
| Freestone County | 1,167 | 6,384 | 232 | 7,783 | R +67.0 |
| Leon County | 708 | 6,705 | 227 | 7,640 | R +78.5 |
| Lee County | 1,310 | 5,720 | 216 | 7,246 | R +60.9 |
| Eastland County | 764 | 6,243 | 215 | 7,222 | R +75.9 |
| Young County | 768 | 6,221 | 215 | 7,204 | R +75.7 |
| Hutchinson County | 685 | 6,299 | 214 | 7,198 | R +78.0 |
| Blanco County | 1,593 | 5,297 | 212 | 7,102 | R +52.1 |
| DeWitt County | 1,130 | 5,737 | 211 | 7,078 | R +65.1 |
| Robertson County | 1,648 | 5,071 | 206 | 6,925 | R +49.4 |
| Calhoun County | 1,648 | 5,012 | 204 | 6,864 | R +49.0 |
| Hockley County | 1,083 | 5,555 | 204 | 6,842 | R +65.4 |
| Gray County | 589 | 5,986 | 202 | 6,777 | R +79.7 |
| Gonzales County | 1,363 | 5,061 | 197 | 6,621 | R +55.8 |
| Jones County | 838 | 5,420 | 192 | 6,450 | R +71.0 |
| Trinity County | 988 | 5,093 | 187 | 6,268 | R +65.5 |
| Callahan County | 575 | 5,316 | 180 | 6,071 | R +78.1 |
| Falls County | 1,508 | 4,042 | 170 | 5,720 | R +44.3 |
| Rains County | 695 | 4,820 | 169 | 5,684 | R +72.6 |
| Comanche County | 674 | 4,743 | 166 | 5,583 | R +72.9 |
| Jackson County | 755 | 4,599 | 164 | 5,518 | R +69.7 |
| Willacy County | 3,006 | 2,180 | 159 | 5,345 | D +15.4 |
| Gaines County | 382 | 4,627 | 153 | 5,162 | R +82.2 |
| Scurry County | 605 | 4,340 | 152 | 5,097 | R +73.3 |
| Clay County | 487 | 4,413 | 151 | 5,051 | R +77.7 |
| Newton County | 833 | 4,046 | 151 | 5,030 | R +63.9 |
| Andrews County | 611 | 4,239 | 149 | 4,999 | R +72.6 |
| Red River County | 920 | 3,872 | 148 | 4,940 | R +59.8 |
| Sabine County | 474 | 4,216 | 144 | 4,834 | R +77.4 |
| Karnes County | 1,030 | 3,581 | 141 | 4,752 | R +53.7 |
| Frio County | 2,267 | 2,323 | 140 | 4,730 | R +1.2 |
| Madison County | 788 | 3,800 | 141 | 4,729 | R +63.7 |
| Morris County | 1,124 | 3,401 | 139 | 4,664 | R +48.8 |
| Nolan County | 867 | 3,636 | 138 | 4,641 | R +59.7 |
| Moore County | 711 | 3,761 | 137 | 4,609 | R +66.2 |
| Camp County | 994 | 3,438 | 136 | 4,568 | R +53.5 |
| Franklin County | 640 | 3,752 | 134 | 4,526 | R +68.8 |
| Live Oak County | 635 | 3,717 | 133 | 4,485 | R +68.7 |
| Somervell County | 673 | 3,671 | 132 | 4,476 | R +67.0 |
| Archer County | 383 | 3,795 | 128 | 4,306 | R +79.2 |
| Brewster County | 2,057 | 2,063 | 126 | 4,246 | R +0.2 |
| Pecos County | 1,239 | 2,802 | 123 | 4,164 | R +37.5 |
| Wilbarger County | 751 | 3,162 | 119 | 4,032 | R +59.8 |
| Zapata County | 2,104 | 1,799 | 119 | 4,022 | D +7.6 |
| Marion County | 932 | 2,966 | 119 | 4,017 | R +50.6 |
| Deaf Smith County | 903 | 2,934 | 117 | 3,954 | R +51.4 |
| Duval County | 2,237 | 1,584 | 117 | 3,938 | D +16.6 |
| Hamilton County | 522 | 3,207 | 115 | 3,844 | R +69.8 |
| Lamb County | 606 | 2,985 | 110 | 3,701 | R +64.3 |
| Runnels County | 369 | 3,182 | 109 | 3,660 | R +76.9 |
| Coleman County | 337 | 3,163 | 108 | 3,608 | R +78.3 |
| Goliad County | 694 | 2,728 | 104 | 3,526 | R +57.7 |
| Jack County | 266 | 3,147 | 105 | 3,518 | R +81.9 |
| Stephens County | 260 | 2,992 | 99 | 3,351 | R +81.5 |
| San Augustine County | 684 | 2,515 | 97 | 3,296 | R +55.5 |
| Dawson County | 600 | 2,524 | 96 | 3,220 | R +59.8 |
| Ward County | 556 | 2,513 | 93 | 3,162 | R +61.9 |
| Terry County | 519 | 2,529 | 94 | 3,142 | R +64.0 |
| Dimmit County | 1,947 | 1,084 | 93 | 3,124 | D +27.6 |
| Zavala County | 2,064 | 912 | 92 | 3,068 | D +37.6 |
| McCulloch County | 381 | 2,535 | 90 | 3,006 | R +71.7 |
| Reeves County | 1,234 | 1,681 | 90 | 3,005 | R +14.9 |
| Carson County | 230 | 2,376 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.9 |
| Refugio County | 777 | 1,809 | 79 | 2,665 | R +38.7 |
| Ochiltree County | 212 | 2,291 | 77 | 2,580 | R +80.6 |
| Mitchell County | 305 | 2,046 | 73 | 2,424 | R +71.8 |
| San Saba County | 221 | 2,114 | 72 | 2,407 | R +78.7 |
| Brooks County | 1,490 | 793 | 69 | 2,352 | D +29.6 |
| Mills County | 212 | 2,031 | 69 | 2,312 | R +78.7 |
| Parmer County | 302 | 1,909 | 68 | 2,279 | R +70.5 |
| Delta County | 335 | 1,853 | 66 | 2,254 | R +67.3 |
| Mason County | 373 | 1,755 | 66 | 2,194 | R +63.0 |
| Childress County | 224 | 1,812 | 62 | 2,098 | R +75.7 |
| Kimble County | 217 | 1,814 | 62 | 2,093 | R +76.3 |
| Lynn County | 291 | 1,735 | 62 | 2,088 | R +69.2 |
| Swisher County | 384 | 1,628 | 62 | 2,074 | R +60.0 |
| Haskell County | 278 | 1,686 | 60 | 2,024 | R +69.6 |
| Yoakum County | 260 | 1,700 | 61 | 2,021 | R +71.3 |
| La Salle County | 931 | 1,014 | 60 | 2,005 | R +4.2 |
| Wheeler County | 140 | 1,749 | 57 | 1,946 | R +82.7 |
| Presidio County | 1,382 | 458 | 56 | 1,896 | D +48.8 |
| Castro County | 351 | 1,444 | 56 | 1,851 | R +59.0 |
| Hartley County | 149 | 1,625 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.7 |
| Floyd County | 283 | 1,408 | 53 | 1,744 | R +64.5 |
| Hansford County | 118 | 1,574 | 52 | 1,744 | R +83.5 |
| Winkler County | 260 | 1,424 | 52 | 1,736 | R +67.1 |
| Martin County | 203 | 1,475 | 52 | 1,730 | R +73.6 |
| Bailey County | 301 | 1,323 | 50 | 1,674 | R +61.0 |
| Crosby County | 385 | 1,160 | 47 | 1,592 | R +48.6 |
| Jim Hogg County | 999 | 525 | 46 | 1,570 | D +30.2 |
| Real County | 214 | 1,305 | 46 | 1,565 | R +69.7 |
| Fisher County | 265 | 1,245 | 46 | 1,556 | R +63.0 |
| Coke County | 143 | 1,365 | 46 | 1,554 | R +78.6 |
| Baylor County | 146 | 1,298 | 44 | 1,488 | R +77.4 |
| Garza County | 207 | 1,231 | 44 | 1,482 | R +69.1 |
| Shackelford County | 114 | 1,287 | 43 | 1,444 | R +81.2 |
| Hemphill County | 162 | 1,232 | 42 | 1,436 | R +74.5 |
| Donley County | 133 | 1,245 | 42 | 1,420 | R +78.3 |
| Dallam County | 141 | 1,197 | 41 | 1,379 | R +76.6 |
| Kinney County | 320 | 937 | 39 | 1,296 | R +47.6 |
| Crockett County | 294 | 919 | 37 | 1,250 | R +50.0 |
| Crane County | 168 | 1,032 | 37 | 1,237 | R +69.8 |
| Sutton County | 206 | 987 | 37 | 1,230 | R +63.5 |
| Hardeman County | 158 | 1,020 | 36 | 1,214 | R +70.9 |
| Knox County | 178 | 965 | 35 | 1,178 | R +66.8 |
| Upton County | 129 | 977 | 34 | 1,140 | R +74.5 |
| Concho County | 154 | 935 | 33 | 1,122 | R +69.7 |
| Lipscomb County | 93 | 955 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.9 |
| Jeff Davis County | 421 | 601 | 30 | 1,052 | R +17.1 |
| Collingsworth County | 110 | 887 | 31 | 1,028 | R +75.6 |
| Hall County | 125 | 870 | 30 | 1,025 | R +72.7 |
| Schleicher County | 177 | 803 | 30 | 1,010 | R +61.9 |
| Armstrong County | 66 | 866 | 28 | 960 | R +83.3 |
| Hudspeth County | 291 | 625 | 28 | 944 | R +35.4 |
| Menard County | 135 | 711 | 26 | 872 | R +66.1 |
| Dickens County | 112 | 702 | 25 | 839 | R +70.4 |
| Oldham County | 65 | 731 | 24 | 820 | R +81.3 |
| Reagan County | 120 | 675 | 25 | 820 | R +67.7 |
| Sherman County | 57 | 732 | 25 | 814 | R +82.9 |
| Throckmorton County | 60 | 674 | 22 | 756 | R +81.1 |
| Culberson County | 340 | 374 | 22 | 736 | R +4.7 |
| Cochran County | 117 | 596 | 22 | 735 | R +65.3 |
| Irion County | 80 | 605 | 21 | 706 | R +74.3 |
| Edwards County | 81 | 558 | 19 | 658 | R +72.5 |
| Briscoe County | 47 | 565 | 18 | 630 | R +82.2 |
| Stonewall County | 88 | 492 | 18 | 598 | R +67.5 |
| Motley County | 33 | 522 | 17 | 572 | R +85.6 |
| Cottle County | 76 | 473 | 17 | 566 | R +70.2 |
| Glasscock County | 30 | 503 | 16 | 549 | R +86.1 |
| Sterling County | 30 | 462 | 14 | 506 | R +85.3 |
| Foard County | 87 | 402 | 15 | 504 | R +62.5 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +92.0 |
| Terrell County | 93 | 282 | 11 | 386 | R +48.9 |
| Kent County | 38 | 326 | 12 | 376 | R +76.6 |
| Borden County | 16 | 296 | 10 | 322 | R +87.0 |
| McMullen County | 23 | 241 | 8 | 272 | R +80.2 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.4 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 43 | 1 | 66 | R +31.4 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +75.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.2 and R +11.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.1 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +4.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.2 and R +11.3.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Triana | Busby | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 42.2 | 57.8 | R +15.6 |