2026 forecast · Texas Chief Justice, Supreme Court
Jimmy Blacklock is favored to win Texas's chief justice, supreme court race.
Maggie Ellis vs Jimmy Blacklock, with Jimmy Blacklock running again. The model has Blacklock ahead by 3.9 points, with a 77 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.9Polls R +12.2Updated October 22, 2026
Maggie Ellis
Democrat
46.6%
4,656,164 projected votes
Jimmy Blacklock
Republican
50.5%
5,045,349 projected votes
77%Blacklock
23%Ellis
Blacklock favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Blacklock wins about 77 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ellis +1,269,164 net votes from 23 countiesStatewide R +3.9, a 389,185 vote marginBlacklock +1,658,349 net votes from 231 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Blacklock R | 5,045,349 | 50.5% |
| Maggie Ellis D | 4,656,164 | 46.6% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Ellis | Blacklock | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,656,166 | 5,045,351 | 297,399 | 9,998,916 | R +3.9 |
| Harris County | 800,954 | 542,224 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +18.7 |
| Dallas County | 523,301 | 231,699 | 23,146 | 778,146 | D +37.5 |
| Tarrant County | 361,751 | 337,194 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +3.4 |
| Bexar County | 413,352 | 251,273 | 20,374 | 684,999 | D +23.7 |
| Travis County | 417,567 | 117,001 | 16,387 | 550,955 | D +54.5 |
| Collin County | 207,856 | 217,308 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +2.2 |
| Denton County | 171,215 | 198,210 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +7.1 |
| Fort Bend County | 165,873 | 132,013 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +11.0 |
| Williamson County | 138,185 | 120,176 | 7,920 | 266,281 | D +6.8 |
| Montgomery County | 67,054 | 178,361 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +44.0 |
| El Paso County | 153,364 | 71,950 | 6,908 | 232,222 | D +35.1 |
| Hidalgo County | 114,986 | 74,918 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +20.5 |
| Brazoria County | 53,127 | 78,552 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +18.7 |
| Galveston County | 50,170 | 80,707 | 4,013 | 134,890 | R +22.6 |
| Bell County | 49,788 | 61,491 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +10.2 |
| Nueces County | 53,421 | 55,805 | 3,349 | 112,575 | R +2.1 |
| Hays County | 61,787 | 44,624 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +15.7 |
| Lubbock County | 33,833 | 71,632 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +34.8 |
| Cameron County | 58,735 | 44,142 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +13.8 |
| Smith County | 23,779 | 63,599 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +44.2 |
| McLennan County | 31,302 | 54,790 | 2,638 | 88,730 | R +26.5 |
| Comal County | 23,110 | 60,726 | 2,571 | 86,407 | R +43.5 |
| Ellis County | 25,196 | 53,526 | 2,412 | 81,134 | R +34.9 |
| Brazos County | 33,016 | 45,383 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +15.3 |
| Jefferson County | 36,321 | 38,366 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +2.7 |
| Parker County | 11,581 | 60,108 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +65.7 |
| Guadalupe County | 24,823 | 43,347 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +26.4 |
| Johnson County | 15,667 | 50,423 | 2,026 | 68,116 | R +51.0 |
| Webb County | 37,177 | 21,203 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +26.6 |
| Randall County | 11,022 | 44,628 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +58.6 |
| Kaufman County | 17,765 | 36,074 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +33.0 |
| Grayson County | 11,659 | 41,108 | 1,617 | 54,384 | R +54.1 |
| Rockwall County | 14,300 | 35,302 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +41.1 |
| Midland County | 9,744 | 39,626 | 1,513 | 50,883 | R +58.7 |
| Taylor County | 12,033 | 35,519 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +47.9 |
| Gregg County | 11,379 | 28,100 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +41.1 |
| Wichita County | 11,927 | 27,121 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +37.8 |
| Tom Green County | 10,499 | 28,241 | 1,187 | 39,927 | R +44.4 |
| Hunt County | 7,698 | 29,590 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +57.0 |
| Ector County | 8,630 | 26,323 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +49.1 |
| Bastrop County | 14,977 | 19,203 | 1,048 | 35,228 | R +12.0 |
| Henderson County | 5,576 | 26,833 | 993 | 33,402 | R +63.6 |
| Bowie County | 8,481 | 22,848 | 961 | 32,290 | R +44.5 |
| Hood County | 5,268 | 24,914 | 925 | 31,107 | R +63.2 |
| Victoria County | 8,644 | 21,292 | 917 | 30,853 | R +41.0 |
| Orange County | 4,752 | 25,041 | 913 | 30,706 | R +66.1 |
| Wise County | 4,074 | 25,670 | 912 | 30,656 | R +70.5 |
| Angelina County | 7,093 | 21,788 | 885 | 29,766 | R +49.4 |
| Potter County | 8,583 | 20,066 | 879 | 29,528 | R +38.9 |
| Liberty County | 4,569 | 20,983 | 783 | 26,335 | R +62.3 |
| Harrison County | 6,019 | 18,855 | 762 | 25,636 | R +50.1 |
| Kerr County | 5,453 | 18,899 | 747 | 25,099 | R +53.6 |
| Kendall County | 4,995 | 19,078 | 738 | 24,811 | R +56.8 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,801 | 20,752 | 722 | 24,275 | R +74.0 |
| Walker County | 7,293 | 16,173 | 720 | 24,186 | R +36.7 |
| Burnet County | 5,142 | 18,057 | 711 | 23,910 | R +54.0 |
| Hardin County | 2,627 | 20,155 | 698 | 23,480 | R +74.7 |
| Nacogdoches County | 6,906 | 15,172 | 677 | 22,755 | R +36.3 |
| Coryell County | 6,831 | 15,188 | 675 | 22,694 | R +36.8 |
| Wilson County | 5,154 | 16,734 | 670 | 22,558 | R +51.3 |
| San Patricio County | 7,463 | 14,183 | 663 | 22,309 | R +30.1 |
| Waller County | 7,499 | 13,435 | 642 | 21,576 | R +27.5 |
| Wood County | 2,819 | 17,637 | 627 | 21,083 | R +70.3 |
| Medina County | 5,703 | 14,493 | 619 | 20,815 | R +42.2 |
| Polk County | 4,050 | 15,735 | 607 | 20,392 | R +57.3 |
| Chambers County | 3,061 | 15,765 | 578 | 19,404 | R +65.5 |
| Rusk County | 3,573 | 14,729 | 561 | 18,863 | R +59.1 |
| Lamar County | 3,466 | 14,567 | 553 | 18,586 | R +59.7 |
| Anderson County | 3,366 | 14,301 | 541 | 18,208 | R +60.0 |
| Cherokee County | 3,057 | 14,100 | 527 | 17,684 | R +62.5 |
| Cooke County | 2,553 | 14,410 | 519 | 17,482 | R +67.8 |
| Navarro County | 3,975 | 12,728 | 513 | 17,216 | R +50.9 |
| Upshur County | 2,307 | 14,009 | 500 | 16,816 | R +69.6 |
| Erath County | 2,521 | 13,085 | 478 | 16,084 | R +65.7 |
| Washington County | 3,265 | 12,173 | 473 | 15,911 | R +56.0 |
| Atascosa County | 4,678 | 10,675 | 471 | 15,824 | R +37.9 |
| Brown County | 1,759 | 12,593 | 440 | 14,792 | R +73.2 |
| Caldwell County | 6,610 | 7,480 | 432 | 14,522 | R +6.0 |
| Gillespie County | 2,658 | 11,390 | 431 | 14,479 | R +60.3 |
| Wharton County | 3,449 | 10,562 | 429 | 14,440 | R +49.3 |
| Starr County | 8,347 | 5,580 | 427 | 14,354 | D +19.3 |
| Hopkins County | 2,605 | 11,248 | 425 | 14,278 | R +60.5 |
| Fannin County | 2,060 | 11,536 | 416 | 14,012 | R +67.6 |
| Hill County | 2,342 | 11,237 | 417 | 13,996 | R +63.6 |
| Jasper County | 2,033 | 10,904 | 397 | 13,334 | R +66.5 |
| Maverick County | 7,244 | 5,550 | 392 | 13,186 | D +12.8 |
| Austin County | 2,199 | 10,353 | 385 | 12,937 | R +63.0 |
| Val Verde County | 5,466 | 6,950 | 380 | 12,796 | R +11.6 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,615 | 6,105 | 360 | 12,080 | R +4.0 |
| Llano County | 2,235 | 9,467 | 358 | 12,060 | R +60.0 |
| Cass County | 1,911 | 9,635 | 354 | 11,900 | R +64.9 |
| Matagorda County | 2,880 | 8,548 | 350 | 11,778 | R +48.1 |
| Grimes County | 2,055 | 9,283 | 348 | 11,686 | R +61.9 |
| Fayette County | 2,060 | 9,247 | 347 | 11,654 | R +61.7 |
| Bandera County | 2,011 | 9,226 | 345 | 11,582 | R +62.3 |
| Aransas County | 2,318 | 8,705 | 338 | 11,361 | R +56.2 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,619 | 9,349 | 337 | 11,305 | R +68.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,916 | 8,863 | 331 | 11,110 | R +62.5 |
| Milam County | 2,086 | 7,367 | 289 | 9,742 | R +54.2 |
| Lampasas County | 1,803 | 7,527 | 286 | 9,616 | R +59.5 |
| Panola County | 1,491 | 7,836 | 286 | 9,613 | R +66.0 |
| Kleberg County | 4,510 | 4,766 | 284 | 9,560 | R +2.7 |
| Montague County | 894 | 8,042 | 273 | 9,209 | R +77.6 |
| Lavaca County | 1,002 | 7,847 | 271 | 9,120 | R +75.1 |
| Titus County | 1,902 | 6,778 | 266 | 8,946 | R +54.5 |
| Uvalde County | 3,291 | 5,290 | 263 | 8,844 | R +22.6 |
| Howard County | 1,699 | 6,737 | 258 | 8,694 | R +58.0 |
| Bee County | 2,777 | 5,599 | 257 | 8,633 | R +32.7 |
| Colorado County | 1,722 | 6,631 | 256 | 8,609 | R +57.0 |
| Hale County | 1,687 | 6,522 | 252 | 8,461 | R +57.1 |
| Shelby County | 1,406 | 6,793 | 251 | 8,450 | R +63.7 |
| Houston County | 1,733 | 6,400 | 249 | 8,382 | R +55.7 |
| Tyler County | 1,028 | 7,101 | 250 | 8,379 | R +72.5 |
| Bosque County | 1,321 | 6,748 | 247 | 8,316 | R +65.3 |
| Limestone County | 1,724 | 6,070 | 239 | 8,033 | R +54.1 |
| Burleson County | 1,268 | 6,337 | 233 | 7,838 | R +64.7 |
| Freestone County | 1,184 | 6,367 | 232 | 7,783 | R +66.6 |
| Leon County | 719 | 6,693 | 228 | 7,640 | R +78.2 |
| Lee County | 1,329 | 5,702 | 215 | 7,246 | R +60.4 |
| Eastland County | 776 | 6,231 | 215 | 7,222 | R +75.5 |
| Young County | 780 | 6,209 | 215 | 7,204 | R +75.4 |
| Hutchinson County | 696 | 6,288 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.7 |
| Blanco County | 1,614 | 5,277 | 211 | 7,102 | R +51.6 |
| DeWitt County | 1,146 | 5,721 | 211 | 7,078 | R +64.6 |
| Robertson County | 1,669 | 5,050 | 206 | 6,925 | R +48.8 |
| Calhoun County | 1,669 | 4,991 | 204 | 6,864 | R +48.4 |
| Hockley County | 1,099 | 5,539 | 204 | 6,842 | R +64.9 |
| Gray County | 598 | 5,977 | 202 | 6,777 | R +79.4 |
| Gonzales County | 1,382 | 5,043 | 196 | 6,621 | R +55.3 |
| Jones County | 850 | 5,408 | 192 | 6,450 | R +70.7 |
| Trinity County | 1,003 | 5,078 | 187 | 6,268 | R +65.0 |
| Callahan County | 584 | 5,306 | 181 | 6,071 | R +77.8 |
| Falls County | 1,525 | 4,024 | 171 | 5,720 | R +43.7 |
| Rains County | 706 | 4,809 | 169 | 5,684 | R +72.2 |
| Comanche County | 684 | 4,733 | 166 | 5,583 | R +72.5 |
| Jackson County | 766 | 4,588 | 164 | 5,518 | R +69.3 |
| Willacy County | 3,024 | 2,162 | 159 | 5,345 | D +16.1 |
| Gaines County | 389 | 4,620 | 153 | 5,162 | R +82.0 |
| Scurry County | 615 | 4,331 | 151 | 5,097 | R +72.9 |
| Clay County | 495 | 4,406 | 150 | 5,051 | R +77.4 |
| Newton County | 845 | 4,035 | 150 | 5,030 | R +63.4 |
| Andrews County | 621 | 4,230 | 148 | 4,999 | R +72.2 |
| Red River County | 933 | 3,860 | 147 | 4,940 | R +59.3 |
| Sabine County | 482 | 4,208 | 144 | 4,834 | R +77.1 |
| Karnes County | 1,043 | 3,568 | 141 | 4,752 | R +53.1 |
| Frio County | 2,284 | 2,305 | 141 | 4,730 | R +0.5 |
| Madison County | 799 | 3,789 | 141 | 4,729 | R +63.2 |
| Morris County | 1,138 | 3,387 | 139 | 4,664 | R +48.2 |
| Nolan County | 879 | 3,624 | 138 | 4,641 | R +59.2 |
| Moore County | 721 | 3,751 | 137 | 4,609 | R +65.8 |
| Camp County | 1,007 | 3,425 | 136 | 4,568 | R +53.0 |
| Franklin County | 649 | 3,742 | 135 | 4,526 | R +68.3 |
| Live Oak County | 644 | 3,708 | 133 | 4,485 | R +68.3 |
| Somervell County | 683 | 3,660 | 133 | 4,476 | R +66.5 |
| Archer County | 389 | 3,788 | 129 | 4,306 | R +78.9 |
| Brewster County | 2,073 | 2,048 | 125 | 4,246 | D +0.6 |
| Pecos County | 1,252 | 2,789 | 123 | 4,164 | R +36.9 |
| Wilbarger County | 761 | 3,151 | 120 | 4,032 | R +59.3 |
| Zapata County | 2,119 | 1,784 | 119 | 4,022 | D +8.3 |
| Marion County | 944 | 2,954 | 119 | 4,017 | R +50.0 |
| Deaf Smith County | 914 | 2,923 | 117 | 3,954 | R +50.8 |
| Duval County | 2,250 | 1,570 | 118 | 3,938 | D +17.3 |
| Hamilton County | 530 | 3,199 | 115 | 3,844 | R +69.4 |
| Lamb County | 614 | 2,977 | 110 | 3,701 | R +63.8 |
| Runnels County | 375 | 3,176 | 109 | 3,660 | R +76.5 |
| Coleman County | 343 | 3,158 | 107 | 3,608 | R +78.0 |
| Goliad County | 703 | 2,719 | 104 | 3,526 | R +57.1 |
| Jack County | 270 | 3,142 | 106 | 3,518 | R +81.7 |
| Stephens County | 264 | 2,987 | 100 | 3,351 | R +81.3 |
| San Augustine County | 693 | 2,505 | 98 | 3,296 | R +55.0 |
| Dawson County | 608 | 2,516 | 96 | 3,220 | R +59.3 |
| Ward County | 563 | 2,505 | 94 | 3,162 | R +61.4 |
| Terry County | 526 | 2,522 | 94 | 3,142 | R +63.5 |
| Dimmit County | 1,958 | 1,074 | 92 | 3,124 | D +28.3 |
| Zavala County | 2,074 | 903 | 91 | 3,068 | D +38.2 |
| McCulloch County | 387 | 2,530 | 89 | 3,006 | R +71.3 |
| Reeves County | 1,245 | 1,670 | 90 | 3,005 | R +14.1 |
| Carson County | 234 | 2,372 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.6 |
| Refugio County | 786 | 1,800 | 79 | 2,665 | R +38.0 |
| Ochiltree County | 216 | 2,287 | 77 | 2,580 | R +80.3 |
| Mitchell County | 310 | 2,042 | 72 | 2,424 | R +71.5 |
| San Saba County | 225 | 2,111 | 71 | 2,407 | R +78.4 |
| Brooks County | 1,498 | 785 | 69 | 2,352 | D +30.3 |
| Mills County | 215 | 2,028 | 69 | 2,312 | R +78.4 |
| Parmer County | 306 | 1,905 | 68 | 2,279 | R +70.2 |
| Delta County | 340 | 1,848 | 66 | 2,254 | R +66.9 |
| Mason County | 379 | 1,750 | 65 | 2,194 | R +62.5 |
| Childress County | 227 | 1,809 | 62 | 2,098 | R +75.4 |
| Kimble County | 221 | 1,810 | 62 | 2,093 | R +76.0 |
| Lynn County | 295 | 1,731 | 62 | 2,088 | R +68.7 |
| Swisher County | 389 | 1,623 | 62 | 2,074 | R +59.5 |
| Haskell County | 282 | 1,682 | 60 | 2,024 | R +69.2 |
| Yoakum County | 264 | 1,697 | 60 | 2,021 | R +70.9 |
| La Salle County | 938 | 1,007 | 60 | 2,005 | R +3.4 |
| Wheeler County | 142 | 1,747 | 57 | 1,946 | R +82.5 |
| Presidio County | 1,387 | 453 | 56 | 1,896 | D +49.3 |
| Castro County | 356 | 1,440 | 55 | 1,851 | R +58.5 |
| Hartley County | 152 | 1,622 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.4 |
| Floyd County | 287 | 1,404 | 53 | 1,744 | R +64.1 |
| Hansford County | 120 | 1,572 | 52 | 1,744 | R +83.2 |
| Winkler County | 263 | 1,420 | 53 | 1,736 | R +66.7 |
| Martin County | 206 | 1,472 | 52 | 1,730 | R +73.2 |
| Bailey County | 305 | 1,319 | 50 | 1,674 | R +60.6 |
| Crosby County | 390 | 1,155 | 47 | 1,592 | R +48.0 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,004 | 520 | 46 | 1,570 | D +30.8 |
| Real County | 217 | 1,302 | 46 | 1,565 | R +69.3 |
| Fisher County | 269 | 1,241 | 46 | 1,556 | R +62.5 |
| Coke County | 146 | 1,363 | 45 | 1,554 | R +78.3 |
| Baylor County | 149 | 1,296 | 43 | 1,488 | R +77.1 |
| Garza County | 210 | 1,228 | 44 | 1,482 | R +68.7 |
| Shackelford County | 116 | 1,285 | 43 | 1,444 | R +81.0 |
| Hemphill County | 164 | 1,230 | 42 | 1,436 | R +74.2 |
| Donley County | 135 | 1,243 | 42 | 1,420 | R +78.0 |
| Dallam County | 143 | 1,195 | 41 | 1,379 | R +76.3 |
| Kinney County | 324 | 933 | 39 | 1,296 | R +47.0 |
| Crockett County | 297 | 915 | 38 | 1,250 | R +49.4 |
| Crane County | 171 | 1,030 | 36 | 1,237 | R +69.4 |
| Sutton County | 209 | 984 | 37 | 1,230 | R +63.0 |
| Hardeman County | 161 | 1,018 | 35 | 1,214 | R +70.5 |
| Knox County | 181 | 962 | 35 | 1,178 | R +66.3 |
| Upton County | 131 | 975 | 34 | 1,140 | R +74.1 |
| Concho County | 156 | 933 | 33 | 1,122 | R +69.3 |
| Lipscomb County | 94 | 954 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.6 |
| Jeff Davis County | 425 | 597 | 30 | 1,052 | R +16.4 |
| Collingsworth County | 112 | 885 | 31 | 1,028 | R +75.3 |
| Hall County | 126 | 868 | 31 | 1,025 | R +72.3 |
| Schleicher County | 180 | 800 | 30 | 1,010 | R +61.4 |
| Armstrong County | 67 | 865 | 28 | 960 | R +83.0 |
| Hudspeth County | 294 | 622 | 28 | 944 | R +34.7 |
| Menard County | 137 | 709 | 26 | 872 | R +65.6 |
| Dickens County | 113 | 701 | 25 | 839 | R +70.0 |
| Oldham County | 66 | 730 | 24 | 820 | R +81.0 |
| Reagan County | 122 | 673 | 25 | 820 | R +67.3 |
| Sherman County | 58 | 732 | 24 | 814 | R +82.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 61 | 673 | 22 | 756 | R +80.9 |
| Culberson County | 343 | 372 | 21 | 736 | R +3.9 |
| Cochran County | 118 | 595 | 22 | 735 | R +64.8 |
| Irion County | 82 | 604 | 20 | 706 | R +73.9 |
| Edwards County | 82 | 557 | 19 | 658 | R +72.1 |
| Briscoe County | 47 | 564 | 19 | 630 | R +82.0 |
| Stonewall County | 90 | 490 | 18 | 598 | R +67.1 |
| Motley County | 33 | 522 | 17 | 572 | R +85.4 |
| Cottle County | 77 | 472 | 17 | 566 | R +69.8 |
| Glasscock County | 30 | 502 | 17 | 549 | R +85.9 |
| Sterling County | 30 | 461 | 15 | 506 | R +85.1 |
| Foard County | 88 | 401 | 15 | 504 | R +62.0 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.9 |
| Terrell County | 94 | 281 | 11 | 386 | R +48.3 |
| Kent County | 39 | 325 | 12 | 376 | R +76.2 |
| Borden County | 16 | 295 | 11 | 322 | R +86.8 |
| McMullen County | 23 | 240 | 9 | 272 | R +79.9 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.3 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +30.7 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +75.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.9 and R +10.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.1 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +3.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.9 and R +10.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ellis | Blacklock | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 43.9 | 56.1 | R +12.2 |