2026 forecast · Texas Attorney General
Nathan Johnson and Mayes Middleton are in a toss up for Texas's attorney general.
Nathan Johnson vs Mayes Middleton, an open seat. The model has Middleton ahead by 0.8 points, with a 57 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.8Polls R +2.4Updated October 22, 2026
Nathan Johnson
Democrat
47.4%
4,740,573 projected votes
Mayes Middleton
Republican
48.3%
4,824,592 projected votes
57%Middleton
43%Johnson
Middleton slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Middleton wins about 57 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Johnson +1,402,970 net votes from 28 countiesStatewide R +0.8, a 84,020 vote marginMiddleton +1,486,990 net votes from 226 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton R | 4,824,592 | 48.3% |
| Nathan Johnson D | 4,740,573 | 47.4% |
| Tom Oxford, Omer Wagas Khwaja | 433,758 | 4.3% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Johnson | Middleton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,740,569 | 4,824,589 | 433,758 | 9,998,916 | R +0.8 |
| Harris County | 809,528 | 514,772 | 60,054 | 1,384,354 | D +21.3 |
| Dallas County | 525,394 | 218,996 | 33,756 | 778,146 | D +39.4 |
| Tarrant County | 368,984 | 320,138 | 31,250 | 720,372 | D +6.8 |
| Bexar County | 415,844 | 239,440 | 29,715 | 684,999 | D +25.8 |
| Travis County | 415,102 | 111,953 | 23,900 | 550,955 | D +55.0 |
| Collin County | 212,401 | 206,788 | 19,009 | 438,198 | D +1.3 |
| Denton County | 175,718 | 188,515 | 16,517 | 380,750 | R +3.4 |
| Fort Bend County | 168,300 | 125,400 | 13,318 | 307,018 | D +14.0 |
| Williamson County | 140,516 | 114,214 | 11,551 | 266,281 | D +9.9 |
| Montgomery County | 70,866 | 171,100 | 10,972 | 252,938 | R +39.6 |
| El Paso County | 154,246 | 67,902 | 10,074 | 232,222 | D +37.2 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,362 | 71,874 | 8,490 | 195,726 | D +22.2 |
| Brazoria County | 54,941 | 74,887 | 5,888 | 135,716 | R +14.7 |
| Galveston County | 52,122 | 76,916 | 5,852 | 134,890 | R +18.4 |
| Bell County | 50,830 | 58,884 | 4,976 | 114,690 | R +7.0 |
| Nueces County | 54,673 | 53,018 | 4,884 | 112,575 | D +1.5 |
| Hays County | 62,390 | 42,525 | 4,758 | 109,673 | D +18.1 |
| Lubbock County | 35,450 | 68,533 | 4,715 | 108,698 | R +30.4 |
| Cameron County | 59,470 | 41,961 | 4,600 | 106,031 | D +16.5 |
| Smith County | 24,994 | 61,156 | 3,907 | 90,057 | R +40.2 |
| McLennan County | 32,664 | 52,218 | 3,848 | 88,730 | R +22.0 |
| Comal County | 24,350 | 58,309 | 3,748 | 86,407 | R +39.3 |
| Ellis County | 26,264 | 51,350 | 3,520 | 81,134 | R +30.9 |
| Brazos County | 33,927 | 43,370 | 3,505 | 80,802 | R +11.7 |
| Jefferson County | 37,384 | 36,253 | 3,339 | 76,976 | D +1.5 |
| Parker County | 12,459 | 58,223 | 3,205 | 73,887 | R +61.9 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,913 | 41,299 | 3,048 | 70,260 | R +21.9 |
| Johnson County | 16,593 | 48,567 | 2,956 | 68,116 | R +46.9 |
| Webb County | 37,311 | 20,248 | 2,611 | 60,170 | D +28.4 |
| Randall County | 11,839 | 43,029 | 2,488 | 57,356 | R +54.4 |
| Kaufman County | 18,531 | 34,551 | 2,408 | 55,490 | R +28.9 |
| Grayson County | 12,339 | 39,686 | 2,359 | 54,384 | R +50.3 |
| Rockwall County | 15,051 | 33,853 | 2,218 | 51,122 | R +36.8 |
| Midland County | 10,422 | 38,253 | 2,208 | 50,883 | R +54.7 |
| Taylor County | 12,797 | 34,086 | 2,127 | 49,010 | R +43.4 |
| Gregg County | 11,991 | 26,932 | 1,766 | 40,689 | R +36.7 |
| Wichita County | 12,566 | 25,933 | 1,746 | 40,245 | R +33.2 |
| Tom Green County | 11,115 | 27,080 | 1,732 | 39,927 | R +40.0 |
| Hunt County | 8,181 | 28,583 | 1,667 | 38,431 | R +53.1 |
| Ector County | 9,227 | 25,235 | 1,562 | 36,024 | R +44.4 |
| Bastrop County | 15,405 | 18,295 | 1,528 | 35,228 | R +8.2 |
| Henderson County | 5,948 | 26,005 | 1,449 | 33,402 | R +60.0 |
| Bowie County | 9,128 | 21,760 | 1,402 | 32,290 | R +39.1 |
| Hood County | 5,689 | 24,069 | 1,349 | 31,107 | R +59.1 |
| Victoria County | 9,121 | 20,394 | 1,338 | 30,853 | R +36.5 |
| Orange County | 5,135 | 24,240 | 1,331 | 30,706 | R +62.2 |
| Wise County | 4,400 | 24,926 | 1,330 | 30,656 | R +67.0 |
| Angelina County | 7,578 | 20,896 | 1,292 | 29,766 | R +44.7 |
| Potter County | 9,032 | 19,215 | 1,281 | 29,528 | R +34.5 |
| Liberty County | 4,910 | 20,283 | 1,142 | 26,335 | R +58.4 |
| Harrison County | 6,452 | 18,072 | 1,112 | 25,636 | R +45.3 |
| Kerr County | 5,771 | 18,239 | 1,089 | 25,099 | R +49.7 |
| Kendall County | 5,275 | 18,460 | 1,076 | 24,811 | R +53.1 |
| Van Zandt County | 3,025 | 20,197 | 1,053 | 24,275 | R +70.7 |
| Walker County | 7,596 | 15,541 | 1,049 | 24,186 | R +32.9 |
| Burnet County | 5,457 | 17,416 | 1,037 | 23,910 | R +50.0 |
| Hardin County | 2,869 | 19,592 | 1,019 | 23,480 | R +71.2 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,265 | 14,503 | 987 | 22,755 | R +31.8 |
| Coryell County | 7,202 | 14,507 | 985 | 22,694 | R +32.2 |
| Wilson County | 5,499 | 16,081 | 978 | 22,558 | R +46.9 |
| San Patricio County | 7,799 | 13,542 | 968 | 22,309 | R +25.7 |
| Waller County | 7,894 | 12,747 | 935 | 21,576 | R +22.5 |
| Wood County | 3,070 | 17,099 | 914 | 21,083 | R +66.5 |
| Medina County | 6,043 | 13,869 | 903 | 20,815 | R +37.6 |
| Polk County | 4,336 | 15,172 | 884 | 20,392 | R +53.1 |
| Chambers County | 3,315 | 15,247 | 842 | 19,404 | R +61.5 |
| Rusk County | 3,841 | 14,204 | 818 | 18,863 | R +54.9 |
| Lamar County | 3,716 | 14,063 | 807 | 18,586 | R +55.7 |
| Anderson County | 3,601 | 13,817 | 790 | 18,208 | R +56.1 |
| Cherokee County | 3,294 | 13,622 | 768 | 17,684 | R +58.4 |
| Cooke County | 2,723 | 14,001 | 758 | 17,482 | R +64.5 |
| Navarro County | 4,220 | 12,248 | 748 | 17,216 | R +46.6 |
| Upshur County | 2,509 | 13,578 | 729 | 16,816 | R +65.8 |
| Erath County | 2,675 | 12,712 | 697 | 16,084 | R +62.4 |
| Washington County | 3,480 | 11,741 | 690 | 15,911 | R +51.9 |
| Atascosa County | 4,895 | 10,242 | 687 | 15,824 | R +33.8 |
| Brown County | 1,917 | 12,233 | 642 | 14,792 | R +69.7 |
| Caldwell County | 6,831 | 7,061 | 630 | 14,522 | R +1.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,827 | 11,024 | 628 | 14,479 | R +56.6 |
| Wharton County | 3,671 | 10,142 | 627 | 14,440 | R +44.8 |
| Starr County | 8,307 | 5,424 | 623 | 14,354 | D +20.1 |
| Hopkins County | 2,789 | 10,869 | 620 | 14,278 | R +56.6 |
| Fannin County | 2,197 | 11,207 | 608 | 14,012 | R +64.3 |
| Hill County | 2,535 | 10,853 | 608 | 13,996 | R +59.4 |
| Jasper County | 2,218 | 10,538 | 578 | 13,334 | R +62.4 |
| Maverick County | 7,246 | 5,368 | 572 | 13,186 | D +14.2 |
| Austin County | 2,360 | 10,015 | 562 | 12,937 | R +59.2 |
| Val Verde County | 5,602 | 6,640 | 554 | 12,796 | R +8.1 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,758 | 5,798 | 524 | 12,080 | R +0.3 |
| Llano County | 2,394 | 9,143 | 523 | 12,060 | R +56.0 |
| Cass County | 2,092 | 9,291 | 517 | 11,900 | R +60.5 |
| Matagorda County | 3,040 | 8,228 | 510 | 11,778 | R +44.0 |
| Grimes County | 2,190 | 8,989 | 507 | 11,686 | R +58.2 |
| Fayette County | 2,213 | 8,935 | 506 | 11,654 | R +57.7 |
| Bandera County | 2,148 | 8,932 | 502 | 11,582 | R +58.6 |
| Aransas County | 2,481 | 8,387 | 493 | 11,361 | R +52.0 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,724 | 9,090 | 491 | 11,305 | R +65.2 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,075 | 8,552 | 483 | 11,110 | R +58.3 |
| Milam County | 2,241 | 7,079 | 422 | 9,742 | R +49.7 |
| Lampasas County | 1,935 | 7,263 | 418 | 9,616 | R +55.4 |
| Panola County | 1,624 | 7,572 | 417 | 9,613 | R +61.9 |
| Kleberg County | 4,622 | 4,523 | 415 | 9,560 | D +1.0 |
| Montague County | 973 | 7,836 | 400 | 9,209 | R +74.5 |
| Lavaca County | 1,088 | 7,637 | 395 | 9,120 | R +71.8 |
| Titus County | 2,032 | 6,525 | 389 | 8,946 | R +50.2 |
| Uvalde County | 3,405 | 5,055 | 384 | 8,844 | R +18.6 |
| Howard County | 1,812 | 6,505 | 377 | 8,694 | R +54.0 |
| Bee County | 2,907 | 5,352 | 374 | 8,633 | R +28.3 |
| Colorado County | 1,843 | 6,393 | 373 | 8,609 | R +52.9 |
| Hale County | 1,806 | 6,288 | 367 | 8,461 | R +53.0 |
| Shelby County | 1,527 | 6,557 | 366 | 8,450 | R +59.5 |
| Houston County | 1,864 | 6,154 | 364 | 8,382 | R +51.2 |
| Tyler County | 1,127 | 6,888 | 364 | 8,379 | R +68.8 |
| Bosque County | 1,422 | 6,534 | 360 | 8,316 | R +61.5 |
| Limestone County | 1,845 | 5,840 | 348 | 8,033 | R +49.7 |
| Burleson County | 1,361 | 6,137 | 340 | 7,838 | R +60.9 |
| Freestone County | 1,278 | 6,168 | 337 | 7,783 | R +62.8 |
| Leon County | 789 | 6,520 | 331 | 7,640 | R +75.0 |
| Lee County | 1,413 | 5,519 | 314 | 7,246 | R +56.7 |
| Eastland County | 848 | 6,060 | 314 | 7,222 | R +72.2 |
| Young County | 853 | 6,039 | 312 | 7,204 | R +72.0 |
| Hutchinson County | 761 | 6,125 | 312 | 7,198 | R +74.5 |
| Blanco County | 1,687 | 5,107 | 308 | 7,102 | R +48.2 |
| DeWitt County | 1,231 | 5,540 | 307 | 7,078 | R +60.9 |
| Robertson County | 1,772 | 4,852 | 301 | 6,925 | R +44.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,774 | 4,793 | 297 | 6,864 | R +44.0 |
| Hockley County | 1,191 | 5,353 | 298 | 6,842 | R +60.8 |
| Gray County | 658 | 5,825 | 294 | 6,777 | R +76.2 |
| Gonzales County | 1,458 | 4,876 | 287 | 6,621 | R +51.6 |
| Jones County | 927 | 5,243 | 280 | 6,450 | R +66.9 |
| Trinity County | 1,096 | 4,899 | 273 | 6,268 | R +60.7 |
| Callahan County | 633 | 5,175 | 263 | 6,071 | R +74.8 |
| Falls County | 1,619 | 3,853 | 248 | 5,720 | R +39.1 |
| Rains County | 765 | 4,673 | 246 | 5,684 | R +68.8 |
| Comanche County | 742 | 4,599 | 242 | 5,583 | R +69.1 |
| Jackson County | 831 | 4,448 | 239 | 5,518 | R +65.5 |
| Willacy County | 3,057 | 2,056 | 232 | 5,345 | D +18.7 |
| Gaines County | 425 | 4,513 | 224 | 5,162 | R +79.2 |
| Scurry County | 665 | 4,211 | 221 | 5,097 | R +69.6 |
| Clay County | 548 | 4,284 | 219 | 5,051 | R +74.0 |
| Newton County | 924 | 3,887 | 219 | 5,030 | R +58.9 |
| Andrews County | 676 | 4,106 | 217 | 4,999 | R +68.6 |
| Red River County | 1,008 | 3,717 | 215 | 4,940 | R +54.9 |
| Sabine County | 539 | 4,085 | 210 | 4,834 | R +73.4 |
| Karnes County | 1,110 | 3,436 | 206 | 4,752 | R +49.0 |
| Frio County | 2,300 | 2,225 | 205 | 4,730 | D +1.6 |
| Madison County | 864 | 3,660 | 205 | 4,729 | R +59.1 |
| Morris County | 1,221 | 3,241 | 202 | 4,664 | R +43.3 |
| Nolan County | 949 | 3,491 | 201 | 4,641 | R +54.8 |
| Moore County | 774 | 3,635 | 200 | 4,609 | R +62.1 |
| Camp County | 1,063 | 3,307 | 198 | 4,568 | R +49.1 |
| Franklin County | 703 | 3,627 | 196 | 4,526 | R +64.6 |
| Live Oak County | 696 | 3,595 | 194 | 4,485 | R +64.6 |
| Somervell County | 745 | 3,537 | 194 | 4,476 | R +62.4 |
| Archer County | 433 | 3,686 | 187 | 4,306 | R +75.6 |
| Brewster County | 2,116 | 1,946 | 184 | 4,246 | D +4.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,316 | 2,668 | 180 | 4,164 | R +32.5 |
| Wilbarger County | 824 | 3,034 | 174 | 4,032 | R +54.8 |
| Zapata County | 2,124 | 1,724 | 174 | 4,022 | D +10.0 |
| Marion County | 1,015 | 2,827 | 175 | 4,017 | R +45.1 |
| Deaf Smith County | 970 | 2,813 | 171 | 3,954 | R +46.6 |
| Duval County | 2,255 | 1,512 | 171 | 3,938 | D +18.9 |
| Hamilton County | 565 | 3,111 | 168 | 3,844 | R +66.2 |
| Lamb County | 665 | 2,875 | 161 | 3,701 | R +59.7 |
| Runnels County | 410 | 3,091 | 159 | 3,660 | R +73.3 |
| Coleman County | 379 | 3,072 | 157 | 3,608 | R +74.7 |
| Goliad County | 754 | 2,620 | 152 | 3,526 | R +52.9 |
| Jack County | 294 | 3,070 | 154 | 3,518 | R +78.9 |
| Stephens County | 289 | 2,917 | 145 | 3,351 | R +78.4 |
| San Augustine County | 748 | 2,405 | 143 | 3,296 | R +50.3 |
| Dawson County | 649 | 2,431 | 140 | 3,220 | R +55.3 |
| Ward County | 605 | 2,421 | 136 | 3,162 | R +57.4 |
| Terry County | 569 | 2,437 | 136 | 3,142 | R +59.5 |
| Dimmit County | 1,954 | 1,035 | 135 | 3,124 | D +29.4 |
| Zavala County | 2,064 | 870 | 134 | 3,068 | D +38.9 |
| McCulloch County | 425 | 2,451 | 130 | 3,006 | R +67.4 |
| Reeves County | 1,286 | 1,588 | 131 | 3,005 | R +10.1 |
| Carson County | 257 | 2,312 | 117 | 2,686 | R +76.5 |
| Refugio County | 834 | 1,715 | 116 | 2,665 | R +33.1 |
| Ochiltree County | 237 | 2,231 | 112 | 2,580 | R +77.3 |
| Mitchell County | 332 | 1,987 | 105 | 2,424 | R +68.3 |
| San Saba County | 245 | 2,058 | 104 | 2,407 | R +75.3 |
| Brooks County | 1,505 | 745 | 102 | 2,352 | D +32.3 |
| Mills County | 233 | 1,979 | 100 | 2,312 | R +75.5 |
| Parmer County | 333 | 1,847 | 99 | 2,279 | R +66.5 |
| Delta County | 366 | 1,790 | 98 | 2,254 | R +63.2 |
| Mason County | 402 | 1,697 | 95 | 2,194 | R +59.0 |
| Childress County | 242 | 1,766 | 90 | 2,098 | R +72.6 |
| Kimble County | 238 | 1,764 | 91 | 2,093 | R +72.9 |
| Lynn County | 321 | 1,676 | 91 | 2,088 | R +64.9 |
| Swisher County | 415 | 1,569 | 90 | 2,074 | R +55.6 |
| Haskell County | 307 | 1,629 | 88 | 2,024 | R +65.3 |
| Yoakum County | 293 | 1,641 | 87 | 2,021 | R +66.7 |
| La Salle County | 956 | 962 | 87 | 2,005 | R +0.3 |
| Wheeler County | 158 | 1,704 | 84 | 1,946 | R +79.4 |
| Presidio County | 1,372 | 442 | 82 | 1,896 | D +49.1 |
| Castro County | 377 | 1,393 | 81 | 1,851 | R +54.9 |
| Hartley County | 165 | 1,584 | 79 | 1,828 | R +77.6 |
| Floyd County | 310 | 1,358 | 76 | 1,744 | R +60.1 |
| Hansford County | 130 | 1,539 | 75 | 1,744 | R +80.8 |
| Winkler County | 283 | 1,377 | 76 | 1,736 | R +63.1 |
| Martin County | 225 | 1,430 | 75 | 1,730 | R +69.7 |
| Bailey County | 327 | 1,275 | 72 | 1,674 | R +56.6 |
| Crosby County | 417 | 1,106 | 69 | 1,592 | R +43.3 |
| Jim Hogg County | 999 | 504 | 67 | 1,570 | D +31.5 |
| Real County | 233 | 1,264 | 68 | 1,565 | R +65.8 |
| Fisher County | 293 | 1,195 | 68 | 1,556 | R +58.0 |
| Coke County | 157 | 1,330 | 67 | 1,554 | R +75.5 |
| Baylor County | 165 | 1,259 | 64 | 1,488 | R +73.5 |
| Garza County | 224 | 1,194 | 64 | 1,482 | R +65.4 |
| Shackelford County | 128 | 1,253 | 63 | 1,444 | R +78.0 |
| Hemphill County | 178 | 1,196 | 62 | 1,436 | R +70.9 |
| Donley County | 151 | 1,208 | 61 | 1,420 | R +74.4 |
| Dallam County | 155 | 1,164 | 60 | 1,379 | R +73.1 |
| Kinney County | 342 | 897 | 57 | 1,296 | R +42.9 |
| Crockett County | 311 | 885 | 54 | 1,250 | R +46.0 |
| Crane County | 183 | 1,000 | 54 | 1,237 | R +66.0 |
| Sutton County | 223 | 954 | 53 | 1,230 | R +59.4 |
| Hardeman County | 176 | 986 | 52 | 1,214 | R +66.7 |
| Knox County | 196 | 931 | 51 | 1,178 | R +62.5 |
| Upton County | 142 | 948 | 50 | 1,140 | R +70.8 |
| Concho County | 168 | 905 | 49 | 1,122 | R +65.7 |
| Lipscomb County | 107 | 926 | 47 | 1,080 | R +75.9 |
| Jeff Davis County | 440 | 567 | 45 | 1,052 | R +12.1 |
| Collingsworth County | 119 | 864 | 45 | 1,028 | R +72.5 |
| Hall County | 138 | 842 | 45 | 1,025 | R +68.7 |
| Schleicher County | 188 | 778 | 44 | 1,010 | R +58.4 |
| Armstrong County | 72 | 846 | 42 | 960 | R +80.6 |
| Hudspeth County | 311 | 592 | 41 | 944 | R +29.8 |
| Menard County | 149 | 685 | 38 | 872 | R +61.5 |
| Dickens County | 126 | 677 | 36 | 839 | R +65.7 |
| Oldham County | 69 | 715 | 36 | 820 | R +78.8 |
| Reagan County | 131 | 653 | 36 | 820 | R +63.8 |
| Sherman County | 61 | 718 | 35 | 814 | R +80.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 65 | 658 | 33 | 756 | R +78.4 |
| Culberson County | 352 | 353 | 31 | 736 | R +0.1 |
| Cochran County | 127 | 576 | 32 | 735 | R +61.1 |
| Irion County | 90 | 586 | 30 | 706 | R +70.2 |
| Edwards County | 89 | 541 | 28 | 658 | R +68.8 |
| Briscoe County | 53 | 550 | 27 | 630 | R +78.8 |
| Stonewall County | 95 | 476 | 27 | 598 | R +63.8 |
| Motley County | 36 | 511 | 25 | 572 | R +83.0 |
| Cottle County | 84 | 457 | 25 | 566 | R +66.1 |
| Glasscock County | 34 | 492 | 23 | 549 | R +83.4 |
| Sterling County | 34 | 450 | 22 | 506 | R +82.0 |
| Foard County | 96 | 387 | 21 | 504 | R +57.7 |
| Roberts County | 13 | 398 | 18 | 429 | R +89.7 |
| Terrell County | 99 | 270 | 17 | 386 | R +44.3 |
| Kent County | 41 | 318 | 17 | 376 | R +73.7 |
| Borden County | 17 | 290 | 15 | 322 | R +84.9 |
| McMullen County | 25 | 235 | 12 | 272 | R +77.6 |
| King County | 5 | 100 | 5 | 110 | R +86.9 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 41 | 3 | 66 | R +29.1 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +73.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +4.9 and R +6.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +1.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.0 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +0.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +4.9 and R +6.6.
Polls of the race
16 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Johnson | Middleton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 47.1 | 52.9 | R +5.8 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 43 | 46 | R +3.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| ReconMR Texas Poll | 614 LV | 2026-09-11 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 41 | 44 | R +3.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 40 | R +5.0 |
| Texas A&M / ReconMR / Siena | 619 LV | 2026-07-30 | 44 | 46 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 2026-07-30 | 41 | 46 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,048 LV | 2026-07-17 | 38 | 39 | R +1.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-06-12 | 36 | 41 | R +5.0 |
| ReconMR / Texas A&M Texas Poll | 807 LV | 2026-06-04 | 40 | 45 | R +5.0 |