2026 forecast · Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 9
Holly Taylor and John Messinger are in a toss up for Texas's judge, court of criminal appeals, place 9.
Holly Taylor vs John Messinger, an open seat. The model has Messinger ahead by 0.9 points, with a 57 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.9Polls R +9.0Updated October 22, 2026
Holly Taylor
Democrat
48.0%
4,804,168 projected votes
John Messinger
Republican
49.0%
4,897,345 projected votes
57%Messinger
43%Taylor
Messinger slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Messinger wins about 57 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Taylor +1,440,981 net votes from 28 countiesStatewide R +0.9, a 93,173 vote marginMessinger +1,534,154 net votes from 225 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| John Messinger R | 4,897,345 | 49.0% |
| Holly Taylor D | 4,804,168 | 48.0% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Taylor | Messinger | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,804,167 | 4,897,340 | 297,409 | 9,998,916 | R +0.9 |
| Harris County | 822,744 | 520,434 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +21.8 |
| Dallas County | 533,868 | 221,132 | 23,146 | 778,146 | D +40.2 |
| Tarrant County | 373,866 | 325,079 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +6.8 |
| Bexar County | 423,858 | 240,766 | 20,375 | 684,999 | D +26.7 |
| Travis County | 423,600 | 110,967 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +56.7 |
| Collin County | 215,361 | 209,804 | 13,033 | 438,198 | D +1.3 |
| Denton County | 177,748 | 191,677 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +3.7 |
| Fort Bend County | 170,939 | 126,947 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +14.3 |
| Williamson County | 142,648 | 115,712 | 7,921 | 266,281 | D +10.1 |
| Montgomery County | 70,831 | 174,584 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +41.0 |
| El Paso County | 156,567 | 68,747 | 6,908 | 232,222 | D +37.8 |
| Hidalgo County | 118,008 | 71,896 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +23.6 |
| Brazoria County | 55,417 | 76,262 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +15.4 |
| Galveston County | 52,452 | 78,425 | 4,013 | 134,890 | R +19.3 |
| Bell County | 51,732 | 59,546 | 3,412 | 114,690 | R +6.8 |
| Nueces County | 55,319 | 53,908 | 3,348 | 112,575 | D +1.3 |
| Hays County | 63,562 | 42,849 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +18.9 |
| Lubbock County | 35,561 | 69,904 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +31.6 |
| Cameron County | 60,443 | 42,434 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +17.0 |
| Smith County | 25,108 | 62,271 | 2,678 | 90,057 | R +41.3 |
| McLennan County | 32,758 | 53,333 | 2,639 | 88,730 | R +23.2 |
| Comal County | 24,420 | 59,417 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +40.5 |
| Ellis County | 26,482 | 52,239 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +31.8 |
| Brazos County | 34,386 | 44,014 | 2,402 | 80,802 | R +11.9 |
| Jefferson County | 37,623 | 37,064 | 2,289 | 76,976 | D +0.7 |
| Parker County | 12,385 | 59,304 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +63.5 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,999 | 42,171 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +23.0 |
| Johnson County | 16,595 | 49,494 | 2,027 | 68,116 | R +48.3 |
| Webb County | 38,071 | 20,309 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +29.5 |
| Randall County | 11,729 | 43,921 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +56.1 |
| Kaufman County | 18,650 | 35,189 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +29.8 |
| Grayson County | 12,374 | 40,392 | 1,618 | 54,384 | R +51.5 |
| Rockwall County | 15,085 | 34,516 | 1,521 | 51,122 | R +38.0 |
| Midland County | 10,366 | 39,004 | 1,513 | 50,883 | R +56.3 |
| Taylor County | 12,720 | 34,831 | 1,459 | 49,010 | R +45.1 |
| Gregg County | 11,989 | 27,489 | 1,211 | 40,689 | R +38.1 |
| Wichita County | 12,543 | 26,505 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +34.7 |
| Tom Green County | 11,084 | 27,655 | 1,188 | 39,927 | R +41.5 |
| Hunt County | 8,182 | 29,106 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +54.4 |
| Ector County | 9,128 | 25,825 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +46.4 |
| Bastrop County | 15,575 | 18,605 | 1,048 | 35,228 | R +8.6 |
| Henderson County | 5,946 | 26,463 | 993 | 33,402 | R +61.4 |
| Bowie County | 8,957 | 22,372 | 961 | 32,290 | R +41.5 |
| Hood County | 5,624 | 24,557 | 926 | 31,107 | R +60.9 |
| Victoria County | 9,110 | 20,825 | 918 | 30,853 | R +38.0 |
| Orange County | 5,076 | 24,718 | 912 | 30,706 | R +64.0 |
| Wise County | 4,368 | 25,376 | 912 | 30,656 | R +68.5 |
| Angelina County | 7,507 | 21,373 | 886 | 29,766 | R +46.6 |
| Potter County | 9,028 | 19,622 | 878 | 29,528 | R +35.9 |
| Liberty County | 4,865 | 20,686 | 784 | 26,335 | R +60.1 |
| Harrison County | 6,375 | 18,498 | 763 | 25,636 | R +47.3 |
| Kerr County | 5,786 | 18,567 | 746 | 25,099 | R +50.9 |
| Kendall County | 5,315 | 18,758 | 738 | 24,811 | R +54.2 |
| Van Zandt County | 3,005 | 20,548 | 722 | 24,275 | R +72.3 |
| Walker County | 7,658 | 15,808 | 720 | 24,186 | R +33.7 |
| Burnet County | 5,459 | 17,740 | 711 | 23,910 | R +51.4 |
| Hardin County | 2,823 | 19,958 | 699 | 23,480 | R +73.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,259 | 14,819 | 677 | 22,755 | R +33.2 |
| Coryell County | 7,171 | 14,848 | 675 | 22,694 | R +33.8 |
| Wilson County | 5,468 | 16,420 | 670 | 22,558 | R +48.5 |
| San Patricio County | 7,826 | 13,820 | 663 | 22,309 | R +26.9 |
| Waller County | 7,856 | 13,079 | 641 | 21,576 | R +24.2 |
| Wood County | 3,018 | 17,438 | 627 | 21,083 | R +68.4 |
| Medina County | 6,017 | 14,179 | 619 | 20,815 | R +39.2 |
| Polk County | 4,306 | 15,479 | 607 | 20,392 | R +54.8 |
| Chambers County | 3,276 | 15,550 | 578 | 19,404 | R +63.3 |
| Rusk County | 3,801 | 14,501 | 561 | 18,863 | R +56.7 |
| Lamar County | 3,688 | 14,345 | 553 | 18,586 | R +57.3 |
| Anderson County | 3,577 | 14,090 | 541 | 18,208 | R +57.7 |
| Cherokee County | 3,259 | 13,898 | 527 | 17,684 | R +60.2 |
| Cooke County | 2,729 | 14,234 | 519 | 17,482 | R +65.8 |
| Navarro County | 4,209 | 12,495 | 512 | 17,216 | R +48.1 |
| Upshur County | 2,471 | 13,846 | 499 | 16,816 | R +67.6 |
| Erath County | 2,691 | 12,915 | 478 | 16,084 | R +63.6 |
| Washington County | 3,468 | 11,970 | 473 | 15,911 | R +53.4 |
| Atascosa County | 4,925 | 10,428 | 471 | 15,824 | R +34.8 |
| Brown County | 1,887 | 12,465 | 440 | 14,792 | R +71.5 |
| Caldwell County | 6,853 | 7,237 | 432 | 14,522 | R +2.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,832 | 11,216 | 431 | 14,479 | R +57.9 |
| Wharton County | 3,652 | 10,359 | 429 | 14,440 | R +46.5 |
| Starr County | 8,573 | 5,353 | 428 | 14,354 | D +22.4 |
| Hopkins County | 2,776 | 11,078 | 424 | 14,278 | R +58.1 |
| Fannin County | 2,201 | 11,395 | 416 | 14,012 | R +65.6 |
| Hill County | 2,499 | 11,080 | 417 | 13,996 | R +61.3 |
| Jasper County | 2,174 | 10,764 | 396 | 13,334 | R +64.4 |
| Maverick County | 7,460 | 5,333 | 393 | 13,186 | D +16.1 |
| Austin County | 2,347 | 10,205 | 385 | 12,937 | R +60.7 |
| Val Verde County | 5,685 | 6,731 | 380 | 12,796 | R +8.2 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,821 | 5,899 | 360 | 12,080 | R +0.7 |
| Llano County | 2,380 | 9,321 | 359 | 12,060 | R +57.6 |
| Cass County | 2,042 | 9,504 | 354 | 11,900 | R +62.7 |
| Matagorda County | 3,046 | 8,382 | 350 | 11,778 | R +45.3 |
| Grimes County | 2,191 | 9,147 | 348 | 11,686 | R +59.5 |
| Fayette County | 2,196 | 9,111 | 347 | 11,654 | R +59.3 |
| Bandera County | 2,146 | 9,092 | 344 | 11,582 | R +60.0 |
| Aransas County | 2,464 | 8,560 | 337 | 11,361 | R +53.7 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,732 | 9,237 | 336 | 11,305 | R +66.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,042 | 8,737 | 331 | 11,110 | R +60.3 |
| Milam County | 2,214 | 7,239 | 289 | 9,742 | R +51.6 |
| Lampasas County | 1,920 | 7,410 | 286 | 9,616 | R +57.1 |
| Panola County | 1,593 | 7,734 | 286 | 9,613 | R +63.9 |
| Kleberg County | 4,670 | 4,606 | 284 | 9,560 | D +0.7 |
| Montague County | 962 | 7,973 | 274 | 9,209 | R +76.1 |
| Lavaca County | 1,077 | 7,772 | 271 | 9,120 | R +73.4 |
| Titus County | 2,017 | 6,663 | 266 | 8,946 | R +51.9 |
| Uvalde County | 3,439 | 5,142 | 263 | 8,844 | R +19.3 |
| Howard County | 1,805 | 6,631 | 258 | 8,694 | R +55.5 |
| Bee County | 2,912 | 5,465 | 256 | 8,633 | R +29.6 |
| Colorado County | 1,831 | 6,522 | 256 | 8,609 | R +54.5 |
| Hale County | 1,791 | 6,418 | 252 | 8,461 | R +54.7 |
| Shelby County | 1,501 | 6,698 | 251 | 8,450 | R +61.5 |
| Houston County | 1,839 | 6,293 | 250 | 8,382 | R +53.1 |
| Tyler County | 1,102 | 7,027 | 250 | 8,379 | R +70.7 |
| Bosque County | 1,411 | 6,659 | 246 | 8,316 | R +63.1 |
| Limestone County | 1,829 | 5,965 | 239 | 8,033 | R +51.5 |
| Burleson County | 1,355 | 6,250 | 233 | 7,838 | R +62.5 |
| Freestone County | 1,266 | 6,286 | 231 | 7,783 | R +64.5 |
| Leon County | 775 | 6,638 | 227 | 7,640 | R +76.7 |
| Lee County | 1,415 | 5,615 | 216 | 7,246 | R +58.0 |
| Eastland County | 834 | 6,173 | 215 | 7,222 | R +73.9 |
| Young County | 839 | 6,151 | 214 | 7,204 | R +73.7 |
| Hutchinson County | 748 | 6,236 | 214 | 7,198 | R +76.2 |
| Blanco County | 1,712 | 5,179 | 211 | 7,102 | R +48.8 |
| DeWitt County | 1,223 | 5,644 | 211 | 7,078 | R +62.5 |
| Robertson County | 1,768 | 4,951 | 206 | 6,925 | R +46.0 |
| Calhoun County | 1,766 | 4,894 | 204 | 6,864 | R +45.6 |
| Hockley County | 1,174 | 5,464 | 204 | 6,842 | R +62.7 |
| Gray County | 643 | 5,932 | 202 | 6,777 | R +78.0 |
| Gonzales County | 1,467 | 4,957 | 197 | 6,621 | R +52.7 |
| Jones County | 909 | 5,349 | 192 | 6,450 | R +68.8 |
| Trinity County | 1,071 | 5,010 | 187 | 6,268 | R +62.8 |
| Callahan County | 628 | 5,262 | 181 | 6,071 | R +76.3 |
| Falls County | 1,609 | 3,941 | 170 | 5,720 | R +40.8 |
| Rains County | 757 | 4,758 | 169 | 5,684 | R +70.4 |
| Comanche County | 734 | 4,683 | 166 | 5,583 | R +70.7 |
| Jackson County | 820 | 4,534 | 164 | 5,518 | R +67.3 |
| Willacy County | 3,109 | 2,077 | 159 | 5,345 | D +19.3 |
| Gaines County | 419 | 4,590 | 153 | 5,162 | R +80.8 |
| Scurry County | 658 | 4,287 | 152 | 5,097 | R +71.2 |
| Clay County | 533 | 4,368 | 150 | 5,051 | R +75.9 |
| Newton County | 902 | 3,978 | 150 | 5,030 | R +61.2 |
| Andrews County | 666 | 4,185 | 148 | 4,999 | R +70.4 |
| Red River County | 994 | 3,799 | 147 | 4,940 | R +56.8 |
| Sabine County | 518 | 4,171 | 145 | 4,834 | R +75.6 |
| Karnes County | 1,105 | 3,506 | 141 | 4,752 | R +50.5 |
| Frio County | 2,364 | 2,226 | 140 | 4,730 | D +2.9 |
| Madison County | 852 | 3,736 | 141 | 4,729 | R +61.0 |
| Morris County | 1,205 | 3,321 | 138 | 4,664 | R +45.4 |
| Nolan County | 934 | 3,569 | 138 | 4,641 | R +56.8 |
| Moore County | 768 | 3,704 | 137 | 4,609 | R +63.7 |
| Camp County | 1,068 | 3,365 | 135 | 4,568 | R +50.3 |
| Franklin County | 695 | 3,697 | 134 | 4,526 | R +66.3 |
| Live Oak County | 689 | 3,663 | 133 | 4,485 | R +66.3 |
| Somervell County | 731 | 3,613 | 132 | 4,476 | R +64.4 |
| Archer County | 420 | 3,758 | 128 | 4,306 | R +77.5 |
| Brewster County | 2,146 | 1,975 | 125 | 4,246 | D +4.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,314 | 2,726 | 124 | 4,164 | R +33.9 |
| Wilbarger County | 809 | 3,103 | 120 | 4,032 | R +56.9 |
| Zapata County | 2,187 | 1,715 | 120 | 4,022 | D +11.7 |
| Marion County | 1,000 | 2,897 | 120 | 4,017 | R +47.2 |
| Deaf Smith County | 966 | 2,871 | 117 | 3,954 | R +48.2 |
| Duval County | 2,314 | 1,507 | 117 | 3,938 | D +20.5 |
| Hamilton County | 568 | 3,161 | 115 | 3,844 | R +67.5 |
| Lamb County | 655 | 2,936 | 110 | 3,701 | R +61.6 |
| Runnels County | 403 | 3,148 | 109 | 3,660 | R +75.0 |
| Coleman County | 369 | 3,131 | 108 | 3,608 | R +76.6 |
| Goliad County | 748 | 2,674 | 104 | 3,526 | R +54.6 |
| Jack County | 292 | 3,121 | 105 | 3,518 | R +80.4 |
| Stephens County | 284 | 2,967 | 100 | 3,351 | R +80.1 |
| San Augustine County | 736 | 2,462 | 98 | 3,296 | R +52.4 |
| Dawson County | 646 | 2,478 | 96 | 3,220 | R +56.9 |
| Ward County | 601 | 2,468 | 93 | 3,162 | R +59.0 |
| Terry County | 560 | 2,488 | 94 | 3,142 | R +61.4 |
| Dimmit County | 2,004 | 1,027 | 93 | 3,124 | D +31.3 |
| Zavala County | 2,115 | 861 | 92 | 3,068 | D +40.9 |
| McCulloch County | 415 | 2,501 | 90 | 3,006 | R +69.4 |
| Reeves County | 1,297 | 1,619 | 89 | 3,005 | R +10.7 |
| Carson County | 252 | 2,354 | 80 | 2,686 | R +78.2 |
| Refugio County | 827 | 1,758 | 80 | 2,665 | R +34.9 |
| Ochiltree County | 232 | 2,271 | 77 | 2,580 | R +79.0 |
| Mitchell County | 331 | 2,021 | 72 | 2,424 | R +69.7 |
| San Saba County | 242 | 2,094 | 71 | 2,407 | R +77.0 |
| Brooks County | 1,532 | 751 | 69 | 2,352 | D +33.2 |
| Mills County | 232 | 2,011 | 69 | 2,312 | R +76.9 |
| Parmer County | 327 | 1,884 | 68 | 2,279 | R +68.3 |
| Delta County | 363 | 1,824 | 67 | 2,254 | R +64.8 |
| Mason County | 404 | 1,724 | 66 | 2,194 | R +60.1 |
| Childress County | 244 | 1,792 | 62 | 2,098 | R +73.8 |
| Kimble County | 237 | 1,793 | 63 | 2,093 | R +74.3 |
| Lynn County | 317 | 1,710 | 61 | 2,088 | R +66.7 |
| Swisher County | 414 | 1,598 | 62 | 2,074 | R +57.1 |
| Haskell County | 302 | 1,662 | 60 | 2,024 | R +67.2 |
| Yoakum County | 283 | 1,678 | 60 | 2,021 | R +69.0 |
| La Salle County | 973 | 973 | 59 | 2,005 | Even |
| Wheeler County | 153 | 1,735 | 58 | 1,946 | R +81.3 |
| Presidio County | 1,409 | 430 | 57 | 1,896 | D +51.6 |
| Castro County | 378 | 1,418 | 55 | 1,851 | R +56.2 |
| Hartley County | 163 | 1,611 | 54 | 1,828 | R +79.2 |
| Floyd County | 307 | 1,385 | 52 | 1,744 | R +61.8 |
| Hansford County | 130 | 1,562 | 52 | 1,744 | R +82.1 |
| Winkler County | 281 | 1,403 | 52 | 1,736 | R +64.7 |
| Martin County | 221 | 1,457 | 52 | 1,730 | R +71.5 |
| Bailey County | 324 | 1,300 | 50 | 1,674 | R +58.3 |
| Crosby County | 413 | 1,132 | 47 | 1,592 | R +45.2 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,027 | 497 | 46 | 1,570 | D +33.7 |
| Real County | 232 | 1,286 | 47 | 1,565 | R +67.3 |
| Fisher County | 287 | 1,223 | 46 | 1,556 | R +60.2 |
| Coke County | 157 | 1,351 | 46 | 1,554 | R +76.8 |
| Baylor County | 160 | 1,284 | 44 | 1,488 | R +75.6 |
| Garza County | 224 | 1,214 | 44 | 1,482 | R +66.7 |
| Shackelford County | 125 | 1,275 | 44 | 1,444 | R +79.7 |
| Hemphill County | 176 | 1,218 | 42 | 1,436 | R +72.5 |
| Donley County | 146 | 1,233 | 41 | 1,420 | R +76.5 |
| Dallam County | 153 | 1,185 | 41 | 1,379 | R +74.9 |
| Kinney County | 342 | 915 | 39 | 1,296 | R +44.2 |
| Crockett County | 315 | 898 | 37 | 1,250 | R +46.6 |
| Crane County | 182 | 1,018 | 37 | 1,237 | R +67.6 |
| Sutton County | 223 | 971 | 36 | 1,230 | R +60.7 |
| Hardeman County | 172 | 1,006 | 36 | 1,214 | R +68.7 |
| Knox County | 193 | 950 | 35 | 1,178 | R +64.2 |
| Upton County | 140 | 966 | 34 | 1,140 | R +72.4 |
| Concho County | 166 | 922 | 34 | 1,122 | R +67.4 |
| Lipscomb County | 102 | 946 | 32 | 1,080 | R +78.2 |
| Jeff Davis County | 442 | 579 | 31 | 1,052 | R +12.9 |
| Collingsworth County | 120 | 877 | 31 | 1,028 | R +73.6 |
| Hall County | 136 | 859 | 30 | 1,025 | R +70.6 |
| Schleicher County | 191 | 788 | 31 | 1,010 | R +59.1 |
| Armstrong County | 73 | 859 | 28 | 960 | R +81.9 |
| Hudspeth County | 308 | 607 | 29 | 944 | R +31.7 |
| Menard County | 146 | 699 | 27 | 872 | R +63.5 |
| Dickens County | 122 | 693 | 24 | 839 | R +68.1 |
| Oldham County | 71 | 725 | 24 | 820 | R +79.7 |
| Reagan County | 130 | 665 | 25 | 820 | R +65.3 |
| Sherman County | 63 | 727 | 24 | 814 | R +81.6 |
| Throckmorton County | 66 | 668 | 22 | 756 | R +79.6 |
| Culberson County | 355 | 359 | 22 | 736 | R +0.6 |
| Cochran County | 126 | 587 | 22 | 735 | R +62.6 |
| Irion County | 88 | 598 | 20 | 706 | R +72.2 |
| Edwards County | 88 | 551 | 19 | 658 | R +70.3 |
| Briscoe County | 51 | 560 | 19 | 630 | R +80.8 |
| Stonewall County | 96 | 484 | 18 | 598 | R +65.0 |
| Motley County | 36 | 519 | 17 | 572 | R +84.4 |
| Cottle County | 82 | 466 | 18 | 566 | R +67.9 |
| Glasscock County | 33 | 500 | 16 | 549 | R +85.0 |
| Sterling County | 33 | 459 | 14 | 506 | R +84.1 |
| Foard County | 94 | 396 | 14 | 504 | R +59.8 |
| Roberts County | 12 | 404 | 13 | 429 | R +91.4 |
| Terrell County | 99 | 275 | 12 | 386 | R +45.5 |
| Kent County | 42 | 322 | 12 | 376 | R +74.7 |
| Borden County | 18 | 294 | 10 | 322 | R +85.9 |
| McMullen County | 25 | 238 | 9 | 272 | R +78.5 |
| King County | 5 | 101 | 4 | 110 | R +87.5 |
| Kenedy County | 23 | 41 | 2 | 66 | R +27.5 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +73.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.8 and R +7.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +0.9 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +0.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.8 and R +7.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Taylor | Messinger | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 45.5 | 54.5 | R +9.0 |