2026 forecast · Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2
James Sullivan is slightly favored to win Texas's justice, supreme court, place 2 race.
Chari Kelly vs James Sullivan, with James Sullivan running again. The model has Sullivan ahead by 2.7 points, with a 69 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +2.7Polls R +5.6Updated October 22, 2026
Chari Kelly
Democrat
47.2%
4,717,740 projected votes
James Sullivan
Republican
49.8%
4,983,773 projected votes
69%Sullivan
31%Kelly
Sullivan favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Sullivan wins about 69 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kelly +1,337,837 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide R +2.7, a 266,027 vote marginSullivan +1,603,864 net votes from 230 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| James Sullivan R | 4,983,773 | 49.8% |
| Chari Kelly D | 4,717,740 | 47.2% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Kelly | Sullivan | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,717,743 | 4,983,770 | 297,403 | 9,998,916 | R +2.7 |
| Harris County | 810,062 | 533,116 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +20.0 |
| Dallas County | 527,735 | 227,266 | 23,145 | 778,146 | D +38.6 |
| Tarrant County | 366,800 | 332,146 | 21,426 | 720,372 | D +4.8 |
| Bexar County | 417,748 | 246,877 | 20,374 | 684,999 | D +24.9 |
| Travis County | 420,107 | 114,460 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +55.5 |
| Collin County | 210,980 | 214,185 | 13,033 | 438,198 | R +0.7 |
| Denton County | 173,931 | 195,493 | 11,326 | 380,750 | R +5.7 |
| Fort Bend County | 167,988 | 129,899 | 9,131 | 307,018 | D +12.4 |
| Williamson County | 140,046 | 118,315 | 7,920 | 266,281 | D +8.2 |
| Montgomery County | 68,611 | 176,804 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +42.8 |
| El Paso County | 154,707 | 70,607 | 6,908 | 232,222 | D +36.2 |
| Hidalgo County | 116,250 | 73,655 | 5,821 | 195,726 | D +21.8 |
| Brazoria County | 54,077 | 77,602 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +17.3 |
| Galveston County | 51,116 | 79,762 | 4,012 | 134,890 | R +21.2 |
| Bell County | 50,596 | 60,683 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +8.8 |
| Nueces County | 54,211 | 55,015 | 3,349 | 112,575 | R +0.7 |
| Hays County | 62,528 | 43,882 | 3,263 | 109,673 | D +17.0 |
| Lubbock County | 34,547 | 70,918 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +33.5 |
| Cameron County | 59,449 | 43,429 | 3,153 | 106,031 | D +15.1 |
| Smith County | 24,327 | 63,052 | 2,678 | 90,057 | R +43.0 |
| McLennan County | 31,905 | 54,187 | 2,638 | 88,730 | R +25.1 |
| Comal County | 23,650 | 60,187 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +42.3 |
| Ellis County | 25,727 | 52,994 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +33.6 |
| Brazos County | 33,584 | 44,815 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +13.9 |
| Jefferson County | 36,863 | 37,824 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +1.3 |
| Parker County | 11,910 | 59,779 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +64.8 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,310 | 42,860 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +25.0 |
| Johnson County | 16,049 | 50,041 | 2,026 | 68,116 | R +49.9 |
| Webb County | 37,551 | 20,829 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +27.8 |
| Randall County | 11,313 | 44,337 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +57.6 |
| Kaufman County | 18,131 | 35,708 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +31.7 |
| Grayson County | 11,953 | 40,814 | 1,617 | 54,384 | R +53.1 |
| Rockwall County | 14,624 | 34,978 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +39.8 |
| Midland County | 9,999 | 39,370 | 1,514 | 50,883 | R +57.7 |
| Taylor County | 12,316 | 35,236 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +46.8 |
| Gregg County | 11,631 | 27,848 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +39.9 |
| Wichita County | 12,181 | 26,867 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +36.5 |
| Tom Green County | 10,740 | 27,999 | 1,188 | 39,927 | R +43.2 |
| Hunt County | 7,897 | 29,391 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +55.9 |
| Ector County | 8,835 | 26,118 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +48.0 |
| Bastrop County | 15,226 | 18,955 | 1,047 | 35,228 | R +10.6 |
| Henderson County | 5,728 | 26,681 | 993 | 33,402 | R +62.7 |
| Bowie County | 8,677 | 22,652 | 961 | 32,290 | R +43.3 |
| Hood County | 5,414 | 24,768 | 925 | 31,107 | R +62.2 |
| Victoria County | 8,836 | 21,099 | 918 | 30,853 | R +39.8 |
| Orange County | 4,885 | 24,908 | 913 | 30,706 | R +65.2 |
| Wise County | 4,194 | 25,550 | 912 | 30,656 | R +69.7 |
| Angelina County | 7,263 | 21,617 | 886 | 29,766 | R +48.2 |
| Potter County | 8,767 | 19,883 | 878 | 29,528 | R +37.6 |
| Liberty County | 4,691 | 20,861 | 783 | 26,335 | R +61.4 |
| Harrison County | 6,165 | 18,708 | 763 | 25,636 | R +48.9 |
| Kerr County | 5,590 | 18,762 | 747 | 25,099 | R +52.5 |
| Kendall County | 5,127 | 18,946 | 738 | 24,811 | R +55.7 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,884 | 20,669 | 722 | 24,275 | R +73.3 |
| Walker County | 7,444 | 16,022 | 720 | 24,186 | R +35.5 |
| Burnet County | 5,272 | 17,927 | 711 | 23,910 | R +52.9 |
| Hardin County | 2,707 | 20,074 | 699 | 23,480 | R +74.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,052 | 15,026 | 677 | 22,755 | R +35.0 |
| Coryell County | 6,971 | 15,047 | 676 | 22,694 | R +35.6 |
| Wilson County | 5,283 | 16,605 | 670 | 22,558 | R +50.2 |
| San Patricio County | 7,613 | 14,033 | 663 | 22,309 | R +28.8 |
| Waller County | 7,647 | 13,288 | 641 | 21,576 | R +26.1 |
| Wood County | 2,900 | 17,555 | 628 | 21,083 | R +69.5 |
| Medina County | 5,833 | 14,363 | 619 | 20,815 | R +41.0 |
| Polk County | 4,155 | 15,630 | 607 | 20,392 | R +56.3 |
| Chambers County | 3,149 | 15,677 | 578 | 19,404 | R +64.6 |
| Rusk County | 3,666 | 14,636 | 561 | 18,863 | R +58.1 |
| Lamar County | 3,557 | 14,476 | 553 | 18,586 | R +58.8 |
| Anderson County | 3,453 | 14,214 | 541 | 18,208 | R +59.1 |
| Cherokee County | 3,140 | 14,017 | 527 | 17,684 | R +61.5 |
| Cooke County | 2,625 | 14,338 | 519 | 17,482 | R +67.0 |
| Navarro County | 4,071 | 12,632 | 513 | 17,216 | R +49.7 |
| Upshur County | 2,374 | 13,942 | 500 | 16,816 | R +68.8 |
| Erath County | 2,591 | 13,016 | 477 | 16,084 | R +64.8 |
| Washington County | 3,348 | 12,089 | 474 | 15,911 | R +54.9 |
| Atascosa County | 4,780 | 10,573 | 471 | 15,824 | R +36.6 |
| Brown County | 1,812 | 12,541 | 439 | 14,792 | R +72.5 |
| Caldwell County | 6,711 | 7,379 | 432 | 14,522 | R +4.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,730 | 11,319 | 430 | 14,479 | R +59.3 |
| Wharton County | 3,532 | 10,478 | 430 | 14,440 | R +48.1 |
| Starr County | 8,441 | 5,485 | 428 | 14,354 | D +20.6 |
| Hopkins County | 2,675 | 11,178 | 425 | 14,278 | R +59.5 |
| Fannin County | 2,118 | 11,478 | 416 | 14,012 | R +66.8 |
| Hill County | 2,406 | 11,173 | 417 | 13,996 | R +62.6 |
| Jasper County | 2,091 | 10,847 | 396 | 13,334 | R +65.7 |
| Maverick County | 7,334 | 5,460 | 392 | 13,186 | D +14.2 |
| Austin County | 2,260 | 10,292 | 385 | 12,937 | R +62.1 |
| Val Verde County | 5,557 | 6,859 | 380 | 12,796 | R +10.2 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,701 | 6,019 | 360 | 12,080 | R +2.6 |
| Llano County | 2,294 | 9,407 | 359 | 12,060 | R +59.0 |
| Cass County | 1,965 | 9,581 | 354 | 11,900 | R +64.0 |
| Matagorda County | 2,948 | 8,480 | 350 | 11,778 | R +47.0 |
| Grimes County | 2,111 | 9,228 | 347 | 11,686 | R +60.9 |
| Fayette County | 2,116 | 9,191 | 347 | 11,654 | R +60.7 |
| Bandera County | 2,066 | 9,171 | 345 | 11,582 | R +61.3 |
| Aransas County | 2,378 | 8,645 | 338 | 11,361 | R +55.2 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,665 | 9,303 | 337 | 11,305 | R +67.6 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,968 | 8,811 | 331 | 11,110 | R +61.6 |
| Milam County | 2,138 | 7,315 | 289 | 9,742 | R +53.1 |
| Lampasas County | 1,851 | 7,479 | 286 | 9,616 | R +58.5 |
| Panola County | 1,533 | 7,794 | 286 | 9,613 | R +65.1 |
| Kleberg County | 4,577 | 4,699 | 284 | 9,560 | R +1.3 |
| Montague County | 922 | 8,014 | 273 | 9,209 | R +77.0 |
| Lavaca County | 1,032 | 7,817 | 271 | 9,120 | R +74.4 |
| Titus County | 1,949 | 6,730 | 267 | 8,946 | R +53.5 |
| Uvalde County | 3,353 | 5,229 | 262 | 8,844 | R +21.2 |
| Howard County | 1,742 | 6,693 | 259 | 8,694 | R +57.0 |
| Bee County | 2,833 | 5,543 | 257 | 8,633 | R +31.4 |
| Colorado County | 1,767 | 6,586 | 256 | 8,609 | R +56.0 |
| Hale County | 1,730 | 6,479 | 252 | 8,461 | R +56.1 |
| Shelby County | 1,445 | 6,754 | 251 | 8,450 | R +62.8 |
| Houston County | 1,776 | 6,356 | 250 | 8,382 | R +54.6 |
| Tyler County | 1,059 | 7,071 | 249 | 8,379 | R +71.8 |
| Bosque County | 1,358 | 6,711 | 247 | 8,316 | R +64.4 |
| Limestone County | 1,767 | 6,027 | 239 | 8,033 | R +53.0 |
| Burleson County | 1,304 | 6,301 | 233 | 7,838 | R +63.8 |
| Freestone County | 1,217 | 6,334 | 232 | 7,783 | R +65.7 |
| Leon County | 742 | 6,671 | 227 | 7,640 | R +77.6 |
| Lee County | 1,364 | 5,666 | 216 | 7,246 | R +59.4 |
| Eastland County | 800 | 6,207 | 215 | 7,222 | R +74.9 |
| Young County | 804 | 6,185 | 215 | 7,204 | R +74.7 |
| Hutchinson County | 718 | 6,266 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.1 |
| Blanco County | 1,654 | 5,236 | 212 | 7,102 | R +50.4 |
| DeWitt County | 1,178 | 5,689 | 211 | 7,078 | R +63.8 |
| Robertson County | 1,710 | 5,009 | 206 | 6,925 | R +47.6 |
| Calhoun County | 1,709 | 4,951 | 204 | 6,864 | R +47.2 |
| Hockley County | 1,130 | 5,508 | 204 | 6,842 | R +64.0 |
| Gray County | 617 | 5,959 | 201 | 6,777 | R +78.8 |
| Gonzales County | 1,417 | 5,007 | 197 | 6,621 | R +54.2 |
| Jones County | 874 | 5,384 | 192 | 6,450 | R +69.9 |
| Trinity County | 1,031 | 5,050 | 187 | 6,268 | R +64.1 |
| Callahan County | 602 | 5,288 | 181 | 6,071 | R +77.2 |
| Falls County | 1,560 | 3,990 | 170 | 5,720 | R +42.5 |
| Rains County | 727 | 4,788 | 169 | 5,684 | R +71.5 |
| Comanche County | 704 | 4,712 | 167 | 5,583 | R +71.8 |
| Jackson County | 788 | 4,566 | 164 | 5,518 | R +68.5 |
| Willacy County | 3,060 | 2,126 | 159 | 5,345 | D +17.5 |
| Gaines County | 401 | 4,608 | 153 | 5,162 | R +81.5 |
| Scurry County | 632 | 4,313 | 152 | 5,097 | R +72.2 |
| Clay County | 511 | 4,390 | 150 | 5,051 | R +76.8 |
| Newton County | 868 | 4,012 | 150 | 5,030 | R +62.5 |
| Andrews County | 639 | 4,211 | 149 | 4,999 | R +71.5 |
| Red River County | 958 | 3,835 | 147 | 4,940 | R +58.2 |
| Sabine County | 497 | 4,193 | 144 | 4,834 | R +76.5 |
| Karnes County | 1,069 | 3,542 | 141 | 4,752 | R +52.0 |
| Frio County | 2,317 | 2,272 | 141 | 4,730 | D +0.9 |
| Madison County | 821 | 3,767 | 141 | 4,729 | R +62.3 |
| Morris County | 1,166 | 3,360 | 138 | 4,664 | R +47.0 |
| Nolan County | 901 | 3,602 | 138 | 4,641 | R +58.2 |
| Moore County | 740 | 3,732 | 137 | 4,609 | R +64.9 |
| Camp County | 1,032 | 3,400 | 136 | 4,568 | R +51.9 |
| Franklin County | 668 | 3,724 | 134 | 4,526 | R +67.5 |
| Live Oak County | 662 | 3,689 | 134 | 4,485 | R +67.5 |
| Somervell County | 702 | 3,641 | 133 | 4,476 | R +65.6 |
| Archer County | 402 | 3,776 | 128 | 4,306 | R +78.4 |
| Brewster County | 2,103 | 2,017 | 126 | 4,246 | D +2.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,278 | 2,763 | 123 | 4,164 | R +35.7 |
| Wilbarger County | 781 | 3,132 | 119 | 4,032 | R +58.3 |
| Zapata County | 2,148 | 1,755 | 119 | 4,022 | D +9.8 |
| Marion County | 967 | 2,930 | 120 | 4,017 | R +48.9 |
| Deaf Smith County | 935 | 2,902 | 117 | 3,954 | R +49.7 |
| Duval County | 2,277 | 1,544 | 117 | 3,938 | D +18.6 |
| Hamilton County | 546 | 3,184 | 114 | 3,844 | R +68.6 |
| Lamb County | 631 | 2,960 | 110 | 3,701 | R +62.9 |
| Runnels County | 386 | 3,165 | 109 | 3,660 | R +75.9 |
| Coleman County | 353 | 3,147 | 108 | 3,608 | R +77.4 |
| Goliad County | 721 | 2,700 | 105 | 3,526 | R +56.1 |
| Jack County | 279 | 3,134 | 105 | 3,518 | R +81.2 |
| Stephens County | 272 | 2,979 | 100 | 3,351 | R +80.8 |
| San Augustine County | 711 | 2,488 | 97 | 3,296 | R +53.9 |
| Dawson County | 624 | 2,501 | 95 | 3,220 | R +58.3 |
| Ward County | 579 | 2,490 | 93 | 3,162 | R +60.4 |
| Terry County | 540 | 2,508 | 94 | 3,142 | R +62.6 |
| Dimmit County | 1,977 | 1,054 | 93 | 3,124 | D +29.5 |
| Zavala County | 2,091 | 885 | 92 | 3,068 | D +39.3 |
| McCulloch County | 399 | 2,518 | 89 | 3,006 | R +70.5 |
| Reeves County | 1,267 | 1,649 | 89 | 3,005 | R +12.7 |
| Carson County | 242 | 2,365 | 79 | 2,686 | R +79.0 |
| Refugio County | 803 | 1,783 | 79 | 2,665 | R +36.8 |
| Ochiltree County | 222 | 2,281 | 77 | 2,580 | R +79.8 |
| Mitchell County | 319 | 2,033 | 72 | 2,424 | R +70.7 |
| San Saba County | 232 | 2,104 | 71 | 2,407 | R +77.8 |
| Brooks County | 1,512 | 771 | 69 | 2,352 | D +31.5 |
| Mills County | 222 | 2,021 | 69 | 2,312 | R +77.8 |
| Parmer County | 315 | 1,897 | 67 | 2,279 | R +69.4 |
| Delta County | 349 | 1,838 | 67 | 2,254 | R +66.0 |
| Mason County | 389 | 1,739 | 66 | 2,194 | R +61.5 |
| Childress County | 234 | 1,802 | 62 | 2,098 | R +74.7 |
| Kimble County | 227 | 1,803 | 63 | 2,093 | R +75.3 |
| Lynn County | 304 | 1,722 | 62 | 2,088 | R +67.9 |
| Swisher County | 399 | 1,613 | 62 | 2,074 | R +58.5 |
| Haskell County | 290 | 1,674 | 60 | 2,024 | R +68.4 |
| Yoakum County | 272 | 1,689 | 60 | 2,021 | R +70.1 |
| La Salle County | 953 | 993 | 59 | 2,005 | R +2.0 |
| Wheeler County | 147 | 1,742 | 57 | 1,946 | R +82.0 |
| Presidio County | 1,396 | 443 | 57 | 1,896 | D +50.3 |
| Castro County | 365 | 1,431 | 55 | 1,851 | R +57.6 |
| Hartley County | 156 | 1,618 | 54 | 1,828 | R +79.9 |
| Floyd County | 295 | 1,396 | 53 | 1,744 | R +63.1 |
| Hansford County | 124 | 1,568 | 52 | 1,744 | R +82.8 |
| Winkler County | 271 | 1,413 | 52 | 1,736 | R +65.8 |
| Martin County | 212 | 1,466 | 52 | 1,730 | R +72.5 |
| Bailey County | 313 | 1,312 | 49 | 1,674 | R +59.6 |
| Crosby County | 399 | 1,145 | 48 | 1,592 | R +46.9 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,013 | 510 | 47 | 1,570 | D +32.0 |
| Real County | 223 | 1,295 | 47 | 1,565 | R +68.5 |
| Fisher County | 276 | 1,234 | 46 | 1,556 | R +61.5 |
| Coke County | 150 | 1,358 | 46 | 1,554 | R +77.7 |
| Baylor County | 153 | 1,291 | 44 | 1,488 | R +76.5 |
| Garza County | 216 | 1,222 | 44 | 1,482 | R +67.9 |
| Shackelford County | 120 | 1,281 | 43 | 1,444 | R +80.4 |
| Hemphill County | 169 | 1,225 | 42 | 1,436 | R +73.5 |
| Donley County | 140 | 1,239 | 41 | 1,420 | R +77.4 |
| Dallam County | 147 | 1,191 | 41 | 1,379 | R +75.7 |
| Kinney County | 332 | 925 | 39 | 1,296 | R +45.8 |
| Crockett County | 304 | 908 | 38 | 1,250 | R +48.3 |
| Crane County | 175 | 1,025 | 37 | 1,237 | R +68.7 |
| Sutton County | 215 | 979 | 36 | 1,230 | R +62.1 |
| Hardeman County | 166 | 1,013 | 35 | 1,214 | R +69.8 |
| Knox County | 186 | 957 | 35 | 1,178 | R +65.5 |
| Upton County | 134 | 971 | 35 | 1,140 | R +73.4 |
| Concho County | 160 | 929 | 33 | 1,122 | R +68.5 |
| Lipscomb County | 97 | 951 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.0 |
| Jeff Davis County | 432 | 589 | 31 | 1,052 | R +14.9 |
| Collingsworth County | 115 | 882 | 31 | 1,028 | R +74.6 |
| Hall County | 130 | 864 | 31 | 1,025 | R +71.6 |
| Schleicher County | 185 | 795 | 30 | 1,010 | R +60.5 |
| Armstrong County | 69 | 863 | 28 | 960 | R +82.6 |
| Hudspeth County | 300 | 616 | 28 | 944 | R +33.5 |
| Menard County | 141 | 705 | 26 | 872 | R +64.7 |
| Dickens County | 117 | 697 | 25 | 839 | R +69.2 |
| Oldham County | 68 | 728 | 24 | 820 | R +80.5 |
| Reagan County | 125 | 670 | 25 | 820 | R +66.5 |
| Sherman County | 60 | 730 | 24 | 814 | R +82.3 |
| Throckmorton County | 63 | 671 | 22 | 756 | R +80.3 |
| Culberson County | 348 | 367 | 21 | 736 | R +2.5 |
| Cochran County | 122 | 591 | 22 | 735 | R +63.9 |
| Irion County | 84 | 601 | 21 | 706 | R +73.2 |
| Edwards County | 85 | 554 | 19 | 658 | R +71.3 |
| Briscoe County | 49 | 562 | 19 | 630 | R +81.5 |
| Stonewall County | 92 | 488 | 18 | 598 | R +66.2 |
| Motley County | 34 | 521 | 17 | 572 | R +85.0 |
| Cottle County | 79 | 469 | 18 | 566 | R +69.0 |
| Glasscock County | 32 | 501 | 16 | 549 | R +85.5 |
| Sterling County | 31 | 460 | 15 | 506 | R +84.7 |
| Foard County | 91 | 399 | 14 | 504 | R +61.1 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.7 |
| Terrell County | 96 | 278 | 12 | 386 | R +47.2 |
| Kent County | 40 | 324 | 12 | 376 | R +75.6 |
| Borden County | 17 | 295 | 10 | 322 | R +86.4 |
| McMullen County | 24 | 239 | 9 | 272 | R +79.3 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.0 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +29.4 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +74.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +4.1 and R +9.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.1 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +2.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +4.1 and R +9.4.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kelly | Sullivan | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 47.2 | 52.8 | R +5.6 |