2026 forecast · Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 3
Thomas Smith is slightly favored to win Texas's judge, court of criminal appeals, place 3 race.
Okey Anyiam vs Thomas Smith, an open seat. The model has Smith ahead by 1.8 points, with a 63 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +1.8Polls R +13.6Updated October 22, 2026
Okey Anyiam
Democrat
46.9%
4,687,403 projected votes
Thomas Smith
Republican
48.6%
4,864,126 projected votes
63%Smith
37%Anyiam
Smith slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Smith wins about 63 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Anyiam +1,365,837 net votes from 26 countiesStatewide R +1.8, a 176,719 vote marginSmith +1,542,556 net votes from 228 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Smith R | 4,864,126 | 48.6% |
| Okey Anyiam D | 4,687,403 | 46.9% |
| Mark Ash | 447,394 | 4.5% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Anyiam | Smith | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,687,409 | 4,864,128 | 447,379 | 9,998,916 | R +1.8 |
| Harris County | 803,804 | 518,609 | 61,941 | 1,384,354 | D +20.6 |
| Dallas County | 522,612 | 220,717 | 34,817 | 778,146 | D +38.8 |
| Tarrant County | 364,615 | 323,525 | 32,232 | 720,372 | D +5.7 |
| Bexar County | 414,310 | 240,040 | 30,649 | 684,999 | D +25.4 |
| Travis County | 415,344 | 110,959 | 24,652 | 550,955 | D +55.3 |
| Collin County | 209,878 | 208,713 | 19,607 | 438,198 | D +0.3 |
| Denton County | 173,123 | 190,591 | 17,036 | 380,750 | R +4.6 |
| Fort Bend County | 166,848 | 126,433 | 13,737 | 307,018 | D +13.2 |
| Williamson County | 139,165 | 115,201 | 11,915 | 266,281 | D +9.0 |
| Montgomery County | 68,639 | 172,982 | 11,317 | 252,938 | R +41.3 |
| El Paso County | 153,236 | 68,596 | 10,390 | 232,222 | D +36.5 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,321 | 71,647 | 8,758 | 195,726 | D +22.3 |
| Brazoria County | 53,900 | 75,743 | 6,073 | 135,716 | R +16.1 |
| Galveston County | 50,983 | 77,871 | 6,036 | 134,890 | R +19.9 |
| Bell County | 50,373 | 59,185 | 5,132 | 114,690 | R +7.7 |
| Nueces County | 53,919 | 53,619 | 5,037 | 112,575 | D +0.3 |
| Hays County | 62,072 | 42,694 | 4,907 | 109,673 | D +17.7 |
| Lubbock County | 34,511 | 69,324 | 4,863 | 108,698 | R +32.0 |
| Cameron County | 59,021 | 42,266 | 4,744 | 106,031 | D +15.8 |
| Smith County | 24,334 | 61,694 | 4,029 | 90,057 | R +41.5 |
| McLennan County | 31,831 | 52,929 | 3,970 | 88,730 | R +23.8 |
| Comal County | 23,662 | 58,879 | 3,866 | 86,407 | R +40.8 |
| Ellis County | 25,700 | 51,804 | 3,630 | 81,134 | R +32.2 |
| Brazos County | 33,460 | 43,728 | 3,614 | 80,802 | R +12.7 |
| Jefferson County | 36,668 | 36,864 | 3,444 | 76,976 | R +0.3 |
| Parker County | 11,959 | 58,622 | 3,306 | 73,887 | R +63.2 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,257 | 41,859 | 3,144 | 70,260 | R +23.6 |
| Johnson County | 16,069 | 48,999 | 3,048 | 68,116 | R +48.4 |
| Webb County | 37,227 | 20,250 | 2,693 | 60,170 | D +28.2 |
| Randall County | 11,342 | 43,448 | 2,566 | 57,356 | R +56.0 |
| Kaufman County | 18,106 | 34,901 | 2,483 | 55,490 | R +30.3 |
| Grayson County | 11,974 | 39,976 | 2,434 | 54,384 | R +51.5 |
| Rockwall County | 14,624 | 34,210 | 2,288 | 51,122 | R +38.3 |
| Midland County | 10,024 | 38,582 | 2,277 | 50,883 | R +56.1 |
| Taylor County | 12,324 | 34,493 | 2,193 | 49,010 | R +45.2 |
| Gregg County | 11,627 | 27,241 | 1,821 | 40,689 | R +38.4 |
| Wichita County | 12,171 | 26,274 | 1,800 | 40,245 | R +35.0 |
| Tom Green County | 10,743 | 27,397 | 1,787 | 39,927 | R +41.7 |
| Hunt County | 7,915 | 28,797 | 1,719 | 38,431 | R +54.3 |
| Ector County | 8,842 | 25,570 | 1,612 | 36,024 | R +46.4 |
| Bastrop County | 15,163 | 18,490 | 1,575 | 35,228 | R +9.4 |
| Henderson County | 5,746 | 26,162 | 1,494 | 33,402 | R +61.1 |
| Bowie County | 8,680 | 22,165 | 1,445 | 32,290 | R +41.8 |
| Hood County | 5,433 | 24,282 | 1,392 | 31,107 | R +60.6 |
| Victoria County | 8,834 | 20,638 | 1,381 | 30,853 | R +38.3 |
| Orange County | 4,903 | 24,430 | 1,373 | 30,706 | R +63.6 |
| Wise County | 4,215 | 25,070 | 1,371 | 30,656 | R +68.0 |
| Angelina County | 7,270 | 21,163 | 1,333 | 29,766 | R +46.7 |
| Potter County | 8,759 | 19,447 | 1,322 | 29,528 | R +36.2 |
| Liberty County | 4,704 | 20,453 | 1,178 | 26,335 | R +59.8 |
| Harrison County | 6,173 | 18,316 | 1,147 | 25,636 | R +47.4 |
| Kerr County | 5,599 | 18,377 | 1,123 | 25,099 | R +50.9 |
| Kendall County | 5,139 | 18,561 | 1,111 | 24,811 | R +54.1 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,898 | 20,291 | 1,086 | 24,275 | R +71.7 |
| Walker County | 7,434 | 15,670 | 1,082 | 24,186 | R +34.0 |
| Burnet County | 5,282 | 17,558 | 1,070 | 23,910 | R +51.3 |
| Hardin County | 2,722 | 19,707 | 1,051 | 23,480 | R +72.3 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,045 | 14,692 | 1,018 | 22,755 | R +33.6 |
| Coryell County | 6,961 | 14,717 | 1,016 | 22,694 | R +34.2 |
| Wilson County | 5,292 | 16,257 | 1,009 | 22,558 | R +48.6 |
| San Patricio County | 7,600 | 13,711 | 998 | 22,309 | R +27.4 |
| Waller County | 7,631 | 12,980 | 965 | 21,576 | R +24.8 |
| Wood County | 2,913 | 17,226 | 944 | 21,083 | R +67.9 |
| Medina County | 5,833 | 14,051 | 931 | 20,815 | R +39.5 |
| Polk County | 4,165 | 15,315 | 912 | 20,392 | R +54.7 |
| Chambers County | 3,163 | 15,373 | 868 | 19,404 | R +62.9 |
| Rusk County | 3,675 | 14,344 | 844 | 18,863 | R +56.6 |
| Lamar County | 3,566 | 14,188 | 832 | 18,586 | R +57.1 |
| Anderson County | 3,460 | 13,933 | 815 | 18,208 | R +57.5 |
| Cherokee County | 3,150 | 13,742 | 792 | 17,684 | R +59.9 |
| Cooke County | 2,635 | 14,065 | 782 | 17,482 | R +65.4 |
| Navarro County | 4,076 | 12,370 | 770 | 17,216 | R +48.2 |
| Upshur County | 2,385 | 13,680 | 751 | 16,816 | R +67.2 |
| Erath County | 2,600 | 12,765 | 719 | 16,084 | R +63.2 |
| Washington County | 3,355 | 11,844 | 712 | 15,911 | R +53.4 |
| Atascosa County | 4,777 | 10,339 | 708 | 15,824 | R +35.1 |
| Brown County | 1,820 | 12,310 | 662 | 14,792 | R +70.9 |
| Caldwell County | 6,677 | 7,195 | 650 | 14,522 | R +3.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,738 | 11,094 | 647 | 14,479 | R +57.7 |
| Wharton County | 3,536 | 10,258 | 646 | 14,440 | R +46.5 |
| Starr County | 8,376 | 5,335 | 643 | 14,354 | D +21.2 |
| Hopkins County | 2,683 | 10,956 | 639 | 14,278 | R +57.9 |
| Fannin County | 2,126 | 11,260 | 626 | 14,012 | R +65.2 |
| Hill County | 2,415 | 10,955 | 626 | 13,996 | R +61.0 |
| Jasper County | 2,099 | 10,638 | 597 | 13,334 | R +64.0 |
| Maverick County | 7,283 | 5,313 | 590 | 13,186 | D +14.9 |
| Austin County | 2,268 | 10,090 | 579 | 12,937 | R +60.5 |
| Val Verde County | 5,534 | 6,690 | 572 | 12,796 | R +9.0 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,672 | 5,867 | 541 | 12,080 | R +1.6 |
| Llano County | 2,301 | 9,220 | 539 | 12,060 | R +57.4 |
| Cass County | 1,972 | 9,395 | 533 | 11,900 | R +62.4 |
| Matagorda County | 2,951 | 8,301 | 526 | 11,778 | R +45.4 |
| Grimes County | 2,118 | 9,046 | 522 | 11,686 | R +59.3 |
| Fayette County | 2,122 | 9,010 | 522 | 11,654 | R +59.1 |
| Bandera County | 2,073 | 8,991 | 518 | 11,582 | R +59.7 |
| Aransas County | 2,383 | 8,470 | 508 | 11,361 | R +53.6 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,672 | 9,127 | 506 | 11,305 | R +65.9 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,974 | 8,639 | 497 | 11,110 | R +60.0 |
| Milam County | 2,142 | 7,165 | 435 | 9,742 | R +51.5 |
| Lampasas County | 1,856 | 7,330 | 430 | 9,616 | R +56.9 |
| Panola County | 1,539 | 7,644 | 430 | 9,613 | R +63.5 |
| Kleberg County | 4,552 | 4,580 | 428 | 9,560 | R +0.3 |
| Montague County | 927 | 7,870 | 412 | 9,209 | R +75.4 |
| Lavaca County | 1,038 | 7,674 | 408 | 9,120 | R +72.8 |
| Titus County | 1,952 | 6,593 | 401 | 8,946 | R +51.9 |
| Uvalde County | 3,344 | 5,105 | 395 | 8,844 | R +19.9 |
| Howard County | 1,746 | 6,559 | 389 | 8,694 | R +55.4 |
| Bee County | 2,828 | 5,419 | 386 | 8,633 | R +30.0 |
| Colorado County | 1,771 | 6,453 | 385 | 8,609 | R +54.4 |
| Hale County | 1,733 | 6,349 | 379 | 8,461 | R +54.5 |
| Shelby County | 1,450 | 6,622 | 378 | 8,450 | R +61.2 |
| Houston County | 1,780 | 6,227 | 375 | 8,382 | R +53.1 |
| Tyler County | 1,064 | 6,940 | 375 | 8,379 | R +70.1 |
| Bosque County | 1,363 | 6,582 | 371 | 8,316 | R +62.8 |
| Limestone County | 1,770 | 5,903 | 360 | 8,033 | R +51.5 |
| Burleson County | 1,309 | 6,179 | 350 | 7,838 | R +62.1 |
| Freestone County | 1,222 | 6,213 | 348 | 7,783 | R +64.1 |
| Leon County | 747 | 6,551 | 342 | 7,640 | R +76.0 |
| Lee County | 1,368 | 5,554 | 324 | 7,246 | R +57.8 |
| Eastland County | 804 | 6,095 | 323 | 7,222 | R +73.3 |
| Young County | 809 | 6,073 | 322 | 7,204 | R +73.1 |
| Hutchinson County | 722 | 6,154 | 322 | 7,198 | R +75.5 |
| Blanco County | 1,657 | 5,127 | 318 | 7,102 | R +48.9 |
| DeWitt County | 1,182 | 5,579 | 317 | 7,078 | R +62.1 |
| Robertson County | 1,712 | 4,903 | 310 | 6,925 | R +46.1 |
| Calhoun County | 1,710 | 4,847 | 307 | 6,864 | R +45.7 |
| Hockley County | 1,134 | 5,402 | 306 | 6,842 | R +62.4 |
| Gray County | 620 | 5,854 | 303 | 6,777 | R +77.2 |
| Gonzales County | 1,419 | 4,905 | 297 | 6,621 | R +52.6 |
| Jones County | 878 | 5,284 | 288 | 6,450 | R +68.3 |
| Trinity County | 1,035 | 4,952 | 281 | 6,268 | R +62.5 |
| Callahan County | 605 | 5,194 | 272 | 6,071 | R +75.6 |
| Falls County | 1,560 | 3,904 | 256 | 5,720 | R +41.0 |
| Rains County | 730 | 4,700 | 254 | 5,684 | R +69.8 |
| Comanche County | 708 | 4,625 | 250 | 5,583 | R +70.2 |
| Jackson County | 792 | 4,479 | 247 | 5,518 | R +66.8 |
| Willacy County | 3,036 | 2,069 | 240 | 5,345 | D +18.1 |
| Gaines County | 404 | 4,528 | 230 | 5,162 | R +79.9 |
| Scurry County | 635 | 4,234 | 228 | 5,097 | R +70.6 |
| Clay County | 514 | 4,311 | 226 | 5,051 | R +75.2 |
| Newton County | 871 | 3,933 | 226 | 5,030 | R +60.9 |
| Andrews County | 642 | 4,133 | 224 | 4,999 | R +69.8 |
| Red River County | 961 | 3,758 | 221 | 4,940 | R +56.6 |
| Sabine County | 500 | 4,118 | 216 | 4,834 | R +74.8 |
| Karnes County | 1,070 | 3,470 | 212 | 4,752 | R +50.5 |
| Frio County | 2,304 | 2,214 | 212 | 4,730 | D +1.9 |
| Madison County | 824 | 3,694 | 211 | 4,729 | R +60.7 |
| Morris County | 1,167 | 3,289 | 208 | 4,664 | R +45.5 |
| Nolan County | 903 | 3,530 | 208 | 4,641 | R +56.6 |
| Moore County | 742 | 3,660 | 207 | 4,609 | R +63.3 |
| Camp County | 1,033 | 3,330 | 205 | 4,568 | R +50.3 |
| Franklin County | 671 | 3,653 | 202 | 4,526 | R +65.9 |
| Live Oak County | 665 | 3,619 | 201 | 4,485 | R +65.9 |
| Somervell County | 705 | 3,571 | 200 | 4,476 | R +64.0 |
| Archer County | 404 | 3,709 | 193 | 4,306 | R +76.8 |
| Brewster County | 2,092 | 1,965 | 189 | 4,246 | D +3.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,276 | 2,702 | 186 | 4,164 | R +34.2 |
| Wilbarger County | 783 | 3,069 | 180 | 4,032 | R +56.7 |
| Zapata County | 2,134 | 1,709 | 179 | 4,022 | D +10.6 |
| Marion County | 968 | 2,869 | 180 | 4,017 | R +47.3 |
| Deaf Smith County | 936 | 2,842 | 176 | 3,954 | R +48.2 |
| Duval County | 2,260 | 1,502 | 176 | 3,938 | D +19.3 |
| Hamilton County | 548 | 3,123 | 173 | 3,844 | R +67.0 |
| Lamb County | 633 | 2,902 | 166 | 3,701 | R +61.3 |
| Runnels County | 388 | 3,108 | 164 | 3,660 | R +74.3 |
| Coleman County | 355 | 3,091 | 162 | 3,608 | R +75.8 |
| Goliad County | 723 | 2,646 | 157 | 3,526 | R +54.5 |
| Jack County | 281 | 3,079 | 158 | 3,518 | R +79.5 |
| Stephens County | 274 | 2,927 | 150 | 3,351 | R +79.2 |
| San Augustine County | 712 | 2,437 | 147 | 3,296 | R +52.3 |
| Dawson County | 625 | 2,451 | 144 | 3,220 | R +56.7 |
| Ward County | 581 | 2,440 | 141 | 3,162 | R +58.8 |
| Terry County | 542 | 2,460 | 140 | 3,142 | R +61.0 |
| Dimmit County | 1,960 | 1,024 | 140 | 3,124 | D +29.9 |
| Zavala County | 2,071 | 859 | 138 | 3,068 | D +39.5 |
| McCulloch County | 400 | 2,471 | 135 | 3,006 | R +68.9 |
| Reeves County | 1,262 | 1,609 | 134 | 3,005 | R +11.5 |
| Carson County | 243 | 2,323 | 120 | 2,686 | R +77.4 |
| Refugio County | 803 | 1,743 | 119 | 2,665 | R +35.3 |
| Ochiltree County | 224 | 2,241 | 115 | 2,580 | R +78.2 |
| Mitchell County | 320 | 1,996 | 108 | 2,424 | R +69.2 |
| San Saba County | 233 | 2,066 | 108 | 2,407 | R +76.2 |
| Brooks County | 1,498 | 749 | 105 | 2,352 | D +31.9 |
| Mills County | 224 | 1,985 | 103 | 2,312 | R +76.2 |
| Parmer County | 316 | 1,861 | 102 | 2,279 | R +67.8 |
| Delta County | 351 | 1,803 | 100 | 2,254 | R +64.4 |
| Mason County | 391 | 1,705 | 98 | 2,194 | R +59.9 |
| Childress County | 235 | 1,769 | 94 | 2,098 | R +73.1 |
| Kimble County | 229 | 1,771 | 93 | 2,093 | R +73.7 |
| Lynn County | 306 | 1,689 | 93 | 2,088 | R +66.3 |
| Swisher County | 400 | 1,581 | 93 | 2,074 | R +56.9 |
| Haskell County | 291 | 1,642 | 91 | 2,024 | R +66.8 |
| Yoakum County | 273 | 1,657 | 91 | 2,021 | R +68.5 |
| La Salle County | 948 | 967 | 90 | 2,005 | R +1.0 |
| Wheeler County | 148 | 1,712 | 86 | 1,946 | R +80.4 |
| Presidio County | 1,381 | 430 | 85 | 1,896 | D +50.2 |
| Castro County | 366 | 1,402 | 83 | 1,851 | R +56.0 |
| Hartley County | 157 | 1,589 | 82 | 1,828 | R +78.3 |
| Floyd County | 296 | 1,369 | 79 | 1,744 | R +61.5 |
| Hansford County | 125 | 1,541 | 78 | 1,744 | R +81.2 |
| Winkler County | 271 | 1,386 | 79 | 1,736 | R +64.2 |
| Martin County | 213 | 1,439 | 78 | 1,730 | R +70.9 |
| Bailey County | 314 | 1,286 | 74 | 1,674 | R +58.1 |
| Crosby County | 400 | 1,121 | 71 | 1,592 | R +45.3 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,004 | 496 | 70 | 1,570 | D +32.4 |
| Real County | 224 | 1,271 | 70 | 1,565 | R +66.9 |
| Fisher County | 277 | 1,209 | 70 | 1,556 | R +59.9 |
| Coke County | 151 | 1,334 | 69 | 1,554 | R +76.1 |
| Baylor County | 154 | 1,268 | 66 | 1,488 | R +74.8 |
| Garza County | 217 | 1,199 | 66 | 1,482 | R +66.3 |
| Shackelford County | 121 | 1,258 | 65 | 1,444 | R +78.8 |
| Hemphill County | 170 | 1,202 | 64 | 1,436 | R +71.9 |
| Donley County | 140 | 1,217 | 63 | 1,420 | R +75.8 |
| Dallam County | 148 | 1,170 | 61 | 1,379 | R +74.1 |
| Kinney County | 332 | 906 | 58 | 1,296 | R +44.3 |
| Crockett County | 305 | 889 | 56 | 1,250 | R +46.7 |
| Crane County | 176 | 1,006 | 55 | 1,237 | R +67.1 |
| Sutton County | 216 | 960 | 54 | 1,230 | R +60.5 |
| Hardeman County | 166 | 994 | 54 | 1,214 | R +68.2 |
| Knox County | 187 | 939 | 52 | 1,178 | R +63.8 |
| Upton County | 135 | 953 | 52 | 1,140 | R +71.8 |
| Concho County | 161 | 911 | 50 | 1,122 | R +66.9 |
| Lipscomb County | 98 | 934 | 48 | 1,080 | R +77.4 |
| Jeff Davis County | 430 | 575 | 47 | 1,052 | R +13.7 |
| Collingsworth County | 116 | 866 | 46 | 1,028 | R +72.9 |
| Hall County | 131 | 848 | 46 | 1,025 | R +70.0 |
| Schleicher County | 185 | 780 | 45 | 1,010 | R +58.9 |
| Armstrong County | 70 | 848 | 42 | 960 | R +81.0 |
| Hudspeth County | 300 | 602 | 42 | 944 | R +32.1 |
| Menard County | 141 | 691 | 40 | 872 | R +63.1 |
| Dickens County | 117 | 684 | 38 | 839 | R +67.6 |
| Oldham County | 68 | 715 | 37 | 820 | R +78.9 |
| Reagan County | 126 | 657 | 37 | 820 | R +64.9 |
| Sherman County | 60 | 717 | 37 | 814 | R +80.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 64 | 659 | 33 | 756 | R +78.7 |
| Culberson County | 346 | 357 | 33 | 736 | R +1.5 |
| Cochran County | 122 | 580 | 33 | 735 | R +62.3 |
| Irion County | 85 | 590 | 31 | 706 | R +71.6 |
| Edwards County | 85 | 544 | 29 | 658 | R +69.7 |
| Briscoe County | 49 | 553 | 28 | 630 | R +79.9 |
| Stonewall County | 92 | 478 | 28 | 598 | R +64.6 |
| Motley County | 35 | 512 | 25 | 572 | R +83.4 |
| Cottle County | 80 | 461 | 25 | 566 | R +67.4 |
| Glasscock County | 32 | 493 | 24 | 549 | R +84.0 |
| Sterling County | 32 | 452 | 22 | 506 | R +83.1 |
| Foard County | 91 | 391 | 22 | 504 | R +59.5 |
| Roberts County | 12 | 398 | 19 | 429 | R +90.1 |
| Terrell County | 96 | 272 | 18 | 386 | R +45.6 |
| Kent County | 40 | 318 | 18 | 376 | R +74.0 |
| Borden County | 17 | 290 | 15 | 322 | R +84.8 |
| McMullen County | 24 | 235 | 13 | 272 | R +77.7 |
| King County | 5 | 100 | 5 | 110 | R +86.4 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 41 | 3 | 66 | R +28.0 |
| Loving County | 3 | 21 | 2 | 26 | R +72.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.0 and R +8.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +0.9 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +1.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.0 and R +8.5.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Anyiam | Smith | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 43.2 | 56.8 | R +13.6 |