2026 forecast · Texas Railroad Commissioner
Jon Rosenthal and Bo French are in a toss up for Texas's railroad commissioner.
Jon Rosenthal vs Bo French, an open seat. The model has French ahead by 0.7 points, with a 56 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.7Polls R +1.4Updated October 22, 2026
Jon Rosenthal
Democrat
46.9%
4,687,507 projected votes
Bo French
Republican
47.6%
4,755,907 projected votes
56%French
44%Rosenthal
French slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, French wins about 56 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Rosenthal +1,415,589 net votes from 29 countiesStatewide R +0.7, a 68,390 vote marginFrench +1,483,979 net votes from 225 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Bo French R | 4,755,907 | 47.6% |
| Jon Rosenthal D | 4,687,507 | 46.9% |
| Arthur DiBianca | 555,509 | 5.6% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Rosenthal | French | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,687,514 | 4,755,904 | 555,498 | 9,998,916 | R +0.7 |
| Harris County | 802,350 | 505,094 | 76,910 | 1,384,354 | D +21.5 |
| Dallas County | 520,357 | 214,558 | 43,231 | 778,146 | D +39.3 |
| Tarrant County | 364,801 | 315,549 | 40,022 | 720,372 | D +6.8 |
| Bexar County | 413,300 | 233,642 | 38,057 | 684,999 | D +26.2 |
| Travis County | 412,732 | 107,614 | 30,609 | 550,955 | D +55.4 |
| Collin County | 210,196 | 203,657 | 24,345 | 438,198 | D +1.5 |
| Denton County | 173,517 | 186,080 | 21,153 | 380,750 | R +3.3 |
| Fort Bend County | 166,756 | 123,206 | 17,056 | 307,018 | D +14.2 |
| Williamson County | 139,179 | 112,308 | 14,794 | 266,281 | D +10.1 |
| Montgomery County | 69,278 | 169,608 | 14,052 | 252,938 | R +39.7 |
| El Paso County | 152,608 | 66,712 | 12,902 | 232,222 | D +37.0 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,071 | 69,781 | 10,874 | 195,726 | D +23.1 |
| Brazoria County | 54,122 | 74,054 | 7,540 | 135,716 | R +14.7 |
| Galveston County | 51,242 | 76,154 | 7,494 | 134,890 | R +18.5 |
| Bell County | 50,502 | 57,816 | 6,372 | 114,690 | R +6.4 |
| Nueces County | 53,986 | 52,335 | 6,254 | 112,575 | D +1.5 |
| Hays County | 61,997 | 41,583 | 6,093 | 109,673 | D +18.6 |
| Lubbock County | 34,760 | 67,900 | 6,038 | 108,698 | R +30.5 |
| Cameron County | 58,954 | 41,187 | 5,890 | 106,031 | D +16.8 |
| Smith County | 24,555 | 60,499 | 5,003 | 90,057 | R +39.9 |
| McLennan County | 32,002 | 51,798 | 4,930 | 88,730 | R +22.3 |
| Comal County | 23,887 | 57,720 | 4,800 | 86,407 | R +39.2 |
| Ellis County | 25,885 | 50,742 | 4,507 | 81,134 | R +30.6 |
| Brazos County | 33,576 | 42,737 | 4,489 | 80,802 | R +11.3 |
| Jefferson County | 36,718 | 35,982 | 4,276 | 76,976 | D +1.0 |
| Parker County | 12,134 | 57,648 | 4,105 | 73,887 | R +61.6 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,404 | 40,952 | 3,904 | 70,260 | R +22.1 |
| Johnson County | 16,235 | 48,096 | 3,785 | 68,116 | R +46.8 |
| Webb County | 37,117 | 19,710 | 3,343 | 60,170 | D +28.9 |
| Randall County | 11,482 | 42,687 | 3,187 | 57,356 | R +54.4 |
| Kaufman County | 18,226 | 34,180 | 3,084 | 55,490 | R +28.8 |
| Grayson County | 12,109 | 39,253 | 3,022 | 54,384 | R +49.9 |
| Rockwall County | 14,752 | 33,529 | 2,841 | 51,122 | R +36.7 |
| Midland County | 10,147 | 37,909 | 2,827 | 50,883 | R +54.6 |
| Taylor County | 12,441 | 33,846 | 2,723 | 49,010 | R +43.7 |
| Gregg County | 11,722 | 26,707 | 2,260 | 40,689 | R +36.8 |
| Wichita County | 12,260 | 25,749 | 2,236 | 40,245 | R +33.5 |
| Tom Green County | 10,840 | 26,869 | 2,218 | 39,927 | R +40.1 |
| Hunt County | 8,009 | 28,287 | 2,135 | 38,431 | R +52.8 |
| Ector County | 8,928 | 25,095 | 2,001 | 36,024 | R +44.9 |
| Bastrop County | 15,207 | 18,065 | 1,956 | 35,228 | R +8.1 |
| Henderson County | 5,822 | 25,725 | 1,855 | 33,402 | R +59.6 |
| Bowie County | 8,760 | 21,736 | 1,794 | 32,290 | R +40.2 |
| Hood County | 5,509 | 23,870 | 1,728 | 31,107 | R +59.0 |
| Victoria County | 8,908 | 20,231 | 1,714 | 30,853 | R +36.7 |
| Orange County | 4,971 | 24,030 | 1,705 | 30,706 | R +62.1 |
| Wise County | 4,281 | 24,672 | 1,703 | 30,656 | R +66.5 |
| Angelina County | 7,343 | 20,768 | 1,655 | 29,766 | R +45.1 |
| Potter County | 8,824 | 19,064 | 1,640 | 29,528 | R +34.7 |
| Liberty County | 4,763 | 20,109 | 1,463 | 26,335 | R +58.3 |
| Harrison County | 6,237 | 17,975 | 1,424 | 25,636 | R +45.8 |
| Kerr County | 5,661 | 18,043 | 1,395 | 25,099 | R +49.3 |
| Kendall County | 5,203 | 18,230 | 1,378 | 24,811 | R +52.5 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,944 | 19,982 | 1,349 | 24,275 | R +70.2 |
| Walker County | 7,483 | 15,359 | 1,344 | 24,186 | R +32.6 |
| Burnet County | 5,343 | 17,239 | 1,328 | 23,910 | R +49.8 |
| Hardin County | 2,767 | 19,408 | 1,305 | 23,480 | R +70.9 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,095 | 14,395 | 1,265 | 22,755 | R +32.1 |
| Coryell County | 7,006 | 14,426 | 1,262 | 22,694 | R +32.7 |
| Wilson County | 5,351 | 15,954 | 1,253 | 22,558 | R +47.0 |
| San Patricio County | 7,647 | 13,423 | 1,239 | 22,309 | R +25.9 |
| Waller County | 7,676 | 12,702 | 1,198 | 21,576 | R +23.3 |
| Wood County | 2,957 | 16,955 | 1,171 | 21,083 | R +66.4 |
| Medina County | 5,885 | 13,774 | 1,156 | 20,815 | R +37.9 |
| Polk County | 4,215 | 15,044 | 1,133 | 20,392 | R +53.1 |
| Chambers County | 3,210 | 15,115 | 1,079 | 19,404 | R +61.4 |
| Rusk County | 3,720 | 14,095 | 1,048 | 18,863 | R +55.0 |
| Lamar County | 3,610 | 13,943 | 1,033 | 18,586 | R +55.6 |
| Anderson County | 3,500 | 13,696 | 1,012 | 18,208 | R +56.0 |
| Cherokee County | 3,191 | 13,510 | 983 | 17,684 | R +58.4 |
| Cooke County | 2,673 | 13,838 | 971 | 17,482 | R +63.9 |
| Navarro County | 4,117 | 12,142 | 957 | 17,216 | R +46.6 |
| Upshur County | 2,421 | 13,462 | 933 | 16,816 | R +65.7 |
| Erath County | 2,635 | 12,556 | 893 | 16,084 | R +61.7 |
| Washington County | 3,394 | 11,633 | 884 | 15,911 | R +51.8 |
| Atascosa County | 4,815 | 10,130 | 879 | 15,824 | R +33.6 |
| Brown County | 1,849 | 12,121 | 822 | 14,792 | R +69.4 |
| Caldwell County | 6,689 | 7,027 | 806 | 14,522 | R +2.3 |
| Gillespie County | 2,773 | 10,901 | 805 | 14,479 | R +56.1 |
| Wharton County | 3,573 | 10,065 | 802 | 14,440 | R +45.0 |
| Starr County | 8,361 | 5,195 | 798 | 14,354 | D +22.1 |
| Hopkins County | 2,718 | 10,767 | 793 | 14,278 | R +56.4 |
| Fannin County | 2,156 | 11,078 | 778 | 14,012 | R +63.7 |
| Hill County | 2,448 | 10,770 | 778 | 13,996 | R +59.5 |
| Jasper County | 2,129 | 10,464 | 741 | 13,334 | R +62.5 |
| Maverick County | 7,277 | 5,176 | 733 | 13,186 | D +15.9 |
| Austin County | 2,299 | 9,919 | 719 | 12,937 | R +58.9 |
| Val Verde County | 5,551 | 6,535 | 710 | 12,796 | R +7.7 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,681 | 5,727 | 672 | 12,080 | R +0.4 |
| Llano County | 2,330 | 9,060 | 670 | 12,060 | R +55.8 |
| Cass County | 2,000 | 9,238 | 662 | 11,900 | R +60.8 |
| Matagorda County | 2,980 | 8,144 | 654 | 11,778 | R +43.9 |
| Grimes County | 2,146 | 8,891 | 649 | 11,686 | R +57.7 |
| Fayette County | 2,150 | 8,856 | 648 | 11,654 | R +57.5 |
| Bandera County | 2,101 | 8,837 | 644 | 11,582 | R +58.2 |
| Aransas County | 2,411 | 8,319 | 631 | 11,361 | R +52.0 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,696 | 8,981 | 628 | 11,305 | R +64.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,000 | 8,492 | 618 | 11,110 | R +58.4 |
| Milam County | 2,166 | 7,035 | 541 | 9,742 | R +50.0 |
| Lampasas County | 1,879 | 7,203 | 534 | 9,616 | R +55.4 |
| Panola County | 1,561 | 7,518 | 534 | 9,613 | R +62.0 |
| Kleberg County | 4,558 | 4,472 | 530 | 9,560 | D +0.9 |
| Montague County | 943 | 7,754 | 512 | 9,209 | R +74.0 |
| Lavaca County | 1,056 | 7,558 | 506 | 9,120 | R +71.3 |
| Titus County | 1,973 | 6,475 | 498 | 8,946 | R +50.3 |
| Uvalde County | 3,360 | 4,993 | 491 | 8,844 | R +18.5 |
| Howard County | 1,766 | 6,445 | 483 | 8,694 | R +53.8 |
| Bee County | 2,845 | 5,309 | 479 | 8,633 | R +28.6 |
| Colorado County | 1,793 | 6,338 | 478 | 8,609 | R +52.8 |
| Hale County | 1,753 | 6,238 | 470 | 8,461 | R +53.0 |
| Shelby County | 1,470 | 6,511 | 469 | 8,450 | R +59.7 |
| Houston County | 1,800 | 6,116 | 466 | 8,382 | R +51.5 |
| Tyler County | 1,080 | 6,833 | 466 | 8,379 | R +68.7 |
| Bosque County | 1,382 | 6,473 | 461 | 8,316 | R +61.2 |
| Limestone County | 1,790 | 5,797 | 446 | 8,033 | R +49.9 |
| Burleson County | 1,327 | 6,076 | 435 | 7,838 | R +60.6 |
| Freestone County | 1,240 | 6,111 | 432 | 7,783 | R +62.6 |
| Leon County | 760 | 6,455 | 425 | 7,640 | R +74.5 |
| Lee County | 1,385 | 5,458 | 403 | 7,246 | R +56.2 |
| Eastland County | 817 | 6,003 | 402 | 7,222 | R +71.8 |
| Young County | 822 | 5,982 | 400 | 7,204 | R +71.6 |
| Hutchinson County | 734 | 6,065 | 399 | 7,198 | R +74.1 |
| Blanco County | 1,675 | 5,032 | 395 | 7,102 | R +47.3 |
| DeWitt County | 1,197 | 5,487 | 394 | 7,078 | R +60.6 |
| Robertson County | 1,730 | 4,810 | 385 | 6,925 | R +44.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,728 | 4,756 | 380 | 6,864 | R +44.1 |
| Hockley County | 1,150 | 5,312 | 380 | 6,842 | R +60.8 |
| Gray County | 630 | 5,770 | 377 | 6,777 | R +75.8 |
| Gonzales County | 1,436 | 4,818 | 367 | 6,621 | R +51.1 |
| Jones County | 890 | 5,201 | 359 | 6,450 | R +66.8 |
| Trinity County | 1,049 | 4,870 | 349 | 6,268 | R +61.0 |
| Callahan County | 616 | 5,118 | 337 | 6,071 | R +74.2 |
| Falls County | 1,573 | 3,829 | 318 | 5,720 | R +39.4 |
| Rains County | 741 | 4,627 | 316 | 5,684 | R +68.4 |
| Comanche County | 719 | 4,553 | 311 | 5,583 | R +68.7 |
| Jackson County | 804 | 4,408 | 306 | 5,518 | R +65.3 |
| Willacy County | 3,032 | 2,016 | 297 | 5,345 | D +19.0 |
| Gaines County | 411 | 4,465 | 286 | 5,162 | R +78.5 |
| Scurry County | 645 | 4,169 | 283 | 5,097 | R +69.1 |
| Clay County | 523 | 4,248 | 280 | 5,051 | R +73.7 |
| Newton County | 883 | 3,867 | 280 | 5,030 | R +59.3 |
| Andrews County | 652 | 4,069 | 278 | 4,999 | R +68.3 |
| Red River County | 973 | 3,692 | 275 | 4,940 | R +55.0 |
| Sabine County | 508 | 4,057 | 269 | 4,834 | R +73.4 |
| Karnes County | 1,081 | 3,407 | 264 | 4,752 | R +48.9 |
| Frio County | 2,307 | 2,161 | 262 | 4,730 | D +3.1 |
| Madison County | 835 | 3,632 | 262 | 4,729 | R +59.1 |
| Morris County | 1,179 | 3,227 | 258 | 4,664 | R +43.9 |
| Nolan County | 914 | 3,469 | 258 | 4,641 | R +55.1 |
| Moore County | 752 | 3,601 | 256 | 4,609 | R +61.8 |
| Camp County | 1,045 | 3,270 | 253 | 4,568 | R +48.7 |
| Franklin County | 681 | 3,594 | 251 | 4,526 | R +64.4 |
| Live Oak County | 675 | 3,561 | 249 | 4,485 | R +64.4 |
| Somervell County | 716 | 3,512 | 248 | 4,476 | R +62.5 |
| Archer County | 412 | 3,655 | 239 | 4,306 | R +75.3 |
| Brewster County | 2,094 | 1,916 | 236 | 4,246 | D +4.2 |
| Pecos County | 1,284 | 2,649 | 231 | 4,164 | R +32.8 |
| Wilbarger County | 792 | 3,017 | 223 | 4,032 | R +55.2 |
| Zapata County | 2,134 | 1,665 | 223 | 4,022 | D +11.7 |
| Marion County | 979 | 2,815 | 223 | 4,017 | R +45.7 |
| Deaf Smith County | 944 | 2,790 | 220 | 3,954 | R +46.7 |
| Duval County | 2,257 | 1,462 | 219 | 3,938 | D +20.2 |
| Hamilton County | 556 | 3,074 | 214 | 3,844 | R +65.5 |
| Lamb County | 641 | 2,854 | 206 | 3,701 | R +59.8 |
| Runnels County | 395 | 3,062 | 203 | 3,660 | R +72.9 |
| Coleman County | 362 | 3,045 | 201 | 3,608 | R +74.4 |
| Goliad County | 732 | 2,599 | 195 | 3,526 | R +52.9 |
| Jack County | 286 | 3,036 | 196 | 3,518 | R +78.2 |
| Stephens County | 279 | 2,886 | 186 | 3,351 | R +77.8 |
| San Augustine County | 720 | 2,393 | 183 | 3,296 | R +50.7 |
| Dawson County | 632 | 2,409 | 179 | 3,220 | R +55.2 |
| Ward County | 588 | 2,399 | 175 | 3,162 | R +57.2 |
| Terry County | 549 | 2,419 | 174 | 3,142 | R +59.5 |
| Dimmit County | 1,954 | 997 | 173 | 3,124 | D +30.6 |
| Zavala County | 2,062 | 835 | 171 | 3,068 | D +40.0 |
| McCulloch County | 407 | 2,432 | 167 | 3,006 | R +67.4 |
| Reeves County | 1,266 | 1,572 | 167 | 3,005 | R +10.2 |
| Carson County | 248 | 2,289 | 149 | 2,686 | R +76.0 |
| Refugio County | 809 | 1,708 | 148 | 2,665 | R +33.7 |
| Ochiltree County | 228 | 2,209 | 143 | 2,580 | R +76.8 |
| Mitchell County | 324 | 1,965 | 135 | 2,424 | R +67.7 |
| San Saba County | 237 | 2,036 | 134 | 2,407 | R +74.8 |
| Brooks County | 1,493 | 728 | 131 | 2,352 | D +32.5 |
| Mills County | 228 | 1,956 | 128 | 2,312 | R +74.8 |
| Parmer County | 320 | 1,832 | 127 | 2,279 | R +66.3 |
| Delta County | 356 | 1,774 | 124 | 2,254 | R +62.9 |
| Mason County | 396 | 1,676 | 122 | 2,194 | R +58.3 |
| Childress County | 239 | 1,743 | 116 | 2,098 | R +71.7 |
| Kimble County | 233 | 1,744 | 116 | 2,093 | R +72.2 |
| Lynn County | 311 | 1,662 | 115 | 2,088 | R +64.7 |
| Swisher County | 405 | 1,554 | 115 | 2,074 | R +55.4 |
| Haskell County | 295 | 1,616 | 113 | 2,024 | R +65.3 |
| Yoakum County | 277 | 1,631 | 113 | 2,021 | R +67.0 |
| La Salle County | 949 | 944 | 112 | 2,005 | D +0.3 |
| Wheeler County | 150 | 1,688 | 108 | 1,946 | R +79.0 |
| Presidio County | 1,373 | 417 | 106 | 1,896 | D +50.4 |
| Castro County | 370 | 1,378 | 103 | 1,851 | R +54.5 |
| Hartley County | 160 | 1,567 | 101 | 1,828 | R +76.9 |
| Floyd County | 300 | 1,346 | 98 | 1,744 | R +60.0 |
| Hansford County | 127 | 1,520 | 97 | 1,744 | R +79.8 |
| Winkler County | 275 | 1,364 | 97 | 1,736 | R +62.7 |
| Martin County | 217 | 1,417 | 96 | 1,730 | R +69.4 |
| Bailey County | 317 | 1,264 | 93 | 1,674 | R +56.6 |
| Crosby County | 404 | 1,100 | 88 | 1,592 | R +43.7 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,001 | 483 | 86 | 1,570 | D +33.0 |
| Real County | 228 | 1,250 | 87 | 1,565 | R +65.3 |
| Fisher County | 281 | 1,189 | 86 | 1,556 | R +58.4 |
| Coke County | 154 | 1,314 | 86 | 1,554 | R +74.7 |
| Baylor County | 157 | 1,249 | 82 | 1,488 | R +73.4 |
| Garza County | 220 | 1,180 | 82 | 1,482 | R +64.8 |
| Shackelford County | 123 | 1,240 | 81 | 1,444 | R +77.4 |
| Hemphill County | 173 | 1,184 | 79 | 1,436 | R +70.4 |
| Donley County | 143 | 1,199 | 78 | 1,420 | R +74.3 |
| Dallam County | 150 | 1,153 | 76 | 1,379 | R +72.7 |
| Kinney County | 335 | 889 | 72 | 1,296 | R +42.8 |
| Crockett County | 308 | 872 | 70 | 1,250 | R +45.2 |
| Crane County | 178 | 990 | 69 | 1,237 | R +65.6 |
| Sutton County | 219 | 943 | 68 | 1,230 | R +58.9 |
| Hardeman County | 169 | 978 | 67 | 1,214 | R +66.7 |
| Knox County | 189 | 923 | 66 | 1,178 | R +62.3 |
| Upton County | 137 | 939 | 64 | 1,140 | R +70.3 |
| Concho County | 163 | 897 | 62 | 1,122 | R +65.4 |
| Lipscomb County | 100 | 920 | 60 | 1,080 | R +76.0 |
| Jeff Davis County | 432 | 562 | 58 | 1,052 | R +12.3 |
| Collingsworth County | 118 | 853 | 57 | 1,028 | R +71.5 |
| Hall County | 133 | 835 | 57 | 1,025 | R +68.5 |
| Schleicher County | 187 | 766 | 57 | 1,010 | R +57.3 |
| Armstrong County | 71 | 836 | 53 | 960 | R +79.6 |
| Hudspeth County | 301 | 590 | 53 | 944 | R +30.6 |
| Menard County | 143 | 680 | 49 | 872 | R +61.5 |
| Dickens County | 119 | 673 | 47 | 839 | R +66.1 |
| Oldham County | 70 | 705 | 45 | 820 | R +77.5 |
| Reagan County | 127 | 647 | 46 | 820 | R +63.4 |
| Sherman County | 62 | 707 | 45 | 814 | R +79.3 |
| Throckmorton County | 65 | 650 | 41 | 756 | R +77.3 |
| Culberson County | 347 | 349 | 40 | 736 | R +0.3 |
| Cochran County | 124 | 570 | 41 | 735 | R +60.8 |
| Irion County | 86 | 581 | 39 | 706 | R +70.1 |
| Edwards County | 86 | 536 | 36 | 658 | R +68.2 |
| Briscoe County | 50 | 545 | 35 | 630 | R +78.5 |
| Stonewall County | 94 | 471 | 33 | 598 | R +63.0 |
| Motley County | 35 | 505 | 32 | 572 | R +82.1 |
| Cottle County | 81 | 453 | 32 | 566 | R +65.9 |
| Glasscock County | 32 | 486 | 31 | 549 | R +82.6 |
| Sterling County | 32 | 446 | 28 | 506 | R +81.7 |
| Foard County | 92 | 385 | 27 | 504 | R +58.0 |
| Roberts County | 12 | 393 | 24 | 429 | R +88.9 |
| Terrell County | 97 | 267 | 22 | 386 | R +44.1 |
| Kent County | 41 | 313 | 22 | 376 | R +72.5 |
| Borden County | 18 | 286 | 18 | 322 | R +83.5 |
| McMullen County | 25 | 232 | 15 | 272 | R +76.3 |
| King County | 5 | 99 | 6 | 110 | R +85.1 |
| Kenedy County | 23 | 40 | 3 | 66 | R +26.5 |
| Loving County | 3 | 21 | 2 | 26 | R +71.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.1 and R +6.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +1.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +0.5 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +0.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.1 and R +6.5.
Polls of the race
11 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Rosenthal | French | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 385 LV | 2026-10-18 | 39.8 | 45.1 | R +5.3 |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 47.9 | 52.1 | R +4.2 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 43 | 45 | R +2.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 44 | 46 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 42 | 44 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 41 | 45 | R +4.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 2026-07-30 | 41 | 44 | R +3.0 |