2026 forecast · Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 4
Kevin Yeary is favored to win Texas's judge, court of criminal appeals, place 4 race.
Audra Riley vs Kevin Yeary, with Kevin Yeary running again. The model has Yeary ahead by 3.9 points, with a 77 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.9Polls R +12.2Updated October 22, 2026
Audra Riley
Democrat
46.6%
4,656,164 projected votes
Kevin Yeary
Republican
50.5%
5,045,349 projected votes
77%Yeary
23%Riley
Yeary favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Yeary wins about 77 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Riley +1,269,164 net votes from 23 countiesStatewide R +3.9, a 389,185 vote marginYeary +1,658,349 net votes from 231 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Yeary R | 5,045,349 | 50.5% |
| Audra Riley D | 4,656,164 | 46.6% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Riley | Yeary | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,656,166 | 5,045,351 | 297,399 | 9,998,916 | R +3.9 |
| Harris County | 800,954 | 542,224 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +18.7 |
| Dallas County | 523,301 | 231,699 | 23,146 | 778,146 | D +37.5 |
| Tarrant County | 361,751 | 337,194 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +3.4 |
| Bexar County | 413,352 | 251,273 | 20,374 | 684,999 | D +23.7 |
| Travis County | 417,567 | 117,001 | 16,387 | 550,955 | D +54.5 |
| Collin County | 207,856 | 217,308 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +2.2 |
| Denton County | 171,215 | 198,210 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +7.1 |
| Fort Bend County | 165,873 | 132,013 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +11.0 |
| Williamson County | 138,185 | 120,176 | 7,920 | 266,281 | D +6.8 |
| Montgomery County | 67,054 | 178,361 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +44.0 |
| El Paso County | 153,364 | 71,950 | 6,908 | 232,222 | D +35.1 |
| Hidalgo County | 114,986 | 74,918 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +20.5 |
| Brazoria County | 53,127 | 78,552 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +18.7 |
| Galveston County | 50,170 | 80,707 | 4,013 | 134,890 | R +22.6 |
| Bell County | 49,788 | 61,491 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +10.2 |
| Nueces County | 53,421 | 55,805 | 3,349 | 112,575 | R +2.1 |
| Hays County | 61,787 | 44,624 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +15.7 |
| Lubbock County | 33,833 | 71,632 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +34.8 |
| Cameron County | 58,735 | 44,142 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +13.8 |
| Smith County | 23,779 | 63,599 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +44.2 |
| McLennan County | 31,302 | 54,790 | 2,638 | 88,730 | R +26.5 |
| Comal County | 23,110 | 60,726 | 2,571 | 86,407 | R +43.5 |
| Ellis County | 25,196 | 53,526 | 2,412 | 81,134 | R +34.9 |
| Brazos County | 33,016 | 45,383 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +15.3 |
| Jefferson County | 36,321 | 38,366 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +2.7 |
| Parker County | 11,581 | 60,108 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +65.7 |
| Guadalupe County | 24,823 | 43,347 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +26.4 |
| Johnson County | 15,667 | 50,423 | 2,026 | 68,116 | R +51.0 |
| Webb County | 37,177 | 21,203 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +26.6 |
| Randall County | 11,022 | 44,628 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +58.6 |
| Kaufman County | 17,765 | 36,074 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +33.0 |
| Grayson County | 11,659 | 41,108 | 1,617 | 54,384 | R +54.1 |
| Rockwall County | 14,300 | 35,302 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +41.1 |
| Midland County | 9,744 | 39,626 | 1,513 | 50,883 | R +58.7 |
| Taylor County | 12,033 | 35,519 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +47.9 |
| Gregg County | 11,379 | 28,100 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +41.1 |
| Wichita County | 11,927 | 27,121 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +37.8 |
| Tom Green County | 10,499 | 28,241 | 1,187 | 39,927 | R +44.4 |
| Hunt County | 7,698 | 29,590 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +57.0 |
| Ector County | 8,630 | 26,323 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +49.1 |
| Bastrop County | 14,977 | 19,203 | 1,048 | 35,228 | R +12.0 |
| Henderson County | 5,576 | 26,833 | 993 | 33,402 | R +63.6 |
| Bowie County | 8,481 | 22,848 | 961 | 32,290 | R +44.5 |
| Hood County | 5,268 | 24,914 | 925 | 31,107 | R +63.2 |
| Victoria County | 8,644 | 21,292 | 917 | 30,853 | R +41.0 |
| Orange County | 4,752 | 25,041 | 913 | 30,706 | R +66.1 |
| Wise County | 4,074 | 25,670 | 912 | 30,656 | R +70.5 |
| Angelina County | 7,093 | 21,788 | 885 | 29,766 | R +49.4 |
| Potter County | 8,583 | 20,066 | 879 | 29,528 | R +38.9 |
| Liberty County | 4,569 | 20,983 | 783 | 26,335 | R +62.3 |
| Harrison County | 6,019 | 18,855 | 762 | 25,636 | R +50.1 |
| Kerr County | 5,453 | 18,899 | 747 | 25,099 | R +53.6 |
| Kendall County | 4,995 | 19,078 | 738 | 24,811 | R +56.8 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,801 | 20,752 | 722 | 24,275 | R +74.0 |
| Walker County | 7,293 | 16,173 | 720 | 24,186 | R +36.7 |
| Burnet County | 5,142 | 18,057 | 711 | 23,910 | R +54.0 |
| Hardin County | 2,627 | 20,155 | 698 | 23,480 | R +74.7 |
| Nacogdoches County | 6,906 | 15,172 | 677 | 22,755 | R +36.3 |
| Coryell County | 6,831 | 15,188 | 675 | 22,694 | R +36.8 |
| Wilson County | 5,154 | 16,734 | 670 | 22,558 | R +51.3 |
| San Patricio County | 7,463 | 14,183 | 663 | 22,309 | R +30.1 |
| Waller County | 7,499 | 13,435 | 642 | 21,576 | R +27.5 |
| Wood County | 2,819 | 17,637 | 627 | 21,083 | R +70.3 |
| Medina County | 5,703 | 14,493 | 619 | 20,815 | R +42.2 |
| Polk County | 4,050 | 15,735 | 607 | 20,392 | R +57.3 |
| Chambers County | 3,061 | 15,765 | 578 | 19,404 | R +65.5 |
| Rusk County | 3,573 | 14,729 | 561 | 18,863 | R +59.1 |
| Lamar County | 3,466 | 14,567 | 553 | 18,586 | R +59.7 |
| Anderson County | 3,366 | 14,301 | 541 | 18,208 | R +60.0 |
| Cherokee County | 3,057 | 14,100 | 527 | 17,684 | R +62.5 |
| Cooke County | 2,553 | 14,410 | 519 | 17,482 | R +67.8 |
| Navarro County | 3,975 | 12,728 | 513 | 17,216 | R +50.9 |
| Upshur County | 2,307 | 14,009 | 500 | 16,816 | R +69.6 |
| Erath County | 2,521 | 13,085 | 478 | 16,084 | R +65.7 |
| Washington County | 3,265 | 12,173 | 473 | 15,911 | R +56.0 |
| Atascosa County | 4,678 | 10,675 | 471 | 15,824 | R +37.9 |
| Brown County | 1,759 | 12,593 | 440 | 14,792 | R +73.2 |
| Caldwell County | 6,610 | 7,480 | 432 | 14,522 | R +6.0 |
| Gillespie County | 2,658 | 11,390 | 431 | 14,479 | R +60.3 |
| Wharton County | 3,449 | 10,562 | 429 | 14,440 | R +49.3 |
| Starr County | 8,347 | 5,580 | 427 | 14,354 | D +19.3 |
| Hopkins County | 2,605 | 11,248 | 425 | 14,278 | R +60.5 |
| Fannin County | 2,060 | 11,536 | 416 | 14,012 | R +67.6 |
| Hill County | 2,342 | 11,237 | 417 | 13,996 | R +63.6 |
| Jasper County | 2,033 | 10,904 | 397 | 13,334 | R +66.5 |
| Maverick County | 7,244 | 5,550 | 392 | 13,186 | D +12.8 |
| Austin County | 2,199 | 10,353 | 385 | 12,937 | R +63.0 |
| Val Verde County | 5,466 | 6,950 | 380 | 12,796 | R +11.6 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,615 | 6,105 | 360 | 12,080 | R +4.0 |
| Llano County | 2,235 | 9,467 | 358 | 12,060 | R +60.0 |
| Cass County | 1,911 | 9,635 | 354 | 11,900 | R +64.9 |
| Matagorda County | 2,880 | 8,548 | 350 | 11,778 | R +48.1 |
| Grimes County | 2,055 | 9,283 | 348 | 11,686 | R +61.9 |
| Fayette County | 2,060 | 9,247 | 347 | 11,654 | R +61.7 |
| Bandera County | 2,011 | 9,226 | 345 | 11,582 | R +62.3 |
| Aransas County | 2,318 | 8,705 | 338 | 11,361 | R +56.2 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,619 | 9,349 | 337 | 11,305 | R +68.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,916 | 8,863 | 331 | 11,110 | R +62.5 |
| Milam County | 2,086 | 7,367 | 289 | 9,742 | R +54.2 |
| Lampasas County | 1,803 | 7,527 | 286 | 9,616 | R +59.5 |
| Panola County | 1,491 | 7,836 | 286 | 9,613 | R +66.0 |
| Kleberg County | 4,510 | 4,766 | 284 | 9,560 | R +2.7 |
| Montague County | 894 | 8,042 | 273 | 9,209 | R +77.6 |
| Lavaca County | 1,002 | 7,847 | 271 | 9,120 | R +75.1 |
| Titus County | 1,902 | 6,778 | 266 | 8,946 | R +54.5 |
| Uvalde County | 3,291 | 5,290 | 263 | 8,844 | R +22.6 |
| Howard County | 1,699 | 6,737 | 258 | 8,694 | R +58.0 |
| Bee County | 2,777 | 5,599 | 257 | 8,633 | R +32.7 |
| Colorado County | 1,722 | 6,631 | 256 | 8,609 | R +57.0 |
| Hale County | 1,687 | 6,522 | 252 | 8,461 | R +57.1 |
| Shelby County | 1,406 | 6,793 | 251 | 8,450 | R +63.7 |
| Houston County | 1,733 | 6,400 | 249 | 8,382 | R +55.7 |
| Tyler County | 1,028 | 7,101 | 250 | 8,379 | R +72.5 |
| Bosque County | 1,321 | 6,748 | 247 | 8,316 | R +65.3 |
| Limestone County | 1,724 | 6,070 | 239 | 8,033 | R +54.1 |
| Burleson County | 1,268 | 6,337 | 233 | 7,838 | R +64.7 |
| Freestone County | 1,184 | 6,367 | 232 | 7,783 | R +66.6 |
| Leon County | 719 | 6,693 | 228 | 7,640 | R +78.2 |
| Lee County | 1,329 | 5,702 | 215 | 7,246 | R +60.4 |
| Eastland County | 776 | 6,231 | 215 | 7,222 | R +75.5 |
| Young County | 780 | 6,209 | 215 | 7,204 | R +75.4 |
| Hutchinson County | 696 | 6,288 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.7 |
| Blanco County | 1,614 | 5,277 | 211 | 7,102 | R +51.6 |
| DeWitt County | 1,146 | 5,721 | 211 | 7,078 | R +64.6 |
| Robertson County | 1,669 | 5,050 | 206 | 6,925 | R +48.8 |
| Calhoun County | 1,669 | 4,991 | 204 | 6,864 | R +48.4 |
| Hockley County | 1,099 | 5,539 | 204 | 6,842 | R +64.9 |
| Gray County | 598 | 5,977 | 202 | 6,777 | R +79.4 |
| Gonzales County | 1,382 | 5,043 | 196 | 6,621 | R +55.3 |
| Jones County | 850 | 5,408 | 192 | 6,450 | R +70.7 |
| Trinity County | 1,003 | 5,078 | 187 | 6,268 | R +65.0 |
| Callahan County | 584 | 5,306 | 181 | 6,071 | R +77.8 |
| Falls County | 1,525 | 4,024 | 171 | 5,720 | R +43.7 |
| Rains County | 706 | 4,809 | 169 | 5,684 | R +72.2 |
| Comanche County | 684 | 4,733 | 166 | 5,583 | R +72.5 |
| Jackson County | 766 | 4,588 | 164 | 5,518 | R +69.3 |
| Willacy County | 3,024 | 2,162 | 159 | 5,345 | D +16.1 |
| Gaines County | 389 | 4,620 | 153 | 5,162 | R +82.0 |
| Scurry County | 615 | 4,331 | 151 | 5,097 | R +72.9 |
| Clay County | 495 | 4,406 | 150 | 5,051 | R +77.4 |
| Newton County | 845 | 4,035 | 150 | 5,030 | R +63.4 |
| Andrews County | 621 | 4,230 | 148 | 4,999 | R +72.2 |
| Red River County | 933 | 3,860 | 147 | 4,940 | R +59.3 |
| Sabine County | 482 | 4,208 | 144 | 4,834 | R +77.1 |
| Karnes County | 1,043 | 3,568 | 141 | 4,752 | R +53.1 |
| Frio County | 2,284 | 2,305 | 141 | 4,730 | R +0.5 |
| Madison County | 799 | 3,789 | 141 | 4,729 | R +63.2 |
| Morris County | 1,138 | 3,387 | 139 | 4,664 | R +48.2 |
| Nolan County | 879 | 3,624 | 138 | 4,641 | R +59.2 |
| Moore County | 721 | 3,751 | 137 | 4,609 | R +65.8 |
| Camp County | 1,007 | 3,425 | 136 | 4,568 | R +53.0 |
| Franklin County | 649 | 3,742 | 135 | 4,526 | R +68.3 |
| Live Oak County | 644 | 3,708 | 133 | 4,485 | R +68.3 |
| Somervell County | 683 | 3,660 | 133 | 4,476 | R +66.5 |
| Archer County | 389 | 3,788 | 129 | 4,306 | R +78.9 |
| Brewster County | 2,073 | 2,048 | 125 | 4,246 | D +0.6 |
| Pecos County | 1,252 | 2,789 | 123 | 4,164 | R +36.9 |
| Wilbarger County | 761 | 3,151 | 120 | 4,032 | R +59.3 |
| Zapata County | 2,119 | 1,784 | 119 | 4,022 | D +8.3 |
| Marion County | 944 | 2,954 | 119 | 4,017 | R +50.0 |
| Deaf Smith County | 914 | 2,923 | 117 | 3,954 | R +50.8 |
| Duval County | 2,250 | 1,570 | 118 | 3,938 | D +17.3 |
| Hamilton County | 530 | 3,199 | 115 | 3,844 | R +69.4 |
| Lamb County | 614 | 2,977 | 110 | 3,701 | R +63.8 |
| Runnels County | 375 | 3,176 | 109 | 3,660 | R +76.5 |
| Coleman County | 343 | 3,158 | 107 | 3,608 | R +78.0 |
| Goliad County | 703 | 2,719 | 104 | 3,526 | R +57.1 |
| Jack County | 270 | 3,142 | 106 | 3,518 | R +81.7 |
| Stephens County | 264 | 2,987 | 100 | 3,351 | R +81.3 |
| San Augustine County | 693 | 2,505 | 98 | 3,296 | R +55.0 |
| Dawson County | 608 | 2,516 | 96 | 3,220 | R +59.3 |
| Ward County | 563 | 2,505 | 94 | 3,162 | R +61.4 |
| Terry County | 526 | 2,522 | 94 | 3,142 | R +63.5 |
| Dimmit County | 1,958 | 1,074 | 92 | 3,124 | D +28.3 |
| Zavala County | 2,074 | 903 | 91 | 3,068 | D +38.2 |
| McCulloch County | 387 | 2,530 | 89 | 3,006 | R +71.3 |
| Reeves County | 1,245 | 1,670 | 90 | 3,005 | R +14.1 |
| Carson County | 234 | 2,372 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.6 |
| Refugio County | 786 | 1,800 | 79 | 2,665 | R +38.0 |
| Ochiltree County | 216 | 2,287 | 77 | 2,580 | R +80.3 |
| Mitchell County | 310 | 2,042 | 72 | 2,424 | R +71.5 |
| San Saba County | 225 | 2,111 | 71 | 2,407 | R +78.4 |
| Brooks County | 1,498 | 785 | 69 | 2,352 | D +30.3 |
| Mills County | 215 | 2,028 | 69 | 2,312 | R +78.4 |
| Parmer County | 306 | 1,905 | 68 | 2,279 | R +70.2 |
| Delta County | 340 | 1,848 | 66 | 2,254 | R +66.9 |
| Mason County | 379 | 1,750 | 65 | 2,194 | R +62.5 |
| Childress County | 227 | 1,809 | 62 | 2,098 | R +75.4 |
| Kimble County | 221 | 1,810 | 62 | 2,093 | R +76.0 |
| Lynn County | 295 | 1,731 | 62 | 2,088 | R +68.7 |
| Swisher County | 389 | 1,623 | 62 | 2,074 | R +59.5 |
| Haskell County | 282 | 1,682 | 60 | 2,024 | R +69.2 |
| Yoakum County | 264 | 1,697 | 60 | 2,021 | R +70.9 |
| La Salle County | 938 | 1,007 | 60 | 2,005 | R +3.4 |
| Wheeler County | 142 | 1,747 | 57 | 1,946 | R +82.5 |
| Presidio County | 1,387 | 453 | 56 | 1,896 | D +49.3 |
| Castro County | 356 | 1,440 | 55 | 1,851 | R +58.5 |
| Hartley County | 152 | 1,622 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.4 |
| Floyd County | 287 | 1,404 | 53 | 1,744 | R +64.1 |
| Hansford County | 120 | 1,572 | 52 | 1,744 | R +83.2 |
| Winkler County | 263 | 1,420 | 53 | 1,736 | R +66.7 |
| Martin County | 206 | 1,472 | 52 | 1,730 | R +73.2 |
| Bailey County | 305 | 1,319 | 50 | 1,674 | R +60.6 |
| Crosby County | 390 | 1,155 | 47 | 1,592 | R +48.0 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,004 | 520 | 46 | 1,570 | D +30.8 |
| Real County | 217 | 1,302 | 46 | 1,565 | R +69.3 |
| Fisher County | 269 | 1,241 | 46 | 1,556 | R +62.5 |
| Coke County | 146 | 1,363 | 45 | 1,554 | R +78.3 |
| Baylor County | 149 | 1,296 | 43 | 1,488 | R +77.1 |
| Garza County | 210 | 1,228 | 44 | 1,482 | R +68.7 |
| Shackelford County | 116 | 1,285 | 43 | 1,444 | R +81.0 |
| Hemphill County | 164 | 1,230 | 42 | 1,436 | R +74.2 |
| Donley County | 135 | 1,243 | 42 | 1,420 | R +78.0 |
| Dallam County | 143 | 1,195 | 41 | 1,379 | R +76.3 |
| Kinney County | 324 | 933 | 39 | 1,296 | R +47.0 |
| Crockett County | 297 | 915 | 38 | 1,250 | R +49.4 |
| Crane County | 171 | 1,030 | 36 | 1,237 | R +69.4 |
| Sutton County | 209 | 984 | 37 | 1,230 | R +63.0 |
| Hardeman County | 161 | 1,018 | 35 | 1,214 | R +70.5 |
| Knox County | 181 | 962 | 35 | 1,178 | R +66.3 |
| Upton County | 131 | 975 | 34 | 1,140 | R +74.1 |
| Concho County | 156 | 933 | 33 | 1,122 | R +69.3 |
| Lipscomb County | 94 | 954 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.6 |
| Jeff Davis County | 425 | 597 | 30 | 1,052 | R +16.4 |
| Collingsworth County | 112 | 885 | 31 | 1,028 | R +75.3 |
| Hall County | 126 | 868 | 31 | 1,025 | R +72.3 |
| Schleicher County | 180 | 800 | 30 | 1,010 | R +61.4 |
| Armstrong County | 67 | 865 | 28 | 960 | R +83.0 |
| Hudspeth County | 294 | 622 | 28 | 944 | R +34.7 |
| Menard County | 137 | 709 | 26 | 872 | R +65.6 |
| Dickens County | 113 | 701 | 25 | 839 | R +70.0 |
| Oldham County | 66 | 730 | 24 | 820 | R +81.0 |
| Reagan County | 122 | 673 | 25 | 820 | R +67.3 |
| Sherman County | 58 | 732 | 24 | 814 | R +82.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 61 | 673 | 22 | 756 | R +80.9 |
| Culberson County | 343 | 372 | 21 | 736 | R +3.9 |
| Cochran County | 118 | 595 | 22 | 735 | R +64.8 |
| Irion County | 82 | 604 | 20 | 706 | R +73.9 |
| Edwards County | 82 | 557 | 19 | 658 | R +72.1 |
| Briscoe County | 47 | 564 | 19 | 630 | R +82.0 |
| Stonewall County | 90 | 490 | 18 | 598 | R +67.1 |
| Motley County | 33 | 522 | 17 | 572 | R +85.4 |
| Cottle County | 77 | 472 | 17 | 566 | R +69.8 |
| Glasscock County | 30 | 502 | 17 | 549 | R +85.9 |
| Sterling County | 30 | 461 | 15 | 506 | R +85.1 |
| Foard County | 88 | 401 | 15 | 504 | R +62.0 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.9 |
| Terrell County | 94 | 281 | 11 | 386 | R +48.3 |
| Kent County | 39 | 325 | 12 | 376 | R +76.2 |
| Borden County | 16 | 295 | 11 | 322 | R +86.8 |
| McMullen County | 23 | 240 | 9 | 272 | R +79.9 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.3 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +30.7 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +75.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.9 and R +10.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.1 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +3.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.9 and R +10.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Riley | Yeary | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 43.9 | 56.1 | R +12.2 |