2026 forecast ยท Texas Agriculture Commissioner

Nate Sheets is slightly favored to win Texas's agriculture commissioner race.

Clayton Tucker vs Nate Sheets, an open seat. The model has Sheets ahead by 2.1 points, with a 68 percent chance of winning.

Lean RModel R +2.1Polls R +3.9Updated October 22, 2026
Clayton Tucker
Democrat
47.0%
4,702,868 projected votes
Nate Sheets
Republican
49.2%
4,916,525 projected votes
68%Sheets
32%Tucker
Sheets favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Sheets wins about 68 of 100

Texas Agriculture Commissioner by county

Anderson CountyAndrews CountyAngelina CountyAransas CountyArcher CountyArmstrong CountyAtascosa CountyAustin CountyBailey CountyBandera CountyBastrop CountyBaylor CountyBee CountyBell CountyBexar CountyBlanco CountyBorden CountyBosque CountyBowie CountyBrazoria CountyBrazos CountyBrewster CountyBriscoe CountyBrooks CountyBrown CountyBurleson CountyBurnet CountyCaldwell CountyCalhoun CountyCallahan CountyCameron CountyCamp CountyCarson CountyCass CountyCastro CountyChambers CountyCherokee CountyChildress CountyClay CountyCochran CountyCoke CountyColeman CountyCollin CountyCollingsworth CountyColorado CountyComal CountyComanche CountyConcho CountyCooke CountyCoryell CountyCottle CountyCrane CountyCrockett CountyCrosby CountyCulberson CountyDallam CountyDallas CountyDawson CountyDeaf Smith CountyDelta CountyDenton CountyDeWitt CountyDickens CountyDimmit CountyDonley CountyDuval CountyEastland CountyEctor CountyEdwards CountyEllis CountyEl Paso CountyErath CountyFalls CountyFannin CountyFayette CountyFisher CountyFloyd CountyFoard CountyFort Bend CountyFranklin CountyFreestone CountyFrio CountyGaines CountyGalveston CountyGarza CountyGillespie CountyGlasscock CountyGoliad CountyGonzales CountyGray CountyGrayson CountyGregg CountyGrimes CountyGuadalupe CountyHale CountyHall CountyHamilton CountyHansford CountyHardeman CountyHardin CountyHarris CountyHarrison CountyHartley CountyHaskell CountyHays CountyHemphill CountyHenderson CountyHidalgo CountyHill CountyHockley CountyHood CountyHopkins CountyHouston CountyHoward CountyHudspeth CountyHunt CountyHutchinson CountyIrion CountyJack CountyJackson CountyJasper CountyJeff Davis CountyJefferson CountyJim Hogg CountyJim Wells CountyJohnson CountyJones CountyKarnes CountyKaufman CountyKendall CountyKenedy CountyKent CountyKerr CountyKimble CountyKing CountyKinney CountyKleberg CountyKnox CountyLamar CountyLamb CountyLampasas CountyLa Salle CountyLavaca CountyLee CountyLeon CountyLiberty CountyLimestone CountyLipscomb CountyLive Oak CountyLlano CountyLoving CountyLubbock CountyLynn CountyMcCulloch CountyMcLennan CountyMcMullen CountyMadison CountyMarion CountyMartin CountyMason CountyMatagorda CountyMaverick CountyMedina CountyMenard CountyMidland CountyMilam CountyMills CountyMitchell CountyMontague CountyMontgomery CountyMoore CountyMorris CountyMotley CountyNacogdoches CountyNavarro CountyNewton CountyNolan CountyNueces CountyOchiltree CountyOldham CountyOrange CountyPalo Pinto CountyPanola CountyParker CountyParmer CountyPecos CountyPolk CountyPotter CountyPresidio CountyRains CountyRandall CountyReagan CountyReal CountyRed River CountyReeves CountyRefugio CountyRoberts CountyRobertson CountyRockwall CountyRunnels CountyRusk CountySabine CountySan Augustine CountySan Jacinto CountySan Patricio CountySan Saba CountySchleicher CountyScurry CountyShackelford CountyShelby CountySherman CountySmith CountySomervell CountyStarr CountyStephens CountySterling CountyStonewall CountySutton CountySwisher CountyTarrant CountyTaylor CountyTerrell CountyTerry CountyThrockmorton CountyTitus CountyTom Green CountyTravis CountyTrinity CountyTyler CountyUpshur CountyUpton CountyUvalde CountyVal Verde CountyVan Zandt CountyVictoria CountyWalker CountyWaller CountyWard CountyWashington CountyWebb CountyWharton CountyWheeler CountyWichita CountyWilbarger CountyWillacy CountyWilliamson CountyWilson CountyWinkler CountyWise CountyWood CountyYoakum CountyYoung CountyZapata CountyZavala CountyHarrisDallasBexarTravisCollinFort BendWilliamsonMontgomeryEl PasoHidalgoBrazoriaBell
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom ยท arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Travis County: Tucker +305,102Dallas County: Tucker +301,502Harris County: Tucker +281,980Bexar County: Tucker +172,982El Paso County: Tucker +84,472Hidalgo County: Tucker +43,257Fort Bend County: Tucker +39,481Tarrant County: Tucker +38,463Williamson County: Tucker +23,059Hays County: Tucker +19,089Webb County: Tucker +16,883Cameron County: Tucker +16,462Starr County: Tucker +3,008Maverick County: Tucker +1,932Zavala County: Tucker +1,209Willacy County: Tucker +954Presidio County: Tucker +952Dimmit County: Tucker +931Duval County: Tucker +748Brooks County: Tucker +747Jim Hogg County: Tucker +507Zapata County: Tucker +412Brewster County: Tucker +110Frio County: Tucker +71Montgomery County: Sheets +105,998Parker County: Sheets +47,190Smith County: Sheets +37,947Comal County: Sheets +35,784Lubbock County: Sheets +35,477Johnson County: Sheets +33,390Randall County: Sheets +32,505Midland County: Sheets +28,912Grayson County: Sheets +28,374Galveston County: Sheets +27,630Ellis County: Sheets +26,601Brazoria County: Sheets +22,551Taylor County: Sheets +22,493McLennan County: Sheets +21,600Hunt County: Sheets +21,148Wise County: Sheets +21,075Henderson County: Sheets +20,651Rockwall County: Sheets +19,916Orange County: Sheets +19,745Denton County: Sheets +19,167Hood County: Sheets +19,069Van Zandt County: Sheets +17,565Hardin County: Sheets +17,154Kaufman County: Sheets +17,129Guadalupe County: Sheets +17,003Ector County: Sheets +16,967Tom Green County: Sheets +16,915Liberty County: Sheets +15,933Gregg County: Sheets +15,873Wood County: Sheets +14,463Wichita County: Sheets +14,352Angelina County: Sheets +14,092Bowie County: Sheets +13,696Kendall County: Sheets +13,595Kerr County: Sheets +12,948Burnet County: Sheets +12,439Chambers County: Sheets +12,349Harrison County: Sheets +12,316Victoria County: Sheets +12,002Cooke County: Sheets +11,553Upshur County: Sheets +11,415Polk County: Sheets +11,292Wilson County: Sheets +11,120Potter County: Sheets +10,871Rusk County: Sheets +10,799Lamar County: Sheets +10,750Cherokee County: Sheets +10,717Brazos County: Sheets +10,671Anderson County: Sheets +10,599Brown County: Sheets +10,595Erath County: Sheets +10,279Bell County: Sheets +9,343Fannin County: Sheets +9,233Hill County: Sheets +8,639Jasper County: Sheets +8,634Washington County: Sheets +8,599Gillespie County: Sheets +8,457Navarro County: Sheets +8,410Walker County: Sheets +8,382Hopkins County: Sheets +8,374Medina County: Sheets +8,352Austin County: Sheets +7,914Coryell County: Sheets +7,892Nacogdoches County: Sheets +7,787Palo Pinto County: Sheets +7,535Cass County: Sheets +7,508Grimes County: Sheets +7,010Montague County: Sheets +7,009Llano County: Sheets +7,004Bandera County: Sheets +6,999Fayette County: Sheets +6,970Wharton County: Sheets +6,818San Jacinto County: Sheets +6,743Lavaca County: Sheets +6,702San Patricio County: Sheets +6,242Panola County: Sheets +6,174Aransas County: Sheets +6,165Tyler County: Sheets +5,937Leon County: Sheets +5,860Atascosa County: Sheets +5,661Lampasas County: Sheets +5,541Hutchinson County: Sheets +5,484Waller County: Sheets +5,473Matagorda County: Sheets +5,428Eastland County: Sheets +5,342Young County: Sheets +5,316Gray County: Sheets +5,282Bosque County: Sheets +5,278Shelby County: Sheets +5,232Milam County: Sheets +5,089Freestone County: Sheets +5,046Burleson County: Sheets +4,925Howard County: Sheets +4,874Colorado County: Sheets +4,742Titus County: Sheets +4,702Hale County: Sheets +4,674Callahan County: Sheets +4,632Houston County: Sheets +4,505Jones County: Sheets +4,451DeWitt County: Sheets +4,447Hockley County: Sheets +4,316Lee County: Sheets +4,237Limestone County: Sheets +4,188Gaines County: Sheets +4,161Rains County: Sheets +4,010Trinity County: Sheets +3,962Comanche County: Sheets +3,957Clay County: Sheets +3,833Jackson County: Sheets +3,727Sabine County: Sheets +3,652Scurry County: Sheets +3,634Gonzales County: Sheets +3,532Andrews County: Sheets +3,527Blanco County: Sheets +3,518Bastrop County: Sheets +3,495Archer County: Sheets +3,336Robertson County: Sheets +3,238Calhoun County: Sheets +3,182Newton County: Sheets +3,097Franklin County: Sheets +3,014Live Oak County: Sheets +2,986Moore County: Sheets +2,950Madison County: Sheets +2,903Somervell County: Sheets +2,897Red River County: Sheets +2,832Jack County: Sheets +2,823Coleman County: Sheets +2,761Runnels County: Sheets +2,745Stephens County: Sheets +2,678Nolan County: Sheets +2,659Bee County: Sheets +2,642Hamilton County: Sheets +2,603Karnes County: Sheets +2,432Falls County: Sheets +2,381Camp County: Sheets +2,328Wilbarger County: Sheets +2,315Lamb County: Sheets +2,295Morris County: Sheets +2,153Carson County: Sheets +2,098McCulloch County: Sheets +2,092Ochiltree County: Sheets +2,036Goliad County: Sheets +1,947Terry County: Sheets +1,939Deaf Smith County: Sheets +1,932Marion County: Sheets +1,927Ward County: Sheets +1,882San Saba County: Sheets +1,851Dawson County: Sheets +1,848Uvalde County: Sheets +1,810Mills County: Sheets +1,778San Augustine County: Sheets +1,747Mitchell County: Sheets +1,694Wheeler County: Sheets +1,578Parmer County: Sheets +1,561Kimble County: Sheets +1,557Childress County: Sheets +1,549Delta County: Sheets +1,469Pecos County: Sheets +1,451Hartley County: Sheets +1,445Hansford County: Sheets +1,428Lynn County: Sheets +1,399Yoakum County: Sheets +1,398Haskell County: Sheets +1,365Mason County: Sheets +1,330Martin County: Sheets +1,238Val Verde County: Sheets +1,217Swisher County: Sheets +1,195Coke County: Sheets +1,194Shackelford County: Sheets +1,148Winkler County: Sheets +1,127Baylor County: Sheets +1,124Donley County: Sheets +1,086Floyd County: Sheets +1,085Real County: Sheets +1,058Castro County: Sheets +1,049Hemphill County: Sheets +1,042Dallam County: Sheets +1,032Garza County: Sheets +993Bailey County: Sheets +983Refugio County: Sheets +958Fisher County: Sheets +943Lipscomb County: Sheets +843Crane County: Sheets +838Hardeman County: Sheets +836Upton County: Sheets +826Armstrong County: Sheets +784Knox County: Sheets +760Concho County: Sheets +758Collingsworth County: Sheets +757Sutton County: Sheets +752Crosby County: Sheets +732Hall County: Sheets +724Sherman County: Sheets +663Oldham County: Sheets +653Collin County: Sheets +636Schleicher County: Sheets +602Throckmorton County: Sheets +601Crockett County: Sheets +592Kinney County: Sheets +582Caldwell County: Sheets +580Dickens County: Sheets +573Menard County: Sheets +556Reagan County: Sheets +538Jefferson County: Sheets +512Irion County: Sheets +510Briscoe County: Sheets +508Motley County: Sheets +481Edwards County: Sheets +464Glasscock County: Sheets +464Cochran County: Sheets +463Sterling County: Sheets +425Stonewall County: Sheets +390Roberts County: Sheets +389Cottle County: Sheets +386Reeves County: Sheets +361Hudspeth County: Sheets +308Foard County: Sheets +304Kent County: Sheets +281Borden County: Sheets +275Jim Wells County: Sheets +246McMullen County: Sheets +213Terrell County: Sheets +179Nueces County: Sheets +154Jeff Davis County: Sheets +150King County: Sheets +96Kleberg County: Sheets +67La Salle County: Sheets +29Kenedy County: Sheets +19Loving County: Sheets +19Culberson County: Sheets +14
Tucker +1,354,313 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide R +2.1, a 213,653 vote marginSheets +1,567,966 net votes from 230 counties

Projected statewide vote

9,998,925 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Nate Sheets R4,916,52549.2%
Clayton Tucker D4,702,86847.0%
Austin Kelly, Alfred Molison379,5303.8%
Total9,998,925100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

254 counties
CountyTuckerSheetsOtherTotalMargin
Statewide4,702,8644,916,517379,5359,998,916R +2.1
Harris County806,894524,91452,5461,384,354D +20.4
Dallas County525,056223,55429,536778,146D +38.8
Tarrant County365,746327,28327,343720,372D +5.3
Bexar County415,990243,00826,001684,999D +25.3
Travis County417,572112,47020,913550,955D +55.4
Collin County210,465211,10116,632438,198R +0.1
Denton County173,565192,73214,453380,750R +5.0
Fort Bend County167,423127,94211,653307,018D +12.9
Williamson County139,616116,55710,108266,281D +8.7
Montgomery County68,670174,6689,600252,938R +41.9
El Paso County153,94069,4688,814232,222D +36.4
Hidalgo County115,77772,5207,429195,726D +22.1
Brazoria County54,00776,5585,151135,716R +16.6
Galveston County51,07078,7005,120134,890R +20.5
Bell County50,49759,8404,353114,690R +8.2
Nueces County54,07454,2284,273112,575R +0.1
Hays County62,30043,2114,162109,673D +17.4
Lubbock County34,54870,0254,125108,698R +32.6
Cameron County59,23442,7724,025106,031D +15.5
Smith County24,34662,2933,41890,057R +42.1
McLennan County31,88153,4813,36888,730R +24.3
Comal County23,67259,4563,27986,407R +41.4
Ellis County25,72752,3283,07981,134R +32.8
Brazos County33,53244,2033,06780,802R +13.2
Jefferson County36,77137,2832,92276,976R +0.7
Parker County11,94659,1362,80573,887R +63.9
Guadalupe County25,29542,2982,66770,260R +24.2
Johnson County16,07049,4602,58668,116R +49.0
Webb County37,38420,5012,28560,170D +28.1
Randall County11,33743,8422,17757,356R +56.7
Kaufman County18,12735,2562,10755,490R +30.9
Grayson County11,97340,3472,06454,384R +52.2
Rockwall County14,63334,5491,94051,122R +39.0
Midland County10,02038,9321,93150,883R +56.8
Taylor County12,32834,8211,86149,010R +45.9
Gregg County11,63627,5091,54440,689R +39.0
Wichita County12,18326,5351,52740,245R +35.7
Tom Green County10,74827,6631,51639,927R +42.4
Hunt County7,91229,0601,45938,431R +55.0
Ector County8,84525,8121,36736,024R +47.1
Bastrop County15,19818,6931,33735,228R +9.9
Henderson County5,74226,3931,26733,402R +61.8
Bowie County8,68422,3801,22632,290R +42.4
Hood County5,42924,4981,18031,107R +61.3
Victoria County8,84020,8421,17130,853R +38.9
Orange County4,89824,6431,16530,706R +64.3
Wise County4,20925,2841,16330,656R +68.8
Angelina County7,27221,3641,13029,766R +47.3
Potter County8,76819,6391,12129,528R +36.8
Liberty County4,70120,6341,00026,335R +60.5
Harrison County6,17318,48997425,636R +48.0
Kerr County5,59918,54795325,099R +51.6
Kendall County5,13718,73294224,811R +54.8
Van Zandt County2,89420,45992224,275R +72.4
Walker County7,44315,82591824,186R +34.7
Burnet County5,28217,72190723,910R +52.0
Hardin County2,71719,87189223,480R +73.1
Nacogdoches County7,05214,83986422,755R +34.2
Coryell County6,97014,86286222,694R +34.8
Wilson County5,29116,41185622,558R +49.3
San Patricio County7,61013,85284722,309R +28.0
Waller County7,64213,11581921,576R +25.4
Wood County2,91017,37380021,083R +68.6
Medina County5,83614,18879120,815R +40.1
Polk County4,16315,45577420,392R +55.4
Chambers County3,15915,50873719,404R +63.6
Rusk County3,67414,47371618,863R +57.3
Lamar County3,56514,31570618,586R +57.9
Anderson County3,45914,05869118,208R +58.2
Cherokee County3,14813,86567117,684R +60.6
Cooke County2,63314,18666317,482R +66.1
Navarro County4,07612,48665417,216R +48.9
Upshur County2,38213,79763716,816R +67.9
Erath County2,59712,87661116,084R +63.9
Washington County3,35411,95360415,911R +54.0
Atascosa County4,78110,44260115,824R +35.8
Brown County1,81812,41356114,792R +71.6
Caldwell County6,6957,27555214,522R +4.0
Gillespie County2,73611,19355014,479R +58.4
Wharton County3,53710,35554814,440R +47.2
Starr County8,4085,40054614,354D +21.0
Hopkins County2,68111,05554214,278R +58.6
Fannin County2,12411,35753114,012R +65.9
Hill County2,41311,05253113,996R +61.7
Jasper County2,09710,73150613,334R +64.8
Maverick County7,3095,37750013,186D +14.7
Austin County2,26610,18049112,937R +61.2
Val Verde County5,5476,76448512,796R +9.5
Jim Wells County5,6875,93346012,080R +2.0
Llano County2,2999,30345812,060R +58.1
Cass County1,9709,47845211,900R +63.1
Matagorda County2,9528,38044611,778R +46.1
Grimes County2,1169,12644411,686R +60.0
Fayette County2,1219,09144211,654R +59.8
Bandera County2,0729,07143911,582R +60.4
Aransas County2,3828,54743211,361R +54.3
Palo Pinto County1,6709,20543011,305R +66.7
San Jacinto County1,9728,71542311,110R +60.7
Milam County2,1427,2313699,742R +52.2
Lampasas County1,8557,3963659,616R +57.6
Panola County1,5377,7113659,613R +64.2
Kleberg County4,5654,6323639,560R +0.7
Montague County9257,9343509,209R +76.1
Lavaca County1,0367,7383469,120R +73.5
Titus County1,9526,6543408,946R +52.6
Uvalde County3,3495,1593368,844R +20.5
Howard County1,7456,6193308,694R +56.0
Bee County2,8325,4743278,633R +30.6
Colorado County1,7706,5123278,609R +55.1
Hale County1,7336,4073218,461R +55.2
Shelby County1,4496,6813208,450R +61.9
Houston County1,7796,2843198,382R +53.8
Tyler County1,0626,9993188,379R +70.8
Bosque County1,3616,6393168,316R +63.5
Limestone County1,7705,9583058,033R +52.1
Burleson County1,3086,2332977,838R +62.8
Freestone County1,2216,2672957,783R +64.8
Leon County7456,6052907,640R +76.7
Lee County1,3675,6042757,246R +58.5
Eastland County8036,1452747,222R +74.0
Young County8076,1232747,204R +73.8
Hutchinson County7206,2042747,198R +76.2
Blanco County1,6575,1752707,102R +49.5
DeWitt County1,1815,6282697,078R +62.8
Robertson County1,7124,9502636,925R +46.8
Calhoun County1,7114,8932606,864R +46.4
Hockley County1,1335,4492606,842R +63.1
Gray County6195,9012576,777R +77.9
Gonzales County1,4194,9512516,621R +53.3
Jones County8775,3282456,450R +69.0
Trinity County1,0344,9962386,268R +63.2
Callahan County6045,2362316,071R +76.3
Falls County1,5613,9422175,720R +41.6
Rains County7294,7392165,684R +70.5
Comanche County7074,6642125,583R +70.9
Jackson County7914,5182095,518R +67.5
Willacy County3,0482,0942035,345D +17.8
Gaines County4034,5641955,162R +80.6
Scurry County6354,2691935,097R +71.3
Clay County5134,3461925,051R +75.9
Newton County8713,9681915,030R +61.6
Andrews County6414,1681904,999R +70.5
Red River County9603,7921884,940R +57.3
Sabine County4994,1511844,834R +75.6
Karnes County1,0703,5021804,752R +51.2
Frio County2,3112,2401794,730D +1.5
Madison County8233,7261804,729R +61.4
Morris County1,1673,3201774,664R +46.2
Nolan County9033,5621764,641R +57.3
Moore County7423,6921754,609R +64.0
Camp County1,0333,3611744,568R +51.0
Franklin County6703,6841724,526R +66.6
Live Oak County6643,6501714,485R +66.6
Somervell County7053,6021694,476R +64.7
Archer County4033,7391644,306R +77.5
Brewster County2,0981,9881604,246D +2.6
Pecos County1,2782,7291574,164R +34.9
Wilbarger County7823,0971534,032R +57.4
Zapata County2,1411,7291524,022D +10.2
Marion County9692,8961524,017R +48.0
Deaf Smith County9362,8681503,954R +48.9
Duval County2,2681,5201503,938D +19.0
Hamilton County5473,1501473,844R +67.7
Lamb County6332,9281403,701R +62.0
Runnels County3883,1331393,660R +75.0
Coleman County3553,1161373,608R +76.5
Goliad County7232,6701333,526R +55.2
Jack County2803,1031353,518R +80.3
Stephens County2732,9511273,351R +79.9
San Augustine County7122,4591253,296R +53.0
Dawson County6252,4731223,220R +57.4
Ward County5802,4621203,162R +59.5
Terry County5422,4811193,142R +61.7
Dimmit County1,9681,0371193,124D +29.8
Zavala County2,0808711173,068D +39.4
McCulloch County4002,4921143,006R +69.6
Reeves County1,2651,6261143,005R +12.0
Carson County2432,3411022,686R +78.1
Refugio County8031,7611012,665R +35.9
Ochiltree County2232,259982,580R +78.9
Mitchell County3192,013922,424R +69.8
San Saba County2322,083922,407R +76.9
Brooks County1,505758892,352D +31.7
Mills County2232,001882,312R +76.9
Parmer County3161,877862,279R +68.5
Delta County3501,819852,254R +65.1
Mason County3901,720842,194R +60.6
Childress County2351,784792,098R +73.8
Kimble County2281,785802,093R +74.4
Lynn County3051,704792,088R +67.0
Swisher County4001,595792,074R +57.6
Haskell County2911,656772,024R +67.5
Yoakum County2731,671772,021R +69.2
La Salle County950979762,005R +1.4
Wheeler County1471,725741,946R +81.1
Presidio County1,388436721,896D +50.2
Castro County3661,415701,851R +56.7
Hartley County1571,602691,828R +79.0
Floyd County2961,381671,744R +62.2
Hansford County1251,553661,744R +81.9
Winkler County2711,398671,736R +64.9
Martin County2131,451661,730R +71.6
Bailey County3141,297631,674R +58.8
Crosby County4001,132601,592R +46.0
Jim Hogg County1,009502591,570D +32.2
Real County2241,282591,565R +67.6
Fisher County2771,220591,556R +60.6
Coke County1511,345581,554R +76.8
Baylor County1541,278561,488R +75.5
Garza County2171,210551,482R +67.0
Shackelford County1201,268561,444R +79.5
Hemphill County1701,212541,436R +72.6
Donley County1401,226541,420R +76.5
Dallam County1471,179531,379R +74.8
Kinney County332914501,296R +45.0
Crockett County305897481,250R +47.4
Crane County1761,014471,237R +67.8
Sutton County216968461,230R +61.1
Hardeman County1661,002461,214R +68.9
Knox County187947441,178R +64.5
Upton County135961441,140R +72.5
Concho County161919421,122R +67.6
Lipscomb County98941411,080R +78.1
Jeff Davis County431581401,052R +14.2
Collingsworth County116873391,028R +73.7
Hall County131855391,025R +70.7
Schleicher County185787381,010R +59.6
Armstrong County7085436960R +81.7
Hudspeth County30060836944R +32.7
Menard County14169734872R +63.8
Dickens County11769032839R +68.3
Oldham County6872131820R +79.6
Reagan County12566332820R +65.6
Sherman County6072331814R +81.4
Throckmorton County6366429756R +79.4
Culberson County34736128736R +1.9
Cochran County12258528735R +63.0
Irion County8559526706R +72.3
Edwards County8554924658R +70.4
Briscoe County4955724630R +80.6
Stonewall County9248224598R +65.3
Motley County3551621572R +84.1
Cottle County7946522566R +68.1
Glasscock County3249621549R +84.7
Sterling County3145619506R +83.8
Foard County9139518504R +60.2
Roberts County1240116429R +90.8
Terrell County9627515386R +46.3
Kent County4032115376R +74.7
Borden County1729213322R +85.6
McMullen County2423711272R +78.4
King County51014110R +87.1
Kenedy County2241366R +28.6
Loving County322126R +73.4

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +3.6R +7.9R +2.1

80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.6 and R +7.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorR +0.3
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +0.6
Blend of every legD +0.9
With incumbency and primary unityD +0.9
With polls, 65% weightR +2.1

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.6 and R +7.9.

Polls of the race

6 polls
R+10R+8R+6R+4R+2EvenD+2SepOctTucker aheadSheets aheadActiVote, 400, R +0.6, 5 days agoUniversity of Houston Hobby School, 2,000, R +6.0, 8 days agoStratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R), 865, R +6.0, 28 days agoTexas Public Opinion Research, 1,007, R +2.0, 30 days agoTexas Southern University, 1,800, R +6.0, 33 days agoTexas Public Opinion Research, 1,000, R +4.0, 59 days agoR +4.0poll trendR +3.9average
PollsterSampleEndedTuckerSheetsMargin
ActiVote400 LV2026-10-1749.750.3R +0.6
University of Houston Hobby School2,000 LV2026-10-144046R +6.0
Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R)865 LV2026-09-244147R +6.0
Texas Public Opinion Research1,007 LV2026-09-224446R +2.0
Texas Southern University1,800 LV2026-09-193945R +6.0
Texas Public Opinion Research1,000 LV2026-08-244044R +4.0