2026 forecast · Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7
Kyle Hawkins is favored to win Texas's justice, supreme court, place 7 race.
Kristen Hawkins vs Kyle Hawkins, with Kyle Hawkins running again. The model has Hawkins ahead by 3.0 points, with a 72 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.0Polls R +7.6Updated October 22, 2026
Kristen Hawkins
Democrat
47.0%
4,699,148 projected votes
Kyle Hawkins
Republican
50.0%
5,002,365 projected votes
72%Hawkins
28%Hawkins
Hawkins favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Hawkins wins about 72 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hawkins +1,317,152 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide R +3.0, a 303,216 vote marginHawkins +1,620,368 net votes from 230 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hawkins R | 5,002,365 | 50.0% |
| Kristen Hawkins D | 4,699,148 | 47.0% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Hawkins | Hawkins | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,699,145 | 5,002,361 | 297,410 | 9,998,916 | R +3.0 |
| Harris County | 807,319 | 535,859 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +19.6 |
| Dallas County | 526,402 | 228,599 | 23,145 | 778,146 | D +38.3 |
| Tarrant County | 365,276 | 333,669 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +4.4 |
| Bexar County | 416,424 | 248,200 | 20,375 | 684,999 | D +24.6 |
| Travis County | 419,344 | 115,223 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +55.2 |
| Collin County | 210,037 | 215,127 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +1.2 |
| Denton County | 173,111 | 196,314 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +6.1 |
| Fort Bend County | 167,350 | 130,536 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +12.0 |
| Williamson County | 139,485 | 118,876 | 7,920 | 266,281 | D +7.7 |
| Montgomery County | 68,139 | 177,276 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +43.1 |
| El Paso County | 154,303 | 71,011 | 6,908 | 232,222 | D +35.9 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,869 | 74,035 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +21.4 |
| Brazoria County | 53,790 | 77,890 | 4,036 | 135,716 | R +17.8 |
| Galveston County | 50,830 | 80,048 | 4,012 | 134,890 | R +21.7 |
| Bell County | 50,351 | 60,927 | 3,412 | 114,690 | R +9.2 |
| Nueces County | 53,973 | 55,254 | 3,348 | 112,575 | R +1.1 |
| Hays County | 62,305 | 44,106 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +16.6 |
| Lubbock County | 34,331 | 71,134 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +33.9 |
| Cameron County | 59,234 | 43,644 | 3,153 | 106,031 | D +14.7 |
| Smith County | 24,161 | 63,218 | 2,678 | 90,057 | R +43.4 |
| McLennan County | 31,722 | 54,369 | 2,639 | 88,730 | R +25.5 |
| Comal County | 23,486 | 60,350 | 2,571 | 86,407 | R +42.7 |
| Ellis County | 25,566 | 53,155 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +34.0 |
| Brazos County | 33,412 | 44,987 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +14.3 |
| Jefferson County | 36,699 | 37,988 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +1.7 |
| Parker County | 11,810 | 59,879 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +65.1 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,163 | 43,008 | 2,089 | 70,260 | R +25.4 |
| Johnson County | 15,933 | 50,157 | 2,026 | 68,116 | R +50.2 |
| Webb County | 37,439 | 20,941 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +27.4 |
| Randall County | 11,224 | 44,426 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +57.9 |
| Kaufman County | 18,020 | 35,819 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +32.1 |
| Grayson County | 11,863 | 40,903 | 1,618 | 54,384 | R +53.4 |
| Rockwall County | 14,526 | 35,076 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +40.2 |
| Midland County | 9,921 | 39,448 | 1,514 | 50,883 | R +58.0 |
| Taylor County | 12,230 | 35,322 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +47.1 |
| Gregg County | 11,554 | 27,924 | 1,211 | 40,689 | R +40.2 |
| Wichita County | 12,104 | 26,944 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +36.9 |
| Tom Green County | 10,667 | 28,073 | 1,187 | 39,927 | R +43.6 |
| Hunt County | 7,837 | 29,451 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +56.2 |
| Ector County | 8,773 | 26,180 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +48.3 |
| Bastrop County | 15,151 | 19,030 | 1,047 | 35,228 | R +11.0 |
| Henderson County | 5,682 | 26,727 | 993 | 33,402 | R +63.0 |
| Bowie County | 8,618 | 22,712 | 960 | 32,290 | R +43.6 |
| Hood County | 5,370 | 24,812 | 925 | 31,107 | R +62.5 |
| Victoria County | 8,778 | 21,158 | 917 | 30,853 | R +40.1 |
| Orange County | 4,844 | 24,949 | 913 | 30,706 | R +65.5 |
| Wise County | 4,158 | 25,587 | 911 | 30,656 | R +69.9 |
| Angelina County | 7,211 | 21,669 | 886 | 29,766 | R +48.6 |
| Potter County | 8,711 | 19,939 | 878 | 29,528 | R +38.0 |
| Liberty County | 4,654 | 20,898 | 783 | 26,335 | R +61.7 |
| Harrison County | 6,121 | 18,753 | 762 | 25,636 | R +49.3 |
| Kerr County | 5,548 | 18,804 | 747 | 25,099 | R +52.8 |
| Kendall County | 5,087 | 18,986 | 738 | 24,811 | R +56.0 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,859 | 20,694 | 722 | 24,275 | R +73.5 |
| Walker County | 7,399 | 16,068 | 719 | 24,186 | R +35.9 |
| Burnet County | 5,233 | 17,966 | 711 | 23,910 | R +53.3 |
| Hardin County | 2,682 | 20,099 | 699 | 23,480 | R +74.2 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,008 | 15,070 | 677 | 22,755 | R +35.4 |
| Coryell County | 6,929 | 15,090 | 675 | 22,694 | R +36.0 |
| Wilson County | 5,244 | 16,644 | 670 | 22,558 | R +50.5 |
| San Patricio County | 7,567 | 14,078 | 664 | 22,309 | R +29.2 |
| Waller County | 7,602 | 13,333 | 641 | 21,576 | R +26.6 |
| Wood County | 2,876 | 17,580 | 627 | 21,083 | R +69.8 |
| Medina County | 5,793 | 14,403 | 619 | 20,815 | R +41.4 |
| Polk County | 4,123 | 15,662 | 607 | 20,392 | R +56.6 |
| Chambers County | 3,123 | 15,704 | 577 | 19,404 | R +64.8 |
| Rusk County | 3,638 | 14,664 | 561 | 18,863 | R +58.5 |
| Lamar County | 3,529 | 14,503 | 554 | 18,586 | R +59.0 |
| Anderson County | 3,427 | 14,240 | 541 | 18,208 | R +59.4 |
| Cherokee County | 3,115 | 14,043 | 526 | 17,684 | R +61.8 |
| Cooke County | 2,603 | 14,360 | 519 | 17,482 | R +67.3 |
| Navarro County | 4,042 | 12,661 | 513 | 17,216 | R +50.1 |
| Upshur County | 2,354 | 13,963 | 499 | 16,816 | R +69.0 |
| Erath County | 2,569 | 13,037 | 478 | 16,084 | R +65.1 |
| Washington County | 3,323 | 12,115 | 473 | 15,911 | R +55.3 |
| Atascosa County | 4,749 | 10,604 | 471 | 15,824 | R +37.0 |
| Brown County | 1,796 | 12,556 | 440 | 14,792 | R +72.8 |
| Caldwell County | 6,680 | 7,410 | 432 | 14,522 | R +5.0 |
| Gillespie County | 2,708 | 11,341 | 430 | 14,479 | R +59.6 |
| Wharton County | 3,507 | 10,503 | 430 | 14,440 | R +48.5 |
| Starr County | 8,413 | 5,514 | 427 | 14,354 | D +20.2 |
| Hopkins County | 2,654 | 11,199 | 425 | 14,278 | R +59.9 |
| Fannin County | 2,100 | 11,496 | 416 | 14,012 | R +67.0 |
| Hill County | 2,387 | 11,192 | 417 | 13,996 | R +62.9 |
| Jasper County | 2,073 | 10,864 | 397 | 13,334 | R +65.9 |
| Maverick County | 7,307 | 5,487 | 392 | 13,186 | D +13.8 |
| Austin County | 2,241 | 10,311 | 385 | 12,937 | R +62.4 |
| Val Verde County | 5,529 | 6,886 | 381 | 12,796 | R +10.6 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,675 | 6,045 | 360 | 12,080 | R +3.1 |
| Llano County | 2,276 | 9,425 | 359 | 12,060 | R +59.3 |
| Cass County | 1,948 | 9,597 | 355 | 11,900 | R +64.3 |
| Matagorda County | 2,928 | 8,501 | 349 | 11,778 | R +47.3 |
| Grimes County | 2,094 | 9,245 | 347 | 11,686 | R +61.2 |
| Fayette County | 2,099 | 9,208 | 347 | 11,654 | R +61.0 |
| Bandera County | 2,050 | 9,188 | 344 | 11,582 | R +61.6 |
| Aransas County | 2,360 | 8,663 | 338 | 11,361 | R +55.5 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,651 | 9,317 | 337 | 11,305 | R +67.8 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,952 | 8,827 | 331 | 11,110 | R +61.9 |
| Milam County | 2,122 | 7,330 | 290 | 9,742 | R +53.5 |
| Lampasas County | 1,836 | 7,494 | 286 | 9,616 | R +58.8 |
| Panola County | 1,520 | 7,807 | 286 | 9,613 | R +65.4 |
| Kleberg County | 4,557 | 4,719 | 284 | 9,560 | R +1.7 |
| Montague County | 913 | 8,022 | 274 | 9,209 | R +77.2 |
| Lavaca County | 1,023 | 7,826 | 271 | 9,120 | R +74.6 |
| Titus County | 1,935 | 6,745 | 266 | 8,946 | R +53.8 |
| Uvalde County | 3,334 | 5,247 | 263 | 8,844 | R +21.6 |
| Howard County | 1,729 | 6,706 | 259 | 8,694 | R +57.3 |
| Bee County | 2,816 | 5,560 | 257 | 8,633 | R +31.8 |
| Colorado County | 1,753 | 6,600 | 256 | 8,609 | R +56.3 |
| Hale County | 1,717 | 6,492 | 252 | 8,461 | R +56.4 |
| Shelby County | 1,433 | 6,766 | 251 | 8,450 | R +63.1 |
| Houston County | 1,763 | 6,369 | 250 | 8,382 | R +55.0 |
| Tyler County | 1,049 | 7,080 | 250 | 8,379 | R +72.0 |
| Bosque County | 1,346 | 6,723 | 247 | 8,316 | R +64.6 |
| Limestone County | 1,754 | 6,040 | 239 | 8,033 | R +53.4 |
| Burleson County | 1,293 | 6,312 | 233 | 7,838 | R +64.0 |
| Freestone County | 1,207 | 6,344 | 232 | 7,783 | R +66.0 |
| Leon County | 735 | 6,678 | 227 | 7,640 | R +77.8 |
| Lee County | 1,353 | 5,677 | 216 | 7,246 | R +59.7 |
| Eastland County | 792 | 6,214 | 216 | 7,222 | R +75.1 |
| Young County | 797 | 6,193 | 214 | 7,204 | R +74.9 |
| Hutchinson County | 711 | 6,273 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.3 |
| Blanco County | 1,642 | 5,249 | 211 | 7,102 | R +50.8 |
| DeWitt County | 1,168 | 5,699 | 211 | 7,078 | R +64.0 |
| Robertson County | 1,697 | 5,022 | 206 | 6,925 | R +48.0 |
| Calhoun County | 1,697 | 4,964 | 203 | 6,864 | R +47.6 |
| Hockley County | 1,120 | 5,518 | 204 | 6,842 | R +64.3 |
| Gray County | 611 | 5,964 | 202 | 6,777 | R +79.0 |
| Gonzales County | 1,406 | 5,018 | 197 | 6,621 | R +54.5 |
| Jones County | 867 | 5,391 | 192 | 6,450 | R +70.2 |
| Trinity County | 1,022 | 5,059 | 187 | 6,268 | R +64.4 |
| Callahan County | 597 | 5,294 | 180 | 6,071 | R +77.4 |
| Falls County | 1,549 | 4,000 | 171 | 5,720 | R +42.9 |
| Rains County | 720 | 4,795 | 169 | 5,684 | R +71.7 |
| Comanche County | 698 | 4,719 | 166 | 5,583 | R +72.0 |
| Jackson County | 781 | 4,572 | 165 | 5,518 | R +68.7 |
| Willacy County | 3,049 | 2,137 | 159 | 5,345 | D +17.1 |
| Gaines County | 397 | 4,612 | 153 | 5,162 | R +81.6 |
| Scurry County | 627 | 4,318 | 152 | 5,097 | R +72.4 |
| Clay County | 506 | 4,395 | 150 | 5,051 | R +77.0 |
| Newton County | 861 | 4,019 | 150 | 5,030 | R +62.8 |
| Andrews County | 633 | 4,217 | 149 | 4,999 | R +71.7 |
| Red River County | 950 | 3,842 | 148 | 4,940 | R +58.5 |
| Sabine County | 492 | 4,198 | 144 | 4,834 | R +76.7 |
| Karnes County | 1,061 | 3,550 | 141 | 4,752 | R +52.4 |
| Frio County | 2,307 | 2,282 | 141 | 4,730 | D +0.5 |
| Madison County | 814 | 3,774 | 141 | 4,729 | R +62.6 |
| Morris County | 1,158 | 3,368 | 138 | 4,664 | R +47.4 |
| Nolan County | 894 | 3,608 | 139 | 4,641 | R +58.5 |
| Moore County | 734 | 3,738 | 137 | 4,609 | R +65.2 |
| Camp County | 1,024 | 3,408 | 136 | 4,568 | R +52.2 |
| Franklin County | 662 | 3,729 | 135 | 4,526 | R +67.8 |
| Live Oak County | 657 | 3,695 | 133 | 4,485 | R +67.7 |
| Somervell County | 696 | 3,647 | 133 | 4,476 | R +65.9 |
| Archer County | 398 | 3,780 | 128 | 4,306 | R +78.5 |
| Brewster County | 2,094 | 2,026 | 126 | 4,246 | D +1.6 |
| Pecos County | 1,270 | 2,771 | 123 | 4,164 | R +36.0 |
| Wilbarger County | 775 | 3,138 | 119 | 4,032 | R +58.6 |
| Zapata County | 2,139 | 1,764 | 119 | 4,022 | D +9.3 |
| Marion County | 960 | 2,937 | 120 | 4,017 | R +49.2 |
| Deaf Smith County | 929 | 2,908 | 117 | 3,954 | R +50.1 |
| Duval County | 2,269 | 1,552 | 117 | 3,938 | D +18.2 |
| Hamilton County | 541 | 3,188 | 115 | 3,844 | R +68.9 |
| Lamb County | 626 | 2,965 | 110 | 3,701 | R +63.2 |
| Runnels County | 383 | 3,168 | 109 | 3,660 | R +76.1 |
| Coleman County | 350 | 3,150 | 108 | 3,608 | R +77.6 |
| Goliad County | 716 | 2,706 | 104 | 3,526 | R +56.4 |
| Jack County | 277 | 3,136 | 105 | 3,518 | R +81.3 |
| Stephens County | 270 | 2,982 | 99 | 3,351 | R +80.9 |
| San Augustine County | 705 | 2,493 | 98 | 3,296 | R +54.2 |
| Dawson County | 619 | 2,506 | 95 | 3,220 | R +58.6 |
| Ward County | 574 | 2,494 | 94 | 3,162 | R +60.7 |
| Terry County | 536 | 2,512 | 94 | 3,142 | R +62.9 |
| Dimmit County | 1,971 | 1,060 | 93 | 3,124 | D +29.2 |
| Zavala County | 2,086 | 890 | 92 | 3,068 | D +39.0 |
| McCulloch County | 395 | 2,522 | 89 | 3,006 | R +70.7 |
| Reeves County | 1,260 | 1,655 | 90 | 3,005 | R +13.2 |
| Carson County | 239 | 2,367 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.2 |
| Refugio County | 798 | 1,788 | 79 | 2,665 | R +37.1 |
| Ochiltree County | 220 | 2,283 | 77 | 2,580 | R +79.9 |
| Mitchell County | 316 | 2,036 | 72 | 2,424 | R +71.0 |
| San Saba County | 229 | 2,106 | 72 | 2,407 | R +78.0 |
| Brooks County | 1,508 | 775 | 69 | 2,352 | D +31.1 |
| Mills County | 220 | 2,023 | 69 | 2,312 | R +78.0 |
| Parmer County | 312 | 1,899 | 68 | 2,279 | R +69.6 |
| Delta County | 346 | 1,841 | 67 | 2,254 | R +66.3 |
| Mason County | 386 | 1,743 | 65 | 2,194 | R +61.8 |
| Childress County | 232 | 1,804 | 62 | 2,098 | R +74.9 |
| Kimble County | 225 | 1,805 | 63 | 2,093 | R +75.5 |
| Lynn County | 302 | 1,725 | 61 | 2,088 | R +68.2 |
| Swisher County | 396 | 1,616 | 62 | 2,074 | R +58.8 |
| Haskell County | 288 | 1,676 | 60 | 2,024 | R +68.6 |
| Yoakum County | 270 | 1,691 | 60 | 2,021 | R +70.3 |
| La Salle County | 948 | 997 | 60 | 2,005 | R +2.4 |
| Wheeler County | 145 | 1,743 | 58 | 1,946 | R +82.1 |
| Presidio County | 1,393 | 446 | 57 | 1,896 | D +50.0 |
| Castro County | 362 | 1,434 | 55 | 1,851 | R +57.9 |
| Hartley County | 155 | 1,619 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.1 |
| Floyd County | 293 | 1,399 | 52 | 1,744 | R +63.4 |
| Hansford County | 123 | 1,569 | 52 | 1,744 | R +82.9 |
| Winkler County | 268 | 1,415 | 53 | 1,736 | R +66.1 |
| Martin County | 210 | 1,468 | 52 | 1,730 | R +72.7 |
| Bailey County | 311 | 1,314 | 49 | 1,674 | R +59.9 |
| Crosby County | 396 | 1,148 | 48 | 1,592 | R +47.2 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,011 | 513 | 46 | 1,570 | D +31.7 |
| Real County | 221 | 1,297 | 47 | 1,565 | R +68.7 |
| Fisher County | 274 | 1,236 | 46 | 1,556 | R +61.8 |
| Coke County | 149 | 1,360 | 45 | 1,554 | R +77.9 |
| Baylor County | 152 | 1,292 | 44 | 1,488 | R +76.6 |
| Garza County | 214 | 1,224 | 44 | 1,482 | R +68.1 |
| Shackelford County | 119 | 1,282 | 43 | 1,444 | R +80.6 |
| Hemphill County | 168 | 1,226 | 42 | 1,436 | R +73.7 |
| Donley County | 138 | 1,240 | 42 | 1,420 | R +77.6 |
| Dallam County | 146 | 1,192 | 41 | 1,379 | R +75.9 |
| Kinney County | 329 | 928 | 39 | 1,296 | R +46.2 |
| Crockett County | 302 | 910 | 38 | 1,250 | R +48.6 |
| Crane County | 174 | 1,026 | 37 | 1,237 | R +68.9 |
| Sutton County | 213 | 981 | 36 | 1,230 | R +62.3 |
| Hardeman County | 164 | 1,014 | 36 | 1,214 | R +70.0 |
| Knox County | 184 | 959 | 35 | 1,178 | R +65.7 |
| Upton County | 133 | 972 | 35 | 1,140 | R +73.6 |
| Concho County | 159 | 930 | 33 | 1,122 | R +68.7 |
| Lipscomb County | 96 | 952 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.2 |
| Jeff Davis County | 430 | 591 | 31 | 1,052 | R +15.4 |
| Collingsworth County | 114 | 883 | 31 | 1,028 | R +74.8 |
| Hall County | 129 | 865 | 31 | 1,025 | R +71.8 |
| Schleicher County | 183 | 797 | 30 | 1,010 | R +60.8 |
| Armstrong County | 69 | 863 | 28 | 960 | R +82.7 |
| Hudspeth County | 298 | 618 | 28 | 944 | R +33.9 |
| Menard County | 140 | 706 | 26 | 872 | R +65.0 |
| Dickens County | 116 | 698 | 25 | 839 | R +69.5 |
| Oldham County | 67 | 728 | 25 | 820 | R +80.7 |
| Reagan County | 124 | 671 | 25 | 820 | R +66.8 |
| Sherman County | 60 | 730 | 24 | 814 | R +82.4 |
| Throckmorton County | 63 | 671 | 22 | 756 | R +80.5 |
| Culberson County | 346 | 368 | 22 | 736 | R +3.0 |
| Cochran County | 121 | 592 | 22 | 735 | R +64.2 |
| Irion County | 83 | 602 | 21 | 706 | R +73.4 |
| Edwards County | 84 | 555 | 19 | 658 | R +71.6 |
| Briscoe County | 48 | 563 | 19 | 630 | R +81.7 |
| Stonewall County | 91 | 488 | 19 | 598 | R +66.5 |
| Motley County | 34 | 521 | 17 | 572 | R +85.1 |
| Cottle County | 79 | 470 | 17 | 566 | R +69.3 |
| Glasscock County | 31 | 501 | 17 | 549 | R +85.7 |
| Sterling County | 31 | 460 | 15 | 506 | R +84.8 |
| Foard County | 90 | 400 | 14 | 504 | R +61.4 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.8 |
| Terrell County | 96 | 279 | 11 | 386 | R +47.5 |
| Kent County | 40 | 324 | 12 | 376 | R +75.8 |
| Borden County | 17 | 295 | 10 | 322 | R +86.5 |
| McMullen County | 24 | 240 | 8 | 272 | R +79.5 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.0 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +29.8 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +74.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.7 and R +9.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.1 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +3.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.7 and R +9.8.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hawkins | Hawkins | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 46.2 | 53.8 | R +7.6 |