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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Proposition NN

Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding

Raises the TABOR revenue cap and keeps about 4.6 billion in surplus revenue for K-12 education. The forecast has Yes at 67.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Very likely to passStatute referred by the legislatureEducationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
67.1%
80% range 55 to 78
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
67.1% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
67.1% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Referred by Legislature (SB26-135). Colorado Democratic Party supports.

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Proposition NN by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Denver County: Yes +161,879Jefferson County: Yes +113,597Arapahoe County: Yes +103,439Boulder County: Yes +86,934El Paso County: Yes +83,084Larimer County: Yes +67,824Adams County: Yes +62,652Douglas County: Yes +52,010Weld County: Yes +31,448Pueblo County: Yes +20,402Mesa County: Yes +15,741Broomfield County: Yes +15,627La Plata County: Yes +11,157Eagle County: Yes +9,225Garfield County: Yes +7,907Summit County: Yes +6,577Routt County: Yes +5,554Pitkin County: Yes +4,469Chaffee County: Yes +4,131Gunnison County: Yes +3,812Montrose County: Yes +3,645Fremont County: Yes +3,127Montezuma County: Yes +2,817Delta County: Yes +2,544Grand County: Yes +2,453Park County: Yes +2,398Teller County: Yes +2,149San Miguel County: Yes +2,013Archuleta County: Yes +1,915Clear Creek County: Yes +1,887Las Animas County: Yes +1,691Alamosa County: Yes +1,683Otero County: Yes +1,501Ouray County: Yes +1,227Elbert County: Yes +1,193Lake County: Yes +1,171Gilpin County: Yes +1,165Rio Grande County: Yes +1,094Huerfano County: Yes +1,023Morgan County: Yes +1,018Saguache County: Yes +922Conejos County: Yes +801Costilla County: Yes +614Custer County: Yes +487Logan County: Yes +407Prowers County: Yes +370Bent County: Yes +283San Juan County: Yes +176Crowley County: Yes +162Hinsdale County: Yes +128Mineral County: Yes +114Dolores County: Yes +88Sedgwick County: Yes +55Jackson County: Yes +34Moffat County: Yes +27Phillips County: Yes +10Rio Blanco County: Yes +1Washington County: No +220Cheyenne County: No +108Kit Carson County: No +104Baca County: No +91Kiowa County: No +63Yuma County: No +54Lincoln County: No +14
Yes +909,862 net votes from 57 countiesStatewide Yes +34.2, a 909,208 vote marginNo +654 net votes from 7 counties

Projected vote

2,661,960 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,785,58467.1%
No876,37632.9%
Total2,661,960100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County199,642116,558316,20063.1%
Denver County237,41075,531312,94175.9%
Jefferson County209,49495,897305,39168.6%
Arapahoe County189,86486,425276,28968.7%
Douglas County121,03769,027190,06463.7%
Adams County125,28262,630187,91266.7%
Larimer County126,78658,962185,74868.3%
Boulder County127,77340,839168,61275.8%
Weld County87,70156,253143,95460.9%
Mesa County46,29830,55776,85560.2%
Pueblo County46,53826,13672,67464.0%
Broomfield County27,07211,44538,51770.3%
La Plata County20,7009,54330,24368.4%
Garfield County16,8008,89325,69365.4%
Eagle County16,4337,20823,64169.5%
Fremont County12,5779,45022,02757.1%
Montrose County12,5888,94321,53158.5%
Delta County9,4596,91516,37457.8%
Elbert County8,3067,11315,41953.9%
Summit County10,7784,20114,97972.0%
Teller County7,9725,82313,79557.8%
Routt County9,6724,11813,79070.1%
Montezuma County7,8555,03812,89360.9%
Chaffee County7,9643,83311,79767.5%
Morgan County6,1405,12211,26254.5%
Park County6,2743,87610,15061.8%
Pitkin County7,0332,5649,59773.3%
Gunnison County6,5662,7549,32070.5%
Logan County4,6834,2768,95952.3%
Grand County5,3572,9048,26164.8%
Archuleta County4,8462,9317,77762.3%
Otero County4,5853,0847,66959.8%
Las Animas County4,2482,5576,80562.4%
Alamosa County4,0932,4106,50362.9%
Moffat County2,8612,8345,69550.2%
Clear Creek County3,5541,6675,22168.1%
Rio Grande County3,1562,0625,21860.5%
Prowers County2,4492,0794,52854.1%
San Miguel County3,0701,0574,12774.4%
Yuma County1,9842,0384,02249.3%
Huerfano County2,4251,4023,82763.4%
Conejos County2,1351,3343,46961.5%
Gilpin County2,2581,0933,35167.4%
Ouray County2,2371,0103,24768.9%
Lake County2,2061,0353,24168.1%
Custer County1,8351,3483,18357.7%
Kit Carson County1,5161,6203,13648.3%
Rio Blanco County1,5491,5483,09750.0%
Saguache County1,9301,0082,93865.7%
Washington County1,1011,3212,42245.5%
Lincoln County1,1441,1582,30249.7%
Bent County1,1538702,02357.0%
Phillips County1,0101,0002,01050.2%
Costilla County1,1725581,73067.7%
Baca County8179081,72547.4%
Crowley County9307681,69854.8%
Dolores County6735851,25853.5%
Sedgwick County6035481,15152.4%
Cheyenne County39550389844.0%
Kiowa County33139472545.7%
Jackson County36433069452.4%
Hinsdale County31618850462.7%
Mineral County28617245862.4%
San Juan County29812242071.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition NN is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.