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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Amendment 81

Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS

Requires state and local police to notify federal DHS within 72 hours when a person charged with a violent crime or prior felony is not lawfully present. The forecast has Yes at 51.8 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 37% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentImmigrationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
37%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.8%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
55%
55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580
History and structure
51.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
51.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

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Amendment 81 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
El Paso County: Yes +62,280Weld County: Yes +39,535Douglas County: Yes +33,670Mesa County: Yes +22,870Adams County: Yes +11,968Pueblo County: Yes +11,925Fremont County: Yes +8,751Montrose County: Yes +7,647Elbert County: Yes +7,540Delta County: Yes +6,168Morgan County: Yes +5,307Teller County: Yes +5,189Logan County: Yes +4,753Montezuma County: Yes +3,541Moffat County: Yes +3,303Garfield County: Yes +2,911Park County: Yes +2,478Yuma County: Yes +2,414Otero County: Yes +2,399Prowers County: Yes +2,190Kit Carson County: Yes +1,950Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,811Archuleta County: Yes +1,760Washington County: Yes +1,648Las Animas County: Yes +1,514Rio Grande County: Yes +1,512Lincoln County: Yes +1,362Alamosa County: Yes +1,328Custer County: Yes +1,212Phillips County: Yes +1,165Baca County: Yes +1,109Grand County: Yes +1,105Conejos County: Yes +878Bent County: Yes +809Crowley County: Yes +789Huerfano County: Yes +721Cheyenne County: Yes +635Dolores County: Yes +628Sedgwick County: Yes +607Kiowa County: Yes +491Jackson County: Yes +364Chaffee County: Yes +359Saguache County: Yes +298Gilpin County: Yes +121Hinsdale County: Yes +108Mineral County: Yes +101Larimer County: Yes +99Clear Creek County: Yes +41Costilla County: Yes +37Lake County: Yes +25Denver County: No +100,141Boulder County: No +53,342Arapahoe County: No +5,032Jefferson County: No +4,065Broomfield County: No +3,186Summit County: No +2,288Pitkin County: No +2,009Eagle County: No +1,195San Miguel County: No +1,059Routt County: No +1,055Gunnison County: No +834La Plata County: No +214Ouray County: No +81San Juan County: No +47
Yes +271,426 net votes from 50 countiesStatewide Yes +3.6, a 96,878 vote marginNo +174,548 net votes from 14 counties

Projected vote

2,661,962 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,379,42051.8%
No1,282,54248.2%
Total2,661,962100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County189,240126,960316,20059.8%
Denver County106,400206,541312,94134.0%
Jefferson County150,663154,728305,39149.3%
Arapahoe County135,629140,661276,29049.1%
Douglas County111,86778,197190,06458.9%
Adams County99,94087,972187,91253.2%
Larimer County92,92492,825185,74950.0%
Boulder County57,635110,977168,61234.2%
Weld County91,74552,210143,95563.7%
Mesa County49,86226,99276,85464.9%
Pueblo County42,29930,37472,67358.2%
Broomfield County17,66620,85238,51845.9%
La Plata County15,01515,22930,24449.6%
Garfield County14,30211,39125,69355.7%
Eagle County11,22312,41823,64147.5%
Fremont County15,3896,63822,02769.9%
Montrose County14,5896,94221,53167.8%
Delta County11,2715,10316,37468.8%
Elbert County11,4803,94015,42074.4%
Summit County6,3468,63414,98042.4%
Teller County9,4924,30313,79568.8%
Routt County6,3687,42313,79146.2%
Montezuma County8,2174,67612,89363.7%
Chaffee County6,0785,71911,79751.5%
Morgan County8,2842,97711,26173.6%
Park County6,3143,83610,15062.2%
Pitkin County3,7945,8039,59739.5%
Gunnison County4,2435,0779,32045.5%
Logan County6,8562,1038,95976.5%
Grand County4,6833,5788,26156.7%
Archuleta County4,7683,0087,77661.3%
Otero County5,0342,6357,66965.6%
Las Animas County4,1602,6466,80661.1%
Alamosa County3,9162,5886,50460.2%
Moffat County4,4991,1965,69579.0%
Clear Creek County2,6312,5905,22150.4%
Rio Grande County3,3651,8535,21864.5%
Prowers County3,3591,1694,52874.2%
San Miguel County1,5342,5934,12737.2%
Yuma County3,2188044,02280.0%
Huerfano County2,2741,5533,82759.4%
Conejos County2,1731,2953,46862.7%
Gilpin County1,7361,6153,35151.8%
Ouray County1,5831,6643,24748.8%
Lake County1,6331,6083,24150.4%
Custer County2,1989863,18469.0%
Kit Carson County2,5435933,13681.1%
Rio Blanco County2,4546433,09779.2%
Saguache County1,6181,3202,93855.1%
Washington County2,0353872,42284.0%
Lincoln County1,8324702,30279.6%
Bent County1,4166072,02370.0%
Phillips County1,5884232,01179.0%
Costilla County8838461,72951.1%
Baca County1,4173081,72582.1%
Crowley County1,2434541,69773.2%
Dolores County9433151,25875.0%
Sedgwick County8792721,15176.4%
Cheyenne County76613189785.4%
Kiowa County60811772583.9%
Jackson County52916569476.2%
Hinsdale County30619850460.7%
Mineral County27917845761.1%
San Juan County18623341944.4%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 55.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 81 is forecast as a immigration measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.