2026 ballot measure forecast
Colorado Amendment 84
ID number required on mail ballots
Requires mail voters to give a signature plus an ID number such as last four SSN digits, checked against registration records. The forecast has Yes at 59.2 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 66% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
66%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
59.2%80% range 46 to 71
Needs
55%55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580- History and structure
- 59.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 59.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.
Also on the Colorado ballot
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Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
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Amendment 83
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Amendment 85
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Amendment 86
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Amendment 87
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Proposition 132
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91%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
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Proposition 134
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58%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
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Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +549,797 net votes from 60 countiesStatewide Yes +18.4, a 490,550 vote marginNo +59,247 net votes from 4 counties
Projected vote
2,661,960 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,576,255 | 59.2% |
| No | 1,085,705 | 40.8% |
| Total | 2,661,960 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso County | 208,664 | 107,536 | 316,200 | 66.0% |
| Denver County | 137,186 | 175,755 | 312,941 | 43.8% |
| Jefferson County | 175,277 | 130,114 | 305,391 | 57.4% |
| Arapahoe County | 158,006 | 118,283 | 276,289 | 57.2% |
| Douglas County | 123,915 | 66,148 | 190,063 | 65.2% |
| Adams County | 113,856 | 74,056 | 187,912 | 60.6% |
| Larimer County | 107,685 | 78,063 | 185,748 | 58.0% |
| Boulder County | 74,204 | 94,408 | 168,612 | 44.0% |
| Weld County | 99,447 | 44,507 | 143,954 | 69.1% |
| Mesa County | 53,790 | 23,064 | 76,854 | 70.0% |
| Pueblo County | 46,999 | 25,674 | 72,673 | 64.7% |
| Broomfield County | 20,975 | 17,543 | 38,518 | 54.5% |
| La Plata County | 17,437 | 12,807 | 30,244 | 57.7% |
| Garfield County | 16,088 | 9,605 | 25,693 | 62.6% |
| Eagle County | 13,197 | 10,444 | 23,641 | 55.8% |
| Fremont County | 16,281 | 5,746 | 22,027 | 73.9% |
| Montrose County | 15,558 | 5,973 | 21,531 | 72.3% |
| Delta County | 11,971 | 4,403 | 16,374 | 73.1% |
| Elbert County | 11,952 | 3,467 | 15,419 | 77.5% |
| Summit County | 7,703 | 7,277 | 14,980 | 51.4% |
| Teller County | 10,082 | 3,713 | 13,795 | 73.1% |
| Routt County | 7,546 | 6,244 | 13,790 | 54.7% |
| Montezuma County | 8,907 | 3,986 | 12,893 | 69.1% |
| Chaffee County | 6,986 | 4,811 | 11,797 | 59.2% |
| Morgan County | 8,651 | 2,610 | 11,261 | 76.8% |
| Park County | 6,889 | 3,261 | 10,150 | 67.9% |
| Pitkin County | 4,695 | 4,903 | 9,598 | 48.9% |
| Gunnison County | 5,048 | 4,272 | 9,320 | 54.2% |
| Logan County | 7,091 | 1,868 | 8,959 | 79.1% |
| Grand County | 5,241 | 3,019 | 8,260 | 63.5% |
| Archuleta County | 5,223 | 2,553 | 7,776 | 67.2% |
| Otero County | 5,414 | 2,256 | 7,670 | 70.6% |
| Las Animas County | 4,560 | 2,245 | 6,805 | 67.0% |
| Alamosa County | 4,311 | 2,193 | 6,504 | 66.3% |
| Moffat County | 4,619 | 1,077 | 5,696 | 81.1% |
| Clear Creek County | 3,043 | 2,178 | 5,221 | 58.3% |
| Rio Grande County | 3,636 | 1,582 | 5,218 | 69.7% |
| Prowers County | 3,500 | 1,028 | 4,528 | 77.3% |
| San Miguel County | 1,931 | 2,197 | 4,128 | 46.8% |
| Yuma County | 3,294 | 728 | 4,022 | 81.9% |
| Huerfano County | 2,512 | 1,314 | 3,826 | 65.7% |
| Conejos County | 2,367 | 1,102 | 3,469 | 68.2% |
| Gilpin County | 1,992 | 1,359 | 3,351 | 59.4% |
| Ouray County | 1,847 | 1,399 | 3,246 | 56.9% |
| Lake County | 1,889 | 1,352 | 3,241 | 58.3% |
| Custer County | 2,332 | 852 | 3,184 | 73.2% |
| Kit Carson County | 2,595 | 540 | 3,135 | 82.8% |
| Rio Blanco County | 2,518 | 580 | 3,098 | 81.3% |
| Saguache County | 1,825 | 1,112 | 2,937 | 62.1% |
| Washington County | 2,062 | 361 | 2,423 | 85.1% |
| Lincoln County | 1,878 | 424 | 2,302 | 81.6% |
| Bent County | 1,497 | 526 | 2,023 | 74.0% |
| Phillips County | 1,630 | 381 | 2,011 | 81.1% |
| Costilla County | 1,018 | 712 | 1,730 | 58.8% |
| Baca County | 1,442 | 283 | 1,725 | 83.6% |
| Crowley County | 1,300 | 398 | 1,698 | 76.6% |
| Dolores County | 980 | 278 | 1,258 | 77.9% |
| Sedgwick County | 909 | 241 | 1,150 | 79.0% |
| Cheyenne County | 774 | 124 | 898 | 86.2% |
| Kiowa County | 616 | 109 | 725 | 85.0% |
| Jackson County | 548 | 146 | 694 | 79.0% |
| Hinsdale County | 336 | 168 | 504 | 66.7% |
| Mineral County | 307 | 151 | 458 | 67.0% |
| San Juan County | 223 | 196 | 419 | 53.2% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 55.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 84 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.