2026 ballot measure forecast
Colorado Amendment 87
Graduated income tax for schools and health
Replaces the flat income tax with graduated rates from 3.7 to 8.4 percent, removing TABOR's single rate rule, funding K-12, health care, child care. The forecast has Yes at 50.0 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 33% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
33%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
50.0%80% range 37 to 63
Needs
55%55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580- History and structure
- 50.0% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 50.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure. Combined constitutional and statutory initiative. Conflicts with Prop 136; if both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails.
The campaign
Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party supports; Gov. Polis called it a 2.7 billion tax hike and Denver Gazette editorial board opposes.
Also on the Colorado ballot
Proposition NN
Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
95%
Amendment 81
Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS
37%
Amendment 82
Constitutional right to natural gas
18%
Amendment 83
Constitutional right to hunt and fish
76%
Amendment 84
ID number required on mail ballots
66%
Amendment 85
Plain language ballot questions
13%
Amendment 86
Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting
6%
Proposition 132
Tougher fentanyl penalties
91%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
91%
Proposition 134
School sports teams by biological sex
58%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
51%
Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +148,150 net votes from 20 countiesStatewide Even, a 263 vote marginNo +147,887 net votes from 44 counties
Projected vote
2,661,961 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,331,112 | 50.0% |
| No | 1,330,849 | 50.0% |
| Total | 2,661,961 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso County | 141,755 | 174,445 | 316,200 | 44.8% |
| Denver County | 192,985 | 119,956 | 312,941 | 61.7% |
| Jefferson County | 157,748 | 147,643 | 305,391 | 51.7% |
| Arapahoe County | 143,150 | 133,139 | 276,289 | 51.8% |
| Douglas County | 86,449 | 103,614 | 190,063 | 45.5% |
| Adams County | 92,410 | 95,502 | 187,912 | 49.2% |
| Larimer County | 95,121 | 90,627 | 185,748 | 51.2% |
| Boulder County | 103,772 | 64,840 | 168,612 | 61.5% |
| Weld County | 60,793 | 83,162 | 143,955 | 42.2% |
| Mesa County | 31,855 | 44,999 | 76,854 | 41.4% |
| Pueblo County | 33,367 | 39,306 | 72,673 | 45.9% |
| Broomfield County | 20,755 | 17,763 | 38,518 | 53.9% |
| La Plata County | 15,562 | 14,682 | 30,244 | 51.5% |
| Garfield County | 12,223 | 13,470 | 25,693 | 47.6% |
| Eagle County | 12,494 | 11,147 | 23,641 | 52.8% |
| Fremont County | 8,361 | 13,666 | 22,027 | 38.0% |
| Montrose County | 8,494 | 13,036 | 21,530 | 39.5% |
| Delta County | 6,335 | 10,039 | 16,374 | 38.7% |
| Elbert County | 5,329 | 10,091 | 15,420 | 34.6% |
| Summit County | 8,410 | 6,570 | 14,980 | 56.1% |
| Teller County | 5,340 | 8,455 | 13,795 | 38.7% |
| Routt County | 7,403 | 6,387 | 13,790 | 53.7% |
| Montezuma County | 5,445 | 7,448 | 12,893 | 42.2% |
| Chaffee County | 5,928 | 5,869 | 11,797 | 50.3% |
| Morgan County | 3,967 | 7,294 | 11,261 | 35.2% |
| Park County | 4,391 | 5,759 | 10,150 | 43.3% |
| Pitkin County | 5,565 | 4,032 | 9,597 | 58.0% |
| Gunnison County | 5,042 | 4,278 | 9,320 | 54.1% |
| Logan County | 2,952 | 6,007 | 8,959 | 33.0% |
| Grand County | 3,875 | 4,386 | 8,261 | 46.9% |
| Archuleta County | 3,410 | 4,366 | 7,776 | 43.9% |
| Otero County | 3,139 | 4,531 | 7,670 | 40.9% |
| Las Animas County | 2,993 | 3,812 | 6,805 | 44.0% |
| Alamosa County | 2,900 | 3,604 | 6,504 | 44.6% |
| Moffat County | 1,763 | 3,933 | 5,696 | 31.0% |
| Clear Creek County | 2,661 | 2,560 | 5,221 | 51.0% |
| Rio Grande County | 2,177 | 3,041 | 5,218 | 41.7% |
| Prowers County | 1,574 | 2,954 | 4,528 | 34.8% |
| San Miguel County | 2,458 | 1,670 | 4,128 | 59.5% |
| Yuma County | 1,211 | 2,812 | 4,023 | 30.1% |
| Huerfano County | 1,726 | 2,101 | 3,827 | 45.1% |
| Conejos County | 1,490 | 1,979 | 3,469 | 43.0% |
| Gilpin County | 1,678 | 1,673 | 3,351 | 50.1% |
| Ouray County | 1,689 | 1,557 | 3,246 | 52.0% |
| Lake County | 1,652 | 1,589 | 3,241 | 51.0% |
| Custer County | 1,228 | 1,956 | 3,184 | 38.6% |
| Kit Carson County | 915 | 2,221 | 3,136 | 29.2% |
| Rio Blanco County | 952 | 2,145 | 3,097 | 30.7% |
| Saguache County | 1,409 | 1,529 | 2,938 | 48.0% |
| Washington County | 643 | 1,779 | 2,422 | 26.5% |
| Lincoln County | 701 | 1,601 | 2,302 | 30.5% |
| Bent County | 766 | 1,257 | 2,023 | 37.9% |
| Phillips County | 623 | 1,388 | 2,011 | 31.0% |
| Costilla County | 874 | 856 | 1,730 | 50.5% |
| Baca County | 487 | 1,238 | 1,725 | 28.2% |
| Crowley County | 602 | 1,095 | 1,697 | 35.5% |
| Dolores County | 430 | 828 | 1,258 | 34.2% |
| Sedgwick County | 380 | 770 | 1,150 | 33.0% |
| Cheyenne County | 227 | 671 | 898 | 25.3% |
| Kiowa County | 193 | 531 | 724 | 26.7% |
| Jackson County | 230 | 464 | 694 | 33.1% |
| Hinsdale County | 223 | 281 | 504 | 44.2% |
| Mineral County | 202 | 256 | 458 | 44.1% |
| San Juan County | 230 | 189 | 419 | 54.9% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 55.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 87 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org, denvergazette.com. All measures.