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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Amendment 86

Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting

Requires both the independent commission and state Supreme Court to approve any mid decade congressional map and bars partisan maps. The forecast has Yes at 38.7 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 6% chance to pass.

Likely to failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentRedistrictingUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
6%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
38.7%
80% range 27 to 52
Needs
55%
55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580
History and structure
38.7% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
38.7% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

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Amendment 86 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Weld County: Yes +5,109Mesa County: Yes +4,917Elbert County: Yes +4,836Fremont County: Yes +4,217Logan County: Yes +3,317Morgan County: Yes +3,263Montrose County: Yes +2,947Delta County: Yes +2,698Moffat County: Yes +2,497Teller County: Yes +2,263Yuma County: Yes +1,878Kit Carson County: Yes +1,560Washington County: Yes +1,403Prowers County: Yes +1,386Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,379Lincoln County: Yes +1,048Baca County: Yes +909Phillips County: Yes +880Otero County: Yes +637Cheyenne County: Yes +555Custer County: Yes +540Crowley County: Yes +477Montezuma County: Yes +459Sedgwick County: Yes +421Kiowa County: Yes +417Dolores County: Yes +411Bent County: Yes +393Rio Grande County: Yes +284Jackson County: Yes +252Conejos County: Yes +31Denver County: No +182,167Boulder County: No +97,634Jefferson County: No +89,479Arapahoe County: No +82,366Larimer County: No +51,726Adams County: No +39,565El Paso County: No +18,492Douglas County: No +15,553Broomfield County: No +14,017La Plata County: No +8,664Eagle County: No +7,837Pueblo County: No +7,055Summit County: No +6,474Routt County: No +4,933Pitkin County: No +4,654Garfield County: No +3,991Gunnison County: No +3,454Chaffee County: No +2,909San Miguel County: No +2,177Clear Creek County: No +1,413Grand County: No +1,091Ouray County: No +991Lake County: No +877Gilpin County: No +807Saguache County: No +496Costilla County: No +443Alamosa County: No +324Huerfano County: No +262Las Animas County: No +191Archuleta County: No +182San Juan County: No +165Park County: No +19Hinsdale County: No +18Mineral County: No +14
Yes +51,384 net votes from 30 countiesStatewide No +22.5, a 599,056 vote marginNo +650,440 net votes from 34 counties

Projected vote

2,661,960 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,031,45238.7%
No1,630,50861.3%
Total2,661,960100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County148,854167,346316,20047.1%
Denver County65,387247,554312,94120.9%
Jefferson County107,956197,435305,39135.4%
Arapahoe County96,962179,328276,29035.1%
Douglas County87,255102,808190,06345.9%
Adams County74,173113,738187,91139.5%
Larimer County67,011118,737185,74836.1%
Boulder County35,489133,123168,61221.0%
Weld County74,53269,423143,95551.8%
Mesa County40,88635,96976,85553.2%
Pueblo County32,80939,86472,67345.1%
Broomfield County12,25026,26738,51731.8%
La Plata County10,79019,45430,24435.7%
Garfield County10,85114,84225,69342.2%
Eagle County7,90215,73923,64133.4%
Fremont County13,1228,90522,02759.6%
Montrose County12,2399,29221,53156.8%
Delta County9,5366,83816,37458.2%
Elbert County10,1285,29215,42065.7%
Summit County4,25310,72714,98028.4%
Teller County8,0295,76613,79558.2%
Routt County4,4299,36213,79132.1%
Montezuma County6,6766,21712,89351.8%
Chaffee County4,4447,35311,79737.7%
Morgan County7,2623,99911,26164.5%
Park County5,0665,08510,15149.9%
Pitkin County2,4727,1269,59825.8%
Gunnison County2,9336,3879,32031.5%
Logan County6,1382,8218,95968.5%
Grand County3,5854,6768,26143.4%
Archuleta County3,7973,9797,77648.8%
Otero County4,1533,5167,66954.2%
Las Animas County3,3073,4986,80548.6%
Alamosa County3,0903,4146,50447.5%
Moffat County4,0961,5995,69571.9%
Clear Creek County1,9043,3175,22136.5%
Rio Grande County2,7512,4675,21852.7%
Prowers County2,9571,5714,52865.3%
San Miguel County9753,1524,12723.6%
Yuma County2,9501,0724,02273.3%
Huerfano County1,7822,0443,82646.6%
Conejos County1,7501,7193,46950.4%
Gilpin County1,2722,0793,35138.0%
Ouray County1,1282,1193,24734.7%
Lake County1,1822,0593,24136.5%
Custer County1,8621,3223,18458.5%
Kit Carson County2,3487883,13674.9%
Rio Blanco County2,2388593,09772.3%
Saguache County1,2211,7172,93841.6%
Washington County1,9135102,42379.0%
Lincoln County1,6756272,30272.8%
Bent County1,2088152,02359.7%
Phillips County1,4455652,01071.9%
Costilla County6431,0861,72937.2%
Baca County1,3174081,72576.3%
Crowley County1,0876101,69764.1%
Dolores County8344231,25766.3%
Sedgwick County7863651,15168.3%
Cheyenne County72617189780.9%
Kiowa County57115472578.8%
Jackson County47322169468.2%
Hinsdale County24326150448.2%
Mineral County22223645848.5%
San Juan County12729241930.3%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 55.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 86 is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.