2026 forecast · Vermont Treasurer
Mike Pieciak is very likely to win Vermont's treasurer race.
Mike Pieciak vs Lynn LaFleur, with Mike Pieciak running again. The model has Pieciak ahead by 12.8 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +12.8Updated October 22, 2026
Mike Pieciak
Democrat
54.3%
178,819 projected votes
Lynn LaFleur
Republican
41.5%
136,787 projected votes
96%Pieciak
4%LaFleur
Pieciak all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Pieciak wins about 96 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Pieciak +55,140 net votes from 8 countiesStatewide D +12.8, a 42,031 vote marginLaFleur +13,109 net votes from 6 counties
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Pieciak D | 178,819 | 54.3% |
| Lynn LaFleur R | 136,787 | 41.5% |
| Zachary Hampl | 13,615 | 4.1% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Pieciak | LaFleur | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 178,820 | 136,789 | 13,614 | 329,223 | D +12.8 |
| Chittenden County | 55,610 | 29,207 | 3,659 | 88,476 | D +29.8 |
| Washington County | 18,988 | 11,368 | 1,309 | 31,665 | D +24.1 |
| Windsor County | 17,279 | 11,935 | 1,260 | 30,474 | D +17.5 |
| Rutland County | 12,093 | 16,771 | 1,245 | 30,109 | R +15.5 |
| Windham County | 15,658 | 6,676 | 963 | 23,297 | D +38.5 |
| Franklin County | 8,908 | 13,308 | 959 | 23,175 | R +19.0 |
| Addison County | 11,200 | 8,205 | 837 | 20,242 | D +14.8 |
| Bennington County | 9,659 | 7,933 | 759 | 18,351 | D +9.4 |
| Orange County | 7,712 | 7,247 | 645 | 15,604 | D +3.0 |
| Caledonia County | 6,543 | 7,588 | 610 | 14,741 | R +7.1 |
| Lamoille County | 7,108 | 5,503 | 544 | 13,155 | D +12.2 |
| Orleans County | 5,128 | 7,110 | 528 | 12,766 | R +15.5 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,927 | 2,202 | 178 | 4,307 | R +6.4 |
| Essex County | 1,007 | 1,736 | 118 | 2,861 | R +25.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +21.8 and D +3.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +8.5 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +41.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +10.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +13.3 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +12.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +21.8 and D +3.7.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Pieciak | LaFleur | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||