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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 forecast · Vermont Attorney General

Charity Clark is all but certain to win Vermont's attorney general race.

Charity Clark vs Ed Kemon, with Charity Clark running again. The model has Clark ahead by 13.5 points, with a 97 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +13.5Updated October 22, 2026
Charity Clark
Democrat
55.5%
182,714 projected votes
Ed Kemon
Republican
42.0%
138,263 projected votes
97%Clark
3%Kemon
Clark all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Clark wins about 97 of 100

Vermont Attorney General by county

Addison CountyBennington CountyCaledonia CountyChittenden CountyEssex CountyFranklin CountyGrand Isle CountyLamoille CountyOrange CountyOrleans CountyRutland CountyWashington CountyWindham CountyWindsor CountyChittendenWashingtonWindsorRutlandWindhamFranklinAddisonBenningtonOrangeCaledoniaLamoilleOrleans
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Chittenden County: Clark +27,290Windham County: Clark +9,242Washington County: Clark +7,912Windsor County: Clark +5,597Addison County: Clark +3,155Bennington County: Clark +1,855Lamoille County: Clark +1,703Orange County: Clark +559Rutland County: Kemon +4,597Franklin County: Kemon +4,352Orleans County: Kemon +1,947Caledonia County: Kemon +982Essex County: Kemon +727Grand Isle County: Kemon +256
Clark +57,313 net votes from 8 countiesStatewide D +13.5, a 44,452 vote marginKemon +12,861 net votes from 6 counties

Projected statewide vote

329,223 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Charity Clark D182,71455.5%
Ed Kemon R138,26342.0%
Other candidates8,2452.5%
Total329,223100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

14 counties
CountyClarkKemonOtherTotalMargin
Statewide182,715138,2638,245329,223D +13.5
Chittenden County56,77529,4852,21688,476D +30.9
Washington County19,39211,48079331,665D +25.0
Windsor County17,65412,05776330,474D +18.4
Rutland County12,37916,97675430,109R +15.3
Windham County15,9786,73658323,297D +39.7
Franklin County9,12113,47358123,175R +18.8
Addison County11,4458,29050720,242D +15.6
Bennington County9,8738,01846018,351D +10.1
Orange County7,8867,32739115,604D +3.6
Caledonia County6,6957,67736914,741R +6.7
Lamoille County7,2645,56133013,155D +12.9
Orleans County5,2507,19731912,766R +15.3
Grand Isle County1,9722,2281074,307R +5.9
Essex County1,0311,758722,861R +25.4

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +22.5D +4.5D +13.5

80 percent of simulations fall between D +22.5 and D +4.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorR +8.5
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +43.3
Blend of every legD +10.5
With incumbency and primary unityD +13.8
With polls, none in the raceD +13.5

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +22.5 and D +4.5.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedClarkKemonMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.