2026 forecast · Vermont Secretary Of State
Sarah Copeland Hanzas is very likely to win Vermont's secretary of state race.
Sarah Copeland Hanzas vs H. Brooke Paige, with Sarah Copeland Hanzas running again. The model has Hanzas ahead by 12.8 points, with a 97 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +12.8Updated October 22, 2026
Sarah Copeland Hanzas
Democrat
54.1%
178,194 projected votes
H. Brooke Paige
Republican
41.3%
135,993 projected votes
97%Hanzas
3%Paige
Hanzas all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Hanzas wins about 97 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hanzas +55,151 net votes from 8 countiesStatewide D +12.8, a 42,200 vote marginPaige +12,951 net votes from 6 counties
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Sarah Copeland Hanzas D | 178,194 | 54.1% |
| H. Brooke Paige R | 135,993 | 41.3% |
| Other candidates | 15,035 | 4.6% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Hanzas | Paige | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 178,193 | 135,993 | 15,037 | 329,223 | D +12.8 |
| Chittenden County | 55,406 | 29,029 | 4,041 | 88,476 | D +29.8 |
| Washington County | 18,919 | 11,300 | 1,446 | 31,665 | D +24.1 |
| Windsor County | 17,218 | 11,864 | 1,392 | 30,474 | D +17.6 |
| Rutland County | 12,055 | 16,679 | 1,375 | 30,109 | R +15.4 |
| Windham County | 15,599 | 6,634 | 1,064 | 23,297 | D +38.5 |
| Franklin County | 8,881 | 13,235 | 1,059 | 23,175 | R +18.8 |
| Addison County | 11,161 | 8,157 | 924 | 20,242 | D +14.8 |
| Bennington County | 9,626 | 7,887 | 838 | 18,351 | D +9.5 |
| Orange County | 7,686 | 7,205 | 713 | 15,604 | D +3.1 |
| Caledonia County | 6,522 | 7,546 | 673 | 14,741 | R +7.0 |
| Lamoille County | 7,083 | 5,471 | 601 | 13,155 | D +12.3 |
| Orleans County | 5,112 | 7,071 | 583 | 12,766 | R +15.3 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,921 | 2,189 | 197 | 4,307 | R +6.2 |
| Essex County | 1,004 | 1,726 | 131 | 2,861 | R +25.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +21.9 and D +3.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +8.5 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +42.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +10.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +13.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +12.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +21.9 and D +3.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hanzas | Paige | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||