2026 forecast · Vermont Auditor
Tim Ashe is very likely to win Vermont's auditor race.
Tim Ashe vs Ivar Kronick, an open seat. The model has Ashe ahead by 9.4 points, with a 91 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +9.4Updated October 22, 2026
Tim Ashe
Democrat
53.6%
176,626 projected votes
Ivar Kronick
Republican
44.3%
145,724 projected votes
91%Ashe
9%Kronick
Ashe very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Ashe wins about 91 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ashe +47,712 net votes from 7 countiesStatewide D +9.4, a 30,901 vote marginKronick +16,811 net votes from 7 counties
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Ashe D | 176,626 | 53.6% |
| Ivar Kronick R | 145,724 | 44.3% |
| Other candidates | 6,871 | 2.1% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Ashe | Kronick | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 176,626 | 145,725 | 6,872 | 329,223 | D +9.4 |
| Chittenden County | 55,242 | 31,387 | 1,847 | 88,476 | D +27.0 |
| Washington County | 18,817 | 12,187 | 661 | 31,665 | D +20.9 |
| Windsor County | 17,078 | 12,760 | 636 | 30,474 | D +14.2 |
| Rutland County | 11,786 | 17,695 | 628 | 30,109 | R +19.6 |
| Windham County | 15,611 | 7,200 | 486 | 23,297 | D +36.1 |
| Franklin County | 8,673 | 14,019 | 483 | 23,175 | R +23.1 |
| Addison County | 11,058 | 8,761 | 423 | 20,242 | D +11.3 |
| Bennington County | 9,514 | 8,454 | 383 | 18,351 | D +5.8 |
| Orange County | 7,577 | 7,701 | 326 | 15,604 | R +0.8 |
| Caledonia County | 6,401 | 8,032 | 308 | 14,741 | R +11.1 |
| Lamoille County | 7,011 | 5,870 | 274 | 13,155 | D +8.7 |
| Orleans County | 4,996 | 7,503 | 267 | 12,766 | R +19.6 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,886 | 2,331 | 90 | 4,307 | R +10.3 |
| Essex County | 976 | 1,825 | 60 | 2,861 | R +29.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.4 and D +0.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +8.5 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +40.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +9.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +9.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.4 and D +0.3.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ashe | Kronick | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||