2026 forecast · Ohio Treasurer
Seth Walsh is slightly favored to win Ohio's treasurer race.
Seth Walsh vs Jay Edwards, an open seat. The model has Walsh ahead by 2.4 points, with a 66 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +2.4Updated October 22, 2026
Seth Walsh
Democrat
50.7%
2,420,200 projected votes
Jay Edwards
Republican
48.3%
2,303,765 projected votes
66%Walsh
34%Edwards
Walsh favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Walsh wins about 66 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Walsh +741,396 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide D +2.4, a 116,437 vote marginEdwards +624,959 net votes from 77 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Walsh D | 2,420,200 | 50.7% |
| Jay Edwards R | 2,303,765 | 48.3% |
| Other candidates | 47,716 | 1.0% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Walsh | Edwards | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,420,203 | 2,303,766 | 47,711 | 4,771,680 | D +2.4 |
| Franklin County | 369,770 | 133,212 | 5,080 | 508,062 | D +46.6 |
| Cuyahoga County | 371,068 | 121,059 | 4,971 | 497,098 | D +50.3 |
| Hamilton County | 223,009 | 121,975 | 3,484 | 348,468 | D +29.0 |
| Summit County | 141,041 | 84,947 | 2,283 | 228,271 | D +24.6 |
| Montgomery County | 117,576 | 94,159 | 2,139 | 213,874 | D +10.9 |
| Lucas County | 101,521 | 55,854 | 1,589 | 158,964 | D +28.7 |
| Stark County | 68,026 | 82,249 | 1,517 | 151,792 | R +9.4 |
| Butler County | 60,435 | 88,007 | 1,500 | 149,942 | R +18.4 |
| Lorain County | 69,163 | 58,778 | 1,291 | 129,232 | D +8.0 |
| Warren County | 43,182 | 69,005 | 1,133 | 113,320 | R +22.8 |
| Delaware County | 54,994 | 53,321 | 1,093 | 109,408 | D +1.5 |
| Lake County | 49,753 | 54,429 | 1,052 | 105,234 | R +4.4 |
| Mahoning County | 51,804 | 42,634 | 954 | 95,392 | D +9.6 |
| Clermont County | 31,261 | 59,166 | 913 | 91,340 | R +30.6 |
| Medina County | 38,169 | 47,523 | 866 | 86,558 | R +10.8 |
| Trumbull County | 39,878 | 40,241 | 809 | 80,928 | R +0.5 |
| Licking County | 29,935 | 45,226 | 760 | 75,921 | R +20.1 |
| Greene County | 31,405 | 42,812 | 750 | 74,967 | R +15.2 |
| Portage County | 33,823 | 34,488 | 691 | 69,002 | R +1.0 |
| Fairfield County | 28,652 | 38,644 | 680 | 67,976 | R +14.7 |
| Wood County | 27,135 | 27,736 | 555 | 55,426 | R +1.1 |
| Clark County | 21,576 | 28,860 | 508 | 50,944 | R +14.3 |
| Richland County | 15,441 | 32,097 | 480 | 48,018 | R +34.7 |
| Miami County | 14,037 | 32,796 | 473 | 47,306 | R +39.7 |
| Geauga County | 19,481 | 26,174 | 461 | 46,116 | R +14.5 |
| Wayne County | 15,342 | 27,839 | 436 | 43,617 | R +28.6 |
| Columbiana County | 12,458 | 26,572 | 394 | 39,424 | R +35.8 |
| Allen County | 11,387 | 25,847 | 376 | 37,610 | R +38.5 |
| Ashtabula County | 15,320 | 19,589 | 353 | 35,262 | R +12.1 |
| Tuscarawas County | 12,212 | 22,050 | 346 | 34,608 | R +28.4 |
| Erie County | 16,250 | 15,969 | 325 | 32,544 | D +0.9 |
| Muskingum County | 10,497 | 20,793 | 316 | 31,606 | R +32.6 |
| Hancock County | 10,059 | 20,480 | 308 | 30,847 | R +33.8 |
| Union County | 10,685 | 18,272 | 292 | 29,249 | R +25.9 |
| Ross County | 9,967 | 16,460 | 267 | 26,694 | R +24.3 |
| Knox County | 7,672 | 18,092 | 260 | 26,024 | R +40.0 |
| Jefferson County | 9,267 | 16,262 | 257 | 25,786 | R +27.1 |
| Belmont County | 8,968 | 16,428 | 256 | 25,652 | R +29.1 |
| Washington County | 8,635 | 16,320 | 252 | 25,207 | R +30.5 |
| Scioto County | 8,506 | 16,421 | 251 | 25,178 | R +31.4 |
| Sandusky County | 9,322 | 14,396 | 240 | 23,958 | R +21.2 |
| Pickaway County | 7,105 | 15,830 | 231 | 23,166 | R +37.7 |
| Athens County | 14,850 | 7,742 | 228 | 22,820 | D +31.1 |
| Marion County | 7,590 | 14,637 | 225 | 22,452 | R +31.4 |
| Darke County | 3,905 | 17,528 | 217 | 21,650 | R +62.9 |
| Huron County | 6,859 | 14,280 | 213 | 21,352 | R +34.8 |
| Ashland County | 5,649 | 15,251 | 210 | 21,110 | R +45.5 |
| Lawrence County | 6,579 | 13,946 | 208 | 20,733 | R +35.5 |
| Seneca County | 7,304 | 13,110 | 206 | 20,620 | R +28.1 |
| Auglaize County | 3,898 | 16,435 | 205 | 20,538 | R +61.0 |
| Shelby County | 3,689 | 16,342 | 203 | 20,234 | R +62.5 |
| Ottawa County | 8,549 | 11,085 | 198 | 19,832 | R +12.8 |
| Mercer County | 3,362 | 15,567 | 191 | 19,120 | R +63.8 |
| Logan County | 4,229 | 14,158 | 185 | 18,572 | R +53.5 |
| Fulton County | 5,764 | 11,995 | 180 | 17,939 | R +34.7 |
| Preble County | 3,986 | 13,193 | 173 | 17,352 | R +53.1 |
| Madison County | 5,495 | 11,069 | 168 | 16,732 | R +33.3 |
| Brown County | 4,222 | 12,236 | 166 | 16,624 | R +48.2 |
| Crawford County | 4,307 | 11,912 | 164 | 16,383 | R +46.4 |
| Clinton County | 4,250 | 11,892 | 162 | 16,304 | R +46.9 |
| Putnam County | 2,647 | 13,450 | 163 | 16,260 | R +66.4 |
| Champaign County | 4,764 | 11,222 | 161 | 16,147 | R +40.0 |
| Highland County | 3,450 | 11,966 | 156 | 15,572 | R +54.7 |
| Defiance County | 4,847 | 10,220 | 153 | 15,220 | R +35.3 |
| Morrow County | 3,964 | 10,783 | 149 | 14,896 | R +45.8 |
| Williams County | 3,912 | 10,442 | 145 | 14,499 | R +45.0 |
| Guernsey County | 4,091 | 9,761 | 140 | 13,992 | R +40.5 |
| Perry County | 4,090 | 9,232 | 135 | 13,457 | R +38.2 |
| Coshocton County | 3,633 | 9,410 | 132 | 13,175 | R +43.8 |
| Henry County | 3,056 | 8,491 | 117 | 11,664 | R +46.6 |
| Van Wert County | 2,559 | 8,849 | 115 | 11,523 | R +54.6 |
| Carroll County | 3,148 | 7,871 | 111 | 11,130 | R +42.4 |
| Jackson County | 3,018 | 7,869 | 109 | 10,996 | R +44.1 |
| Hocking County | 3,830 | 6,766 | 107 | 10,703 | R +27.4 |
| Holmes County | 1,707 | 8,810 | 107 | 10,624 | R +66.9 |
| Hardin County | 2,804 | 7,670 | 106 | 10,580 | R +46.0 |
| Gallia County | 2,703 | 7,746 | 105 | 10,554 | R +47.8 |
| Adams County | 2,235 | 7,639 | 100 | 9,974 | R +54.2 |
| Fayette County | 2,385 | 7,487 | 100 | 9,972 | R +51.2 |
| Pike County | 2,965 | 6,376 | 95 | 9,436 | R +36.1 |
| Wyandot County | 2,485 | 6,462 | 91 | 9,038 | R +44.0 |
| Meigs County | 2,328 | 5,948 | 83 | 8,359 | R +43.3 |
| Paulding County | 1,856 | 5,398 | 74 | 7,328 | R +48.3 |
| Harrison County | 1,685 | 3,942 | 57 | 5,684 | R +39.7 |
| Morgan County | 1,549 | 3,808 | 54 | 5,411 | R +41.8 |
| Monroe County | 1,635 | 3,691 | 54 | 5,380 | R +38.2 |
| Noble County | 1,278 | 3,836 | 52 | 5,166 | R +49.5 |
| Vinton County | 1,305 | 3,231 | 46 | 4,582 | R +42.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.8 and R +4.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.5 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.8 and R +4.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Walsh | Edwards | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||